The drop reflects traders trimming some of the geopolitical premium built into crude in recent weeks rather than any change in physical supply, which remains constrained while Hormuz flows are disrupted. That makes the move vulnerable to reversal. Washington has not responded to Tehran’s terms, and several of them, including sanctions relief and recognition of Iranian-designated shipping routes, look difficult for the US to accept quickly. The weekend also brought claims of tankers striking mines in the strait, renewed Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries and lingering speculation about possible US strikes after Tuesday’s midterms, all of which point to supply risk. Until there is a concrete US response, oil is likely to stay headline-driven, with sharp moves in both directions.
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Oil traders took Doha’s diplomacy as a reason to shave the war premium, but the two-day plan to reopen Hormuz still depends on Washington accepting a list of Iranian demands it has yet to answer.
Summary:
Brent fell around $2 a barrel in early Asian trade on Monday as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third consecutive day of talks aimed at ending the war
Iran’s foreign minister said Qatar persuaded Tehran to shorten its original seven-day plan to two days: US measures on day one, Hormuz reopened on day two
Iran’s conditions include lifting recent US sanctions, restoring June oil waivers, a reduced US military presence, recognition of new shipping routes and an end to fighting on all fronts
The US has not publicly responded; Secretary of State Rubio confirmed talks are ongoing but gave no timeframe, and Trump said he is not in a rush
Iran’s security chief described a letter from US Vice President Vance as a positive change in tone
OPEC+ holds December targets steady for third month as Hormuz disruption persists
Oil prices fell in early Asian trade on Monday, with Brent down around $2 a barrel, as Iranian and Qatari officials held a third straight day of talks aimed at ending the war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.
The focus of the discussions is a plan that Iran says could restore shipping through the strait within two days if the United States meets Tehran’s conditions. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Al Jazeera that Qatari mediators had asked Iran to shorten its original seven-day proposal, and that the two sides had settled on a two-day timetable. Under the plan, Washington would carry out a package of measures on the first day, and Hormuz would reopen and navigation return to normal on the second.
Iran’s conditions are wide-ranging. Araghchi said they include lifting recently imposed US sanctions, reinstating oil waivers granted in June, reducing the US military presence in the region, recognising new shipping routes through the strait designated by Iran and Oman, and ending the conflict on all fronts, including Israel’s attacks on Lebanon. Iran has also sought the release of frozen funds, including those held in Qatar. Pakistan has been mediating alongside Qatar.
Washington has given no public response to the plan. Secretary of State Marco Rubio confirmed the Qatar-led talks were continuing but said he was not aware of a timeframe, while President Donald Trump said negotiations were going fine but that he was in no great hurry to reach a deal. Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei offered a more upbeat assessment, saying a letter from Vice President JD Vance showed a markedly changed tone from Washington, which he called a very positive sign.
The diplomatic track is unfolding alongside continued tension in the strait. On Sunday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said two tankers struck mines and exploded while transiting Hormuz without Iranian authorisation, a claim that has not been independently verified. Iran has restricted passage through the waterway and attacked ships it says break those rules.
Whether the price decline holds is likely to depend on Washington’s response. Several of Iran’s demands, particularly on sanctions and the recognition of Iranian-designated shipping routes, go to the heart of the dispute, and the gap between the two sides remains wide even as mediators try to narrow it.
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Earlier:
Gold price analysis today: Is the sharp selloff creating a buying opportunity or another trap?
What about the Nasdaq? Will it rebound this week? Here’s an interesting opinion from the Exness Trading Desk (always trade at your own risk only, these are opinions, not promises):
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
