TLDR:
Crypto prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket reached a record $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume, largely from short-term Bitcoin and other crypto price contracts.
Bloomberg reported that crypto ranked second to sports on both platforms, although the report did not break down volume by asset, venue, or contract.
Coinbase’s event-contract product is operated by Kalshi, giving the exchange access to markets without running the underlying marketplace itself.
State disputes over sports-related contracts could influence expansion; Michigan’s agreement with Coinbase limited sports contracts but did not resolve the wider legal question.
Crypto prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket logged a combined $2.7 billion in weekly notional volume last week. Bitcoin and other short-term crypto price contracts drove much of that volume. Crypto ranks second only to sports on both platforms said. The record reflects participation in event-based contracts tied to digital-asset prices.
According to Dune Analytics data cited by Bloomberg, crypto exchanges are seeking new activity as spot trading volumes decline. Coinbase offers Kalshi-powered crypto prediction markets to eligible customers. Legal challenges to sports contracts in U.S. states could influence how widely exchanges choose to expand.
Crypto Prediction Markets Set a Weekly Volume Record
The report identifies short-term price moves as a draw. A contract ties a position to an outcome over a specified period, so activity can build around Bitcoin and other token prices. These crypto prediction markets track contract turnover, rather than investment flows into coins. The weekly total covers event contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, not spot purchases or sales on crypto exchanges. Together, these categories measure activity separately from spot trading.
Bitcoin Price Bets Help Push Weekly Crypto Volume on Kalshi and Polymarket to Record $2.7B
Bloomberg, citing data compiled by a Dune Analytics user, reported that weekly notional volume in crypto-related contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket hit a record $2.7 billion last week,… pic.twitter.com/pAS4rbuQAR
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) October 24, 2026
Notional volume counts the face value of contracts traded; it is not the amount users deposited or the platforms’ revenue. Contracts can change hands before resolution, adding turnover without creating a new event. Crypto prediction markets can report high activity even when deposits, unique participants, or concentration among traders remain unknown. The number measures gross trading activity, not the amount of capital at risk. It also cannot show whether traders expect Bitcoin prices to rise or fall.
Crypto ranked second only to sports on both platforms, Bloomberg reported. That places the category ahead of other event types, while sports remained the largest source of activity. Bitcoin’s continuous price movement creates frequent outcomes for contracts with short time horizons, and other tokens widen the range of markets. The headline total alone cannot show whether activity clustered around one venue or coin. One week’s volume does not establish whether that pace will persist.
Bitcoin Bets Drive Crypto Exchanges Toward Prediction Markets
Exchanges are moving into crypto prediction markets as spot activity cools. The Financial Times reported that crypto companies are adding prediction products while spot trading volumes have weakened. Some are building venues; others are partnering with established operators. Event contracts offer another product inside familiar trading apps, helping platforms seek activity beyond spot trades and compete for customer attention.
Coinbase’s crypto prediction markets are operated by Kalshi, according to Coinbase’s help center. The partnership gives Coinbase access to event contracts without building an exchange operator itself. Coinbase’s markets cover crypto prices and other outcomes, subject to regional availability and eligibility. Coinbase says BTC and ETH price contracts settle using a 60-second CF Benchmarks average.Kalshi determines outcomes under each contract’s rules. The arrangement shows how dedicated operators can power prediction products inside broader financial platforms.
Sports contracts face legal challenges in several states. Regulators argue that event contracts tied to games fall under state gambling laws, while platforms cite federal derivatives oversight. Michigan’s gaming regulator said Coinbase agreed to stop offering new sports contracts in the state and close existing positions by October 10. The restriction applied to sports contracts, not all event markets. The agreement did not settle the wider dispute. As reported, dozens of states have taken legal action over sports-related contracts .
These disputes may shape how far crypto exchanges expand . State-by-state restrictions can complicate nationwide launches, while unclear product boundaries raise compliance costs. Coinbase’s Michigan agreement shows that access to one category can be limited even as the broader product grows. Exchanges must weigh expected demand against legal risk before adding markets or opening them in new jurisdictions. Court rulings could change product availability.
The post Crypto Prediction Markets Set New $2.7B Weekly Volume Record appeared first on Blockonomi .
