Israel Election Tests Netanyahu’s Hold on Power

Welcome, Erin. It's obviously an important day. Do you have an expectation as to what the end result of this election is going to be? What would it mean for Israel if this does mean the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's reign in power? Yeah, two separate questions. Thanks for having me, Joe. And carefully look at every poll over the last couple of years. Pretty constant that they basically reveal that neither the current coalition nor the opposition has the necessary 60 plus one to put together a government. Right now you're seeing unprecedented turnout. And if that turnout is largely driven by Palestinian citizens of Israel, um, who are now voting in very large numbers. Uh, that is going to be, uh, bad news for Benjamin Netanyahu would also mean is that the smaller parties, one right wing party in particular, which is to the right of some of, uh, or at least reflects the, um, the Jewish supremacist views of um, Netanyahu's coalition partners. Bezalel Smotrich in my room. Ben-Gvir. If that party doesn't cross the threshold, those votes are wasted, which would be 2000 cuts. Um, advantages. This is going to come down. I think Dan had it right. Two a prolonged period of, uh, politicking, which could extend weeks, uh, if not longer. There is one option, however, if in fact, the Arab vote turns out to be as large as it is, and two, where three Arab parties, um, two in the main, end up with 14 to 16 seats. Connie Hazan Cote will probably have the option of forming a minority government. That is to say, he won't have 60 plus one of Jewish Zionist parties, but he could count on the support of the Arab parties from the outside. And a minority government might not last very long, but it could do significant business on the domestic side. Uh, should that option come to fruition? Fascinating. Aaron, it's great to have you on this Election Day. Kailey asked Dan about the impact of Donald Trump's endorsement, and we've been struck by the images, massive, uh, posters of the two of them standing together with fighter jets flying over them. In some cases, Donald Trump is actually larger in the image than Benjamin Netanyahu. What is the impact of of that type of political optics, knowing that this is being framed as a referendum on October 7th? Yeah. You know, during Trump, 1.20, in 2019 to 2022, Israel had five elections in four years. Donald Trump's support for Benjamin Netanyahu was a caretaker government was very, very important. He declared Jerusalem the capital of Israel and moved the embassy. He declared Golan to be sovereign Israeli territory, and he created a margin for Israeli behavior and maneuver. Um, both in Gaza, in the West Bank. That was unprecedented this time around. Trump 2.0. If you look at what the president has done for Benjamin Netanyahu, it occurred in two social media posts, one of which report suggest the prime minister asked again for his support. There's no way to tell. And a close election, guys. But you know, I'm thinking of my grandmother's chicken soup. You dumb. It sometimes didn't help, but it couldn't hurt. And the reality is, for Benjamin Netanyahu. Uh, in a close election, um, Trump could sway additional voters. I don't think it's going that way, though, this time around. The question is if, in fact, you end up in a period of weeks and months or let's say, weeks where Benjamin Netanyahu was the caretaker government and the president is going to make good on his threats after our midterms, to escalate a military campaign against Iran. How would that play in Israeli politics? Would it be perceived as a transparent move on the part of Netanyahu to buck up his credentials and security? Or would the opposition, um, and the security chiefs, which have already pushed back Netanyahu's efforts to get into this war before the Israeli elections? Would that work against him? This period in the next couple of weeks, increasingly domestically here, I only hope our elections are presumed to be as free and fair and go without interference and intervention as the Israeli elections appear to be. That's a huge concern. But when the elections are over, to double down on the point you were making, Aaron, do you believe that there will be a return to kinetic activity against Iran on both the United States and Israeli parts? I mean, I think certainly on the part of the ministration, the president will have to decide. And so would presumably another a new Israeli prime minister. And Gary. His encodes views on Iran are not Benjamin Netanyahu. Yes, ISE Encode believes that Iran with a bomb is the next central threat. But no, I shouldn't quote in his security chiefs are not going to look at military action as a sort of, uh, magic bullet to change the regime. I think you'll see a certain amount of risk aversion with Gary Eisen quote that you did not see with Benjamin Netanyahu is only two risk ready to continue, um, his efforts to maintain conflict against a monstrous Bolagh and of course, against, uh, against Iran. I don't see a major difference between Isaac quoted Netanyahu and some of the national security issues. I think guys in court would crack down on settler violence and settler terrorism. But on Hamas, I think they're going to be equally tough. And, um, and on Hezbollah, the real change Guys would be internal. You'd get a state commission of inquiry. You might get legislation which basically solves the issue of the conscription issue, which has created serious tension between secular and the ultra-Orthodox, uh, Israelis. And you'd get more of a civility, frankly, of discourse, uh, in Israeli politics. All of that would be exceedingly welcome if this, in fact, results in the end of Benjamin Netanyahu's political career. What does that mean for the legal path that awaits him? Fascinating question on trial for bribery, fraud and breach of trust in Jerusalem District Court before three judges, now five years and running. Well, nothing, you know, idiosyncratic. The only Israeli prime minister to be indicted while being prime minister. Two choices. Number one, he's convicted. Or alternatively, he negotiates. And the Israeli president Herzog, I think, would like to pardon Netanyahu if he admitted his guilt and ended his political career. We're a long way from Tipperary on that one. But Benjamin Netanyahu's politics and foreign policy are inextricably linked together. Most of the decisions he made over the last three years, including the prosecution of the war at least a year in after the first year, was made in large part because he needed desperately to stay in power. This is not a political legacy issue for Netanyahu. It's an existential. It's a freedom issue. One of his predecessors, Old Olmert, went to prison for 17 months for one of the charges Netanyahu is accused of. So for him, the most willful, politically skilled politician, probably in the history of the country. Um, these elections are really, really important.