SPX & NDX Hit Record Highs as Crude Oil Slides to Key Support

86,000 and change right now. So that's how we're looking as we kick start this fresh tradingy.n hour into the s here we have had a bit of ut this morning as well. But let's just get to Katie now for a market thought and the levels you're watching right now on the S&P this record setting day here. Just talk us t what you're seeing on the screens right now. KG well, Sam, we are seeing breadth expanding today and we are seeing the S&P 500 as well as some of the other indexes hitting all time highs here. So this is actually a really strong day to the session. In fact, if you're looking at the S&P 500 equal weight it's up about 0.7%. Pretty much matching what the market cap weighted index is doing. So this is not really just a concentration withi technology stocks or even communication services. You already kind of highlighted the semis in some respects. The memory names are actually pulling back here a little bit, but you're s some really good strength when it comes to utilities, which we'll talk about a story around that later, as well as industrials, industri about 1.1%. illar looking very strong today. So this is kind of that market breadth expansion that we been kind of speaking about over the last couple of trading sessions. And it seems li we are seeing some follow through at least now. Now volatility itself is sitt around 15.5. So we're expecting less than a 1% move. But to the upside I'm looking at 78. 35 is a majo area of resistance. There has b call spread here. A significant amount of contracts between 7850 and 7860. So somebody is taking a shot that we can mlittle bit higher above my that I've been kind of highlighting here, but we'll see what actually happens to the dow You want to be able to hold 7800. We breow that 7780. But this is actually looike a very strong start to the day. And hopefully it's able to last wherds are, where they're at right now, which is pretty much flat on the session. Yeah. mentioned, I mean breadth looking supportive to your point. I mean it's a much more sort of broad based rally than we've been talking about with a handful of stocks sort of carrying this. And I know that you and I were speaking about that yesterday, how the metrics had looked good. And you pointed out as well that we typically see these kind of follow through days with setups like we yesterday. So let's see how long it holds. But I did mention the international trade dat came through this morning with that trade deficit. I mean, winding $105.6 billion. I was looki the export numbers for August, 1.4%, but the imports caught my eye 4.3%, the capital goods, $146 billio guess that speaks to the amount of that the country is having to bring in right now to fuel the AI infrastructure build out, but it's also higher oil prices. So this seems to be a value story and a volume story. KG just walk us throu what this all means. Yeah. It does appear that maybe some of the backlog that we've seen in some of the PMI data, especially on the manufacturing side, is starting to kind of come through here the United States. And, you know, the administration was looking for deficits to kind of close, and we're actually seeing it widen out now that actually can be a tailwind for a lot of these companies. As you talked about, the AI names as well as industrials, energy is going to have an impact on that a little bit. But that should be morn export story rather than an iort story. Just given the fact that we are kind kfilling some of the supply within the globe because of the disruptions within the Strait of Hormuz as well as the Babndab. So second tier, third tier type of e We did have some economic optimism data that came in a little bit better than the Street's expectations, but the trade balance and deficit I thought was very interesting. And I thinks where you are seeing maybe this splitetween where yields are right now, where we are still seeing them relatively elevated, even though volatility in the yield space is coming in a little bit lower. But are still seeing maybe some of these held credit names like an Oracle for that matter, their credit default swaps, they've been moving higher over the last couple of days. actually we're starting to see that kind of top out. And we're starting to gh yield credit spreads starting to move back to the inside here if you will. And that also is conducive for equities moving higher. So the economic data once again not a huge deal with that trade balance I thought was actually very surprising just given the the narrative that we've heard from the administration and the direction they would like to see that to go. Yeah, I was listening. I heard that that could be a record if you take out Liberation Day as So something to keep an eye on. We know that this feeds into GDP as well.re you looking at the energy c this morning? KG Because I'm seeing that it looks like the Saudi led coalition, Yemen is obviously, I gue making some progress against the Houthis right now, somethin also caught my eye in diesel was some of these comments out o Goldman Sachs, which said that basically the prices should remain high to try to contend with recovering consumption right now so that it doesn't overwome of these constrained refineries. How are you looking across oil and diesel right now? Yeah. So from an oil standpoint, we are down about 1.6%. is actually a key area of support that we are hitting right now. So I would not be surprised if we actually get a little bit more of a retracement bounce, maybe not in the US equity session, but usually ove is where we see the strikes kind of increasing within both of the straits that we ioned earu look at the trend line from the lows, we're pretty much hittinge as w the volume weighted average price from February. Sog avers well as trend lines at this particular level, a small bounce or even a bounce up to $95.11. That 20 moving average would not be outside of the realm of possibility and outside of the norm here. But it does appear that we want to see that the market wants to see this kind of break down a little bit more, even though we are still seeing constraints when it comes to refiners. Now diesel down about 2.7%. We are seeing a release from the EU about 100 million barrels, i I'm not mistaken, on the diesel and byproduct front. And then also, we hav a situation here in the Unite States where we are reducing ofs that y seeing between red dye diesel, as wellust regular diesel. There's different tax mechanisms. So that's also helping out prices to the downside here. But there's geopoli risk that's still inherent in this market until that actually abates here, 82 to $85 is something that could be a normalized for crude oil. But if we h a normalization when it comes to prices on energy and we have a normalization when it comes to yields, I think equity markets can digest that and continue to move higher. Yeah. It's been fascinating how even with elevated yields it looks like this tech rally hasn't stopped. And you know it feels like they. Let's talk about one of the big dealse're seeing in the market this morning around Energy Constellation, one of the top names on the S&P 500 today. Off the back of this deal with Google. Walk us ugh thf that. Yeah. So this is actually a two part deal But Google is signing a msive 3.59GW deal with Constellation Energy. This i going to be the product supplied on the PJM grid. Now the first part of the deal is the supply of 900MW, which will come from the nuclear reactors from Constellation gy. g to invest around $4.3 billion to kind of expand their capacity and their output here over time. And theecond part of this deal is that consten will provide Google 2.7GW of power over a longer span of time over a 20 ye deal here. So it's a two part one. But at the end of the day, we are seeing Constellation Energy up about 14% on the session trying to kind of break out to the upside here. And we have actually a couple of deals that they have been trying to sign and get through the finish line here over the last couple of days. So they have had a lot of positive news flow that's also impacting the nuclear trade just in general. And then that's what's also fueling the utility outperformance that we've seen over the last two days. So a rea good sign. Google alphabet has done a phenomenal job trying to secure the power it needs for the future. And they're doing that not only through nuclear but also renewable energy, as well as some of the other, you know, traditional sources energy as well, like natural gas. So they continue to sign these deals. This is a positive when it comes to dustry. And we'll see more infrastructurebet Coast. Yeah. And a n of states covered as well o years. I mean certainly is good news. And can understand why we're seeing the biggesttran sincepril. So we'll continue to keep our eyes on that story. Thanks for the