Bitcoin ETF demand returned last week, then faded. Now price is testing the ETF buyers’ cost basis
Money came back into US spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds last week, but it didn’t stay. The funds took in about $1.07 billion over the first three sessions, then lost $773.5 million over the final two, according to preliminary Farside data. That left a provisional net inflow of $301.2 million for the week to October 23. Bitcoin, meanwhile, slipped back toward $80,000, close to the level where the average ETF buyer would start losing money.
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Earlier:
Bitcoin buyers are fighting back, but sellers aren’t finished. Here are the two prices swing traders should watch
Strategy bitcoin purchases shrink as buybacks take priority ahead of earnings
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What happened
The week opened strongly. Spot bitcoin ETFs took in $526.7 million on Monday, $23.2 million on Tuesday and $524.8 million on Wednesday. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) led the way, drawing $665.2 million on Monday, its largest single-day inflow since October 2025.
The mood then reversed. Thursday brought $635.6 million in outflows, the largest daily withdrawal since June, followed by another $137.9 million on Friday. IBIT itself saw $254.1 million leave on Thursday and $110.3 million on Friday, though it still finished the week with net inflows of $565.7 million.
The week did end a run of two straight weeks of outflows. Even so, US spot bitcoin ETFs remain about $313.5 million in net outflows for October so far.
Why it matters
When investors buy shares in a spot bitcoin ETF, the fund buys bitcoin to back them. When they sell, the fund may sell bitcoin. That makes ETF flows a useful, if imperfect, gauge of demand through these products. They don’t show who is buying or why, and a strong day of inflows is not the same as a sustained trend.
The price response is the other half of the story. Bitcoin fell about 3.45% over the two days of outflows, and it briefly dipped below $80,000 over the weekend before recovering toward $80,600. Early-week inflows didn’t lift price meaningfully, and the late-week selling pushed it lower.
The level traders are watching
Coinbase Institutional has identified $80,000 to $82,000 as a key support zone. Its reasoning combines two reference points: an estimated average cost basis of $81,300 for ETF holders, and the 50-day moving average near $81,700.
The cost basis matters because it marks roughly where the typical ETF investor breaks even. While price holds above it, holders are sitting on modest gains. A sustained move below could leave many underwater, and some may choose to sell rather than wait. Coinbase warns that a lasting break below the zone could expose bitcoin to further losses toward $73,000 to $75,000.
A shift in who’s buying
There is a wider change in the background. Coinbase Institutional notes that corporate treasury companies bought about $14.5 billion of bitcoin in the first half of 2026, while US spot ETFs recorded nearly $5 billion in net selling. Since August, that has flipped: ETFs have attracted about $6.4 billion, against $1.5 billion for corporate treasuries.
That matters because the biggest corporate buyer, Strategy, has cut its weekly purchases to a few hundred coins in recent weeks. If ETFs are now the main source of steady demand, the swings in their flows carry more weight for price than they did earlier in the year.
The macro backdrop
Interest rates add another layer of risk. US producer prices rose 1.3% month on month in September, the largest increase since March 2022, and markets have raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike in December. Higher rates tend to tighten financial conditions and make yield-paying assets more attractive than non-yielding ones such as bitcoin. That relationship is not fixed, but it is a headwind worth watching.
Ethereum went the other way
Ether ETFs had a weaker week, with $220.7 million in net outflows. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) accounted for $233.2 million of withdrawals, losing money on four straight days before a small inflow across the group on Friday.
What to watch next
The first thing to watch is whether bitcoin holds the $80,000 to $82,000 zone. A close back above the ETF cost basis, alongside renewed inflows, would suggest last week’s selling was a pause rather than a turn. Continued outflows while price trades below $81,300 would point to ETF holders cutting losses, and would put the $73,000 to $75,000 area in view.
The next week of Farside data will show which way it is breaking. Watch the flow trend and the price response together before treating any single day of inflows as a bullish signal. For traders, the practical point is that the ETF buyers’ cost basis has become a level with real behavioural weight: where many holders break even is often where their decisions change.
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This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
