The Political Crisis That Could Topple Germany’s Merz

Friedrich Merz came to power promising to steady Germany, but instead, the ground beneath him is already shifting. Merz says he will stay on as Germany's chancellor, even after his party suffered its worst ever result in a state election. His approval ratings are the worst for any chancellor of the post-war era. The political situation in Germany is pretty fragile at the moment. Economically, it's stagnating. The electorate is restless. Public anger at Merz's coalition is splintering the electorate as voters peel away in both directions, increasingly positioning the far right Alternative für Deutschland, known as the AfD, as the primary threat to the establishment. It essentially means that Germany, which likes to pride itself as the anchor of stability in Europe, is now adrift politically. So what's Merz's next move and can he hold Germany's political centre as support drains away? This story is all about a political leader who lost any kind of popular touch that they ever had. Merz became German chancellor on May 6, 2025, following the collapse of Olaf Scholz's coalition. Germany will be reliably governed again. Merz won, but the discontent has really continued. The electorate is increasingly angry. Though known for his direct style, his sharp tone can occasionally miss the mark with voters. He is a corporate lawyer by trade and is somewhat aloof, and doesn't really manage to connect very well with the public. After Merz came into office in May 2025, he had a bit of a popularity boost, but it didn't last long and his approval rating has been on the slide ever since. The situation became critical for Merz when his CDU party suffered a disastrous double blow in recent state elections as the far-right AfD surged to a dominant victory. The CDU — absolute disaster in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania. The CDU fought hard but in the end the CDU was torn apart. So, how did Merz handle this stunning electoral blow? Merz reacted by cancelling his planned trip to the UN in New York. He gathered his party around him and he vowed to press on with his reform agenda to try and pick up the economy. Merz has coveted the chancellorship for a long time. Even under Angela Merkel he was sidelined, so he's not about to give it up easily. At the same time, he stressed the fact that he has a historic responsibility to try and right this ship. So Germany, known for political stability, known for policy stability, known for fiscal stability, are all those things in question? High energy costs and a struggling auto industry have plunged Germany into a deep slump, driving unemployment towards three million. The stakes are so high because there are signs that perhaps the German economy may have turned the corner. There are seeds of growth emerging and any introduction of political instability could threaten the reform agenda that's needed to try and nurture that. The rise of the AfD goes against everything that Germany's post-war constitution has set up to try and prevent. There are elements who have tried to relativize the crimes of the war-era, and they have been classed as right-wing extremists by the domestic intelligence services. This is the AfD's vote share in the previous state elections. This year, support has grown nationwide, but it's stronger in the East — a sharp reminder that decades after the Berlin Wall fell, Germany remains deeply divided. In conclusion, Merz is suffering from an anti-incumbency movement which is being experienced right across the world right now. At the same time, Merz has no obvious successor in place. There's the state prime minister of North Rhine-Westphalia, Hendrik Wüst. Then there's the state prime minister of Bavaria, Markus Söder. The problem with both of those candidates is that neither has come out saying that they want to challenge Merz. Quite the opposite, they've backed him. The chancellor's political survival won't end Germany's instability. With every major political party shutting out the far right AfD, any future government is heading straight for gridlock. What's coming next is a very anxious eye from the chancellory at every economic indicator that's coming in to check for signs that the German economy is picking up. The best scenario here is that it does so, the electorate becomes less discontent and actually turns around to support him. The more likely scenario is that the German economy does pick up. It does help to support his government, but it's really too late for Merz.