Bitcoin is approaching a make-or-break weekend. After failing to hold $83,000, the cryptocurrency is now facing a more uncomfortable level at $80,000.
Analyst Benjamin Cowen warns that a weekly close below $83,000 on October 25 would strengthen his bearish outlook for the rest of 2026. His warning comes as Bitcoin faces pressure well beyond its own price chart.
Why Bitcoin’s $80,000 Level Matters
The latest failed rally has already punished bullish traders. During one four-hour selloff, long positions accounted for $91.19 million of $95.22 million in crypto liquidations.
More concerning, Glassnode estimates that companies holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets paid about $80,000 per coin on average.
Falling below that level would put the average corporate treasury position into a loss. It would not automatically force companies to sell, but it could weaken confidence.
A plausible path to consider (in order).
Becomes void if Bitcoin gets and holds back above $83k
-Bitcoin weekly close below $83k (again)
-Fakeout confirmed (Oct 25)
-Fed does not raise rates (Oct 28)
-PCE comes in hot (Oct 29)
-Oil spikes over the Iran war (~$120)
-Long end…
— Benjamin Cowen (@benjamincowen) October 24, 2026
A separate BeInCrypto analysis identifies $77,876 as the next downside level if selling persists, followed by a support zone between roughly $76,700 and $72,500.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs also lost about $322 million on October 22, suggesting institutional buying has weakened.
What Happens to Bitcoin Next Week?
The calendar offers little relief. The Federal Reserve meets October 27–28, with Cowen expecting interest rates to stay unchanged. September inflation data follows on October 29.
Oil adds another complication . Brent settled at $116.72 on Friday as Middle East supply fears intensified. Expensive energy could keep inflation elevated, while rising Treasury yields make speculative investments less attractive.
Bitcoin’s Extreme Volatility in October
History also gives bears ammunition. Binance Research puts Bitcoin’s average decline during previous US midterm election years at 56%. But that record covers only three Bitcoin cycles, making it a warning rather than a reliable prediction.
There is also a clear way for Bitcoin to break Cowen’s bearish scenario.
For now, the immediate test is whether buyers defend $80,000. A sustained recovery above $83,000 would weaken the bearish case.
Losing $80,000 could expose Bitcoin to another wave of selling just as November’s US midterm elections approach.
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