Carley Garner on Crude Oil’s Hidden Bearish Headlines & 2026’s Historic Energy Rally

network.com. Welcome back to Morning Movers. We welcome in our next guest. That's Carley Garner, senior commodity market stst for Day Trading. Good morning to you, Carley. Always a pleasure. Let's talk og with Kevin. If you heard some of that he's been b the drums that all of our analysis should start with crude oil. And he's, you know, been proven right in many ways, or at least over the last several weeks. So considering this to be sort of ground zero for market volatility, how are you assessing theandscape in this, you know, pretty bifurcated market as well as you got different types of crude and everything that's going on? Yeah, absoluto first of all, Kevin is correct. In fact, you'd be probably surprised to learn thatru oil is even dictating what's going on in the AG. So t grains and even the meats. So it's definitely driving the ship. With that said, you know, the media industry, you know, let me justm gets clicks and it sells newsletters. And so commodity industry is no different than any other industry. We tend to focus on the news stories that get the most eyeballs, and those tend tohe negative news stories. important than realityis more sometimes in the short run in commodities. And we're seeingstn by that is, you know, we hear about the HouthiskingSaudi pipet all the violence going on in not hearing about are the we'r stories that are actually positive for crude oil production and bearish for crude oil. So, for example, the US, we're producing about 14 million barrels per day a little under that. But that's the all time high production in the US. Baker rnts are going up slightly every every week or not dramatically, but they areng higher. So production is coming online from the US. We're also looking at Venez producing about probably a 5 or 600,000 barrels per day in excess of what ms were expecting earlier in the year when Venezuela was first overturned. And the United Arab Emirates is currently producing about 5 to 700,000 barrels per day, more than they did prior toving OPEC. And they're looking at hopefully adding another 5 to 700,000 by next year. So there there. We just have to look a little harder to find them. And I think eventually types of things will weigh on the market, particularly when we're looking at probably the biggest demand destruction event since Covid. Kali, othe things that's very notable, even if you're just sort of one eye on this market, is that Brant and WTI, that spread has really blown out. And I guess it makes sense given where Brant is pricing necessarily focused and where WTI crude is primarifocuss production. But we're talking, you know, 13 or so dollars for that spread. When you look at that and you try to assess it, is that telling us the impact is going to be more felt in places like Europe than it is in the US? Or is that just a guess? Is that telling us that things like diesel and things that come from more of that heavier crude are just going to remain elevated for a little bit lo Well, you know, the spread is surprised a lot of prto be an expert on theg t spread between Brant and WTI. There's a lot of moving there. But a couple of things I will say is seasonality matters. And we're coming into the time of year where Seasonals tend to work against oil, not for it. So regardless of thatd, think at some point that starts pushing oil prices low And if one goes, the other goes. I mean, there's despite the widening of the spread, there's still correlation there. And I do think, you know, the one saving grace the United is we . And so we are under less under the grip of OPEC and other producing nations than we used n mind as we talk about dieselal , obviously diesel is what kind of powers our lives used to in some of our cars, but mostly shipping and transit of goods that we buy. And dias really blown out about. Well, not about it's blown out three times oe last 20 years, there's been three parabolic rallies. This is the t T first two were in 2008 and 2022. Those diey higher for a short amount of time. And then it was kind of a blow off top. And they or very, y after. So, for example, 2008, we peaked out ae over $4, and six months later we were trading about a dollar. In 2022, diesel prices reached, I want to say about $6 and a year or so, maybe a little more than a year later, we were trading at $2. So just keep in mind commodities are trades, not investments. What we see today might beul and discouraging, but it's most likely temporary. I can't say that the exa high in in heating and diesel are in, but I think it pros. If not, if we go for one more new high, it's probably going to be pretmatic. I would say somewhere in the mid 60s, which would be really haroo at, but just know that there's light at the end of the tunnel priceyou know, in energies. Anyway, when prices get this out of control, theyuse self-correction or the mean reversion usually overshoot the downside. Now the, the thing we don't want to hear about this is in 2008 and 2022, when diesel went parabolic, broke thing the economy. We all remember the financial crisis, obvio And then in 2022, it depends on who you talk to, whether we had an official recession or not. But the reality is the the the market cooledown, the economy cooled down and diesel prices, you know,eally went down with it. So something to keep an it.o look at, but prices aretemp not, especially in commodities. Carly it's always a pleasure. I loes. And although it's it's not a, you know, flashing of alarms. It's a good point out though that, hey, some of these other dates when th happened, not particularly great for the economics going f, but Carly, always a pleasure.