Even though BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) has led other institutions in renewed Bitcoin ( BTC ) accumulation so far this week, Glassnode , an on-chain data analytics platform, has signaled a potential crash below $80,000.
On October 22, 2026, Glassnode stated that Bitcoin price must not breach a major support level around $81,500. Furthermore, this liquidity floor was recently reclaimed after it proved a strong resistance level in May’s bull run.
Most importantly, the firm highlighted that $81,500 currently coincides with the Spot ETF Cost Basis , which reveals the average purchase price of Bitcoin held by all of the United States spot exchange-traded funds ( ETFs ).
Bitcoin market cost basis. Source: Glassnode
The on-chain data analytics platform argued earlier on Thursday that Bitcoin price could find its next support level at $77,600. Moreover, this range coincides with the True Market Mean Price, which is based on the average aggregate acquisition price across all active market participants.
“The same level capped the May rally before a deep drop, and caught last week’s sweep from just below. A convincing close below it would put mid $70K levels back into play,” Glassnode pointed out .
In a worst-case scenario for renewed bullish sentiment, Glassnode’s metrics set $74,800 as robust support. Reinforcing this is the fact that this level overlaps with the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, which shows the average purchase price for coins traded within the last 155 days.
Bitcoin ETFs absorb selling pressure
Despite BTC’s selloff on Thursday, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ( IBIT ) has led other spot Bitcoin ETFs in inflows so far this week, as Finbold detailed .
On October 22, BlackRock’s IBIT accumulated 384.77 BTC, worth $31.4 million, as per an update from Onchain Lens.
BTC price performance on October 22
Over the past 24 hours, BTC price had tumbled more than 4%, trading at approximately $80,989 at press time. As such, the crypto asset had a market capitalization of $1.7 trillion.
BTC price performance on Thursday. Source: CoinMarketCap
Amid heightened selling pressure on Thursday, Glassnode cautioned about a possible capitulation below $80,000 if BTC price consistently closes below $81,500.
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The post Here’s why Bitcoin price could crash despite renewed ETF inflows appeared first on Finbold .
