Gold staged a brief relief rally yesterday after the
Fed delivered a largely neutral decision but failed to extend the gains above a
key resistance zone. That was an odd reaction considering that Fed Chair Warsh
didn’t even hint to an imminent rate hike and said a whole lot of nothing.
This should keep gold supported in the short-term as
real yields continue to slowly edge lower amid higher inflation expectations
and relatively stable nominal yields. Meanwhile, the US-Iran negotiations remain
at a stalemate, although we’ve seen a stronger push this week, with US Vice
President Vance reportedly sending a letter to Iran to revive peace talks.
Today, we get some important US economic data with the
GPD, the PCE and Jobless Claims on the agenda. The data is unlikely to change
much for the Fed, though, since it has already upgraded its growth assessment
yesterday, and the PCE can be forecasted almost accurately using inputs from
the CPI and PPI reports.
The Jobless Claims should be the most important release,
but we will likely need a significant deterioration in the data to trigger a
market reaction as the market already expects good figures. Weak data could strengthen
growth concerns and support gold on a dovish repricing further out the curve.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold (CFD contract) is trading
near the downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers
to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above it, to keep targeting the
3,885 support zone. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price
breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the 4,700 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price rejected the resistance zone around the 4,070 level again. We
now have a minor upward trendline defining the recent pullback. If the price falls
into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it, with a defined risk
below it, to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will
look for a break lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level support
next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum on this timeframe.
We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline, with a defined risk above
it, to keep targeting new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a
break higher to pile in for a rally into new highs, with the major downward
trendline as the first target. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we
get the US GDP report, the US PCE and the latest US Jobless Claims figures. Tomorrow,
we conclude the week with the US Employment Cost Index.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
