Why This Deep Red State Is a Battleground for the GOP’s Future | WSJ

- Idaho is red, really red. But within all that red, there's a battle playing out here, between a more traditional brand of Republicanism and a socially conservative hard right, and it could influence the future of the Republican Party in America. I'm Robbie Gramer. I'm a national security reporter at the "Wall Street Journal." I usually report on what's happening abroad, but now I've come back to Idaho, where I was born and spent my childhood. In this episode of Rooted In, I went back to my home state, where I spoke to conservative transplants and longtime locals. Ahead of the midterm elections, a key question for Idahoans is what brand of conservatism do they want? - Idaho is a testing ground for ultra conservative legislation. It can set precedents. - Idaho's population has grown dramatically recently, and the majority of the state's new residents are Republican, which has shifted the state's politics further right. - I say Idaho's kind of the last stand in America. We're watching just disarray and chaos at the national level. And so to me, the states are where the battle has to rage. - I wanted to find out how far right is Idaho prepared to go, and what might this mean for the identity of the Republican Party? I'm here in the Magic Valley, which is the agricultural heartland of Idaho. I used to come here all the time growing up as a kid visiting family. We have deep roots here. - Nailed it. - Mm-hmm. - Emily. - Perfect. - Stay cool. It's kind of the American, you know, motto right here. Times are changing though. - Clint Hostetler is one of the hardline conservative politicians who defines the new Republican Party brand in Idaho. - As a true conservative or traditional conservative, I believe in constitutional and individual liberties. I believe in protecting our families, traditional family values and our children, free market principles and lower taxes, and of course a fiscally restrained, responsible and accountable government. Of course, now you have to add in secure elections and secure borders. - And like many of those who share his beliefs, he only recently moved here from a bluer state. - We were led here, what I'll say by the Lord, about five years ago. My wife and I grew up in small farm communities in Northern California, and we just watched a once great very safe beautiful state just spiral downhill very quickly. When we got here, I felt like we'd moved out of that thick, dark black political oppression into the kind of midday sun of traditional Americana and conservative values. I know we didn't want California, Oregon, Washington, this culture and this political mindset to creep in. So, I figured, "Hey, I'm going to do my part." - Hostetler didn't specify what oppression he faced in California, but it was this feeling that led him to run for office. - So, how you doing, buddy? - Yeah, can I have a trade card? - You know it, you can get one of each. - Grab one of them. - I tell people I believe we're in a spiritual battle, right? As a Christian, that's what I believe. We're in a spiritual battle that manifests itself politically and socially like never before. - And this spiritual battle, I mean, against who? - Whether that enemy is an extreme leftist Marxist or if it's Satan or if it's woke corporations, whatever it is, we have to realize there is somebody working against us at certain levels. As you try to grasp and conserve, right? What America has always been, people are going to say, "You're changing us." And we're like, "No, we're just trying to hold the ground." - The Republican Party in Idaho has pushed hardline conservative bills on social issues, including a failed 2022 law that called for jailing librarians who offer books considered "harmful to minors." A near total abortion ban that health groups say criminalized medically necessary procedures and caused Idaho to lose over a third of its OBGYNs, and a bill that bans trans athletes from girls' sports. But the state's push for the right has made some lifelong Republicans in this deeply red state feel politically homeless. - We're just going to motor up there and we can talk a little. Worse for me. - What does it mean to be a Republican in Idaho today? - It's tough. I have not signed the Republican platform. - Even as an elected Republican. - As an elected Republican. There you go. Let's bring him right between those other lines. - He's fighting a bit, but we got him. - I'm an old school Republican, maybe Reagan era type thing. I believe in business. I believe in excellent education. Okay, a little trout. All right. We've been the recipient of a lot of people moving here as political refugees that have a really kind of different ideas than most Idahoans, in my opinion. They're very active politically and very much to the right. The rest of Idaho, the old leave people alone and respect them for what they believe, whether you agree with it or not, that's kind of gone by the wayside. - Do you still feel like you are a member of the Republican Party as it stands in Idaho today? - Some parts of it, yes. And other parts, no. I mean, I've been sanctioned by them because I didn't vote with the Freedom Foundation. - Idaho is under threat always from becoming the next blue state. - The Idaho Freedom Foundation is a think tank with a lobbying arm that pushes conservative values. They rate politicians and run attack ads against candidates that they think aren't conservative enough. Clint Hostetler has an A rating on their Freedom Index. What was your score from the Idaho Freedom Foundation? - I very proudly have an F from them. - Nelson has opposed a slew of Republican sponsored bills. This all contributed to his F rating, and his censure by local party officials. Did you feel political backlash from your constituents? - That just speaks to the division in the Republican Party right now. About half the people, congratulations, said thanks for standing up for common