Goldman Sachs has raised its December Brent crude oil forecast to $105 per barrel from $90 , a nearly 17% increase, even as Persian Gulf oil flows reportedly return to or exceed pre-war levels. The bank also lifted its 2027 outlook, pointing to potential disruptions tied to conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine.
Key takeaways
Goldman now projects Brent averaging $88 per barrel in 2027.
ANZ targets $105 Brent at year-end; UBS expects $110.
Goldman’s 2027 base case allows for a one-million-barrel-per-day supply disruption.
Iran-US diplomacy remains central to expectations for lower oil prices.
Goldman raises its Brent crude oil forecast for 2027
Goldman Sachs expects Brent to average $88 per barrel in 2027 , compared with its earlier $80 projection. Its December forecast calls for an average of $105.
The bank also revised its outlook for West Texas Intermediate , forecasting $94 per barrel in December and a 2027 average of $78, up from $73 previously.
In a November 1 note led by Daan Struyven , Goldman said conflicts in the Middle East and between Russia and Ukraine, together with broader geopolitical fragmentation, create substantial disruption risks. Its base case now incorporates a one-million-barrel-per-day global supply disruption allowance for 2027, reflecting the difficulty of predicting the timing and location of interruptions.
According to the analysts, further price spikes could be triggered by assaults on shipping vessels or harm inflicted on energy facilities.
ANZ and UBS also expect elevated year-end prices
ANZ raised its year-end Brent crude oil forecast by 10% to $105 per barrel , while UBS expects the benchmark to reach $110 by the end of 2026. Morgan Stanley lifted its fourth-quarter forecast for Dated Brent, a physical oil benchmark, to $105.
ANZ’s commodity team tied its revision to the erosion of supply buffers after prolonged disruption.
“Eight months of adapting to disrupted Middle Eastern supply have materially weakened the buffers that absorbed the initial shock,” ANZ’s commodity analysts wrote in a note last week.
Those higher forecasts contrast with reports that oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have recovered to pre-war volumes or surpassed them.
Diplomacy remains central to the price outlook
Analysts see a lasting peace agreement between Iran and the United States as a route to consistently lower oil prices. Goldman’s note said markets were assigning a higher risk premium as traders anticipated difficulty securing a durable diplomatic breakthrough.
Reports of three days of talks between Iranian and Qatari officials have encouraged optimism about a possible agreement. The prospects of reaching a deal before the end of 2026 nevertheless remain slim.
The US midterm elections on November 3 are the next scheduled political event under scrutiny for their implications for Iran-US relations. Both countries have signaled readiness for diplomacy and for further conflict.
Article produced with the assistance of artificial intelligence and reviewed by the editorial team.
