Oren Says Netanyahu Could Benefit From Another Election

I would ask first, just for your reaction to the exit polls that we are seeing. Uh, good to be with you. Uh, listen, many Israelis are in shock tonight. Uh, yes, Gadi. I was in court in his block. The anti Netanyahu. The change block, as it's called, has won a very narrow victory. And by the way, is a tentative victory because votes are still going to be counted too early in the morning and things can shift. In our past history, they were presumptive winners at a certain hour at night, and turned out the next morning there were losers. So let's say there's a narrow victory of, say, 52 to 5250 in favor of Gadi Ivanka. But the fact of the matter is that they could under this and now has emerged as the largest party in, uh, in Israel. And that's kind of a shock after October 7th, after so much has happened over the last three years, uh, inconclusive wars, uh scandals, uh, corruption. And still Likud emerges as the single largest party. And Netanyahu, in order not to, uh, in order to win this election, has only not to lose. What does that mean if and I think Dan Williams said this very accurately, that, uh, if he hasn't got can't form a government. And right now he's almost ten seats short of a government, and even with the moderate Arab Arabs, he's still going to be short of the 61 majority you need. Then we go to another round of elections, which means that Netanyahu remains prime minister. And I'll put a finer point on it. Time is working in his favor. We've had tens of thousands of Israelis get on planes, those who live aboard abroad playing, paying thousands of dollars to come here and vote. Most of them are voting against Netanyahu. Will they do it a second time? If the election are held in three months from now? And what if this war again with Iran, together with the United States the next few weeks? How will that play out over the next few weeks? The situation is actually neck and neck. It's a closer tie, uh, than many would admit. And I think Netanyahu's not looking so bad tonight. Well, that was my question about Iran, ambassador, and thank you for being with us. What I know is a late hour, but it is widely believed that the United States and Israel are going back to war. Not that it's stopped, technically, but back to active military operations, if not even more intense than what we had seen in the outset following the midterm elections in the U.S.. How will that color voters opinions on the ground in Israel if there are further elections? That's going to be speculative. But indeed, the working assumption here, Joe, is that, yes, war will resume after the midterm elections. And the IDF, the Israeli forces are geared for this. The population here is geared for this, and we're willing to put up with sustained massive missile strikes. If the outcome of the war is conclusive and the way that the previous round of fighting was not conclusive, in fact, it didn't exactly were down to Israel's favor because the United States joined with Iran in forming a memorandum of understanding that really gave Iran a certainly a tactical, if not a strategic victory. Uh, but here's an example. What if a war is resumed and the Iranian regime is so humble that it basically can no longer threaten its neighbors? Certainly not us. Or maybe the Iranian regime falls, in which case Benjamin Netanyahu will appear as the historic savior of the state of Israel, and he'll be much better positioned, uh, in the next round of negotiations. And who knows, the Saudis could decide that they want to make peace with us, the Lebanese, the Syrians, uh, Netanyahu could appear much differently. It could, of course, play the other way. And now could be weakened by the war. It's, uh, you know, it's a gamble. What can I say? But with BT, the idea is again. In order to win, he has only not to lose. Well, of course, the question is whether or not he does ultimately not lose. You served as ambassador to the United States. And I wonder if it's not to be Netanyahu as prime minister. Ultimately, I understand we're dealing in hypothetical scenarios here, but how would it change Israel's relationship with the U.S. if it were to be Gary eyes in cotton stead? So it's a very excellent question here, and I'll try to get down to it without getting too granular. Um, the personality of Benjamin Netanyahu, uh, is in certain circles in the United States, uh, of the Democratic Party, certainly, but also parts of the Republican Party and growing parts of the Republican Party. Um, and he's kind of toxic. So if you have a different prime minister, preferably one who's not very well known in the United States, like Ozzie I've got isn't cut. You know, it's got to give Israel a certain grace, period. But here's the rub. And the rub is all the issues in this election have been domestic. It's about investigating the failures of October 7th. It's about whether ultra-Orthodox Israelis will serve in the military. Those are the issues. If God or any other members of the anti Bibi, uh, front become prime minister, they are not going to withdraw a single soldier from Gaza. As long as Hamas doesn't disarm and Hamas is not disarming, it's not going to withdraw a single soldier from use in Lebanon because Hezbollah is not disarming. They're not going to create a Palestinian state in the West Bank and to embark on a peace process. So when it comes down to security issues, there's almost no difference between the two camps. So while you may get a certain of a grace period in Washington among those same circles who are highly critical of Israel, eventually it's going to the truth is going to seep in that there hasn't been a substantive change in our in our strategic and defense policies, which I think are the major issues, uh, for for Americans who are watching our situation so closely. So that, to me is going to be a big challenge, particularly as if the Democrats take one or both houses of Congress, and we'll move, I think, rather quickly to perhaps curtail or cease a military aid to Israel.