sense, and the other half for condemning you as being a liberal. Organizations like the Freedom Foundation have had a huge impact on how legislators vote and how some of my constituents think. - The Idaho Freedom Foundation did not respond to our request for comment. They make clear on their website that they don't speak to media. One of the issues the Idaho Freedom Foundation has supported is a hard stance on immigration. That's caused some pushback in the Republican Party, especially among ranchers in the dairy industry, which employs tens of thousands of people and generates nearly $4 billion per year statewide. How many had? - Ah, we're among about 1600. - 1600? All right. - You know the dairsty is struggling now just because of labor more than anything. - Why is labor such a struggle right now? - Politics, if you want the truth. We've had a representative here in one of our seats that she was hardline immigration and she lost her seat over it. - That legislator was outgoing Senator Glenneda Zuiderveld. One of the politicians who Clint Hostetler said encouraged him to run. Earlier this year, three dairy farms cut business ties with her husband because of her stance on immigration. - A Magic Valley senator puts three dairies on blast for ending business relationships with her husband. - Hiring illegals is against the law. Sorry you don't like those politics. Zuiderveld did not respond to our multiple requests for a comment. In the latest primaries, she and four other hardline conservatives were voted out by more moderate voters like David Silva. - I'm more a centralist, not a hard righter or hard left. - I mean, what's your message to some of those state and local politicians, some who got out for- - Actually you got to be open-minded, right? I mean, my folks came from Portugal with five kids in tow, not speaking the language, but they made it work, right? And sometimes you got to have a little compassion for the people, not just this is what we're going to do and if you don't fit this mold, you're out. That's not right. - Christina Lords is a fifth-generation Idahoan. She's covered Idaho politics for over a decade. - I think people need to understand just how Republican Idaho is. The political battles are between the more moderate part of the Republican Party and the far right. - Has the far right in Idaho hit a ceiling? - No. No, I don't think so. I think it's all going to depend on if people continue to move here for the reasons that we're starting to see that they have. Idaho feels like a safe place for a lot of people that are really looking for a conservative place to be and conservative place to raise their family. If this continues to become a safe haven for very far right politically minded people, people that are okay with taking rights away from LGBTQ people, people that do feel like public tax dollars should go to private education, the state of Idaho is the first state to pass an anti-transgender athlete bill. I do think things will pass here before they'll pass elsewhere and it can create case law and set precedents and send things to the U.S. Supreme Court. - The fear voiced by some Idahoans is that out of staters are trying to turn Idaho into something it never was. And the fear voice by some of the further right conservatives is that Idaho is at risk of being pulled to the left. I went to one of the spots in the state up in the mountains where this is all playing out, a place I spent a lot of time as a kid backpacking, hiking, and fishing. - So, Robbie, you've been coming here a while? - Yeah, I have been coming here ever since I was a little kid. My family took me to Redfish Lake all the time. - Yeah, what's your favorite thing on the menu? - Oatmeal pancakes. Before every hike, before every backpacking trip, I always need oatmeal pancakes. - Tim Cron, is a different kind of out-of-stater. He moved here in the '90s as a ski bum. He's been here ever since running a popular bakery with his wife, and for the first time, he can see the potential for an independent candidate. - There's now candidates that are running as independents that are giving Idahoans a real alternative to what has been going on on the federal and local level for a long time. People who are concerned about selling off of public lands, people who want to work across the aisle with both Democrats and Republicans. - The tilt even further right isn't uniform across Idaho though. Take Todd Achilles, an independent candidate who is mounting the first credible non-Republican campaign in years against longtime Senator James Risch, in this year's midterm elections. - In one of our polls that we released about a month ago, about 75% of Idahoans said, "I want a politician that's going to work with both sides of the aisle." I mean, those are real Idaho Western values. - Nonpartisan polling of this racist scam, but polls that are publicly available show Achilles' chances of victory are slim. Still, the rise of independent candidates like Achilles, may be an unintended consequence for the hard rights push into Idaho. - It's the more they try to impose like all the social issues, you know, dictate how people just look at all the laws that go through the Idaho legislature that are almost all social issues. The more you dictate that, the more you offend people. - So, in other words, you think the far right in Idaho is actually pushing more Idahoans to the center or even the left? - Very much so. - Idaho isn't turning blue anytime soon, but with President Trump no longer on the ballot, Idaho's politics could be an early indicator of the Republican Party's direction nationwide. I saw firsthand the energy behind this surge of support for a new generation of hardline conservative leaders, but at the same time, I also saw pushback from longtime Idahoans who yearn for the days of more traditional politics. Ultimately, Idaho is a litmus test for the rest of the country. Will hardline conservatives hit a wall or will they surge in popularity?