KG on Core PCE’s Importance This Week, Crude Levels to Watch, SPCX Starship Launch

of top tier economic data also of course wrapping up the quartero let's get out to Kevin Green who joins me just for a walk through ofe mard morning. Hope you had a nice weekend. Just talk us through whattching right now. Well Sam obviously we are seeing a little bit of a pullba the S&P 500 pretty much across the board. Actually. If you're looking at the indexes ane only sectors that are really advancing to the upside is energy. And obviously that of the news headlines. We have real estate as well as consumer staples catching a bid. And consumer staples is actually very interesting. In the latter half of last week, we actually did see a pretty decent bid in the Costco and even Walmart for that matter. So let's see if that trend is going to continue a little bit more defensive in nature. But overall, we're going to be focusing on yields this week. A lot of economic data, as you talked about with PCE coming out. We're going to get an update on GDP as And then we have the jobs report the ADP report on Wednesday, the jobs report on Friday, and a significant amount of fed speakers throughout the week as well. So we know that w probably going to see a little bit of volatility heading into the middle to the en this week. But I I think it's going to be very interesting to see what s with the ten year. Yes, it does have some negative headlines around it. And the fund do not look that great. But are we already kind of pricing in some of the news that we're going to get this week, like PCE coming in hot, or maybe some of these fed members really speaking and providing a little bit more of a hawkish tone. This could be a setup for a potential dead cat bounce in the Treasury market. Meaning prices go higher. Yields maybe stabilize or go a little bit lower. And that's what I'm keeping my eye out for for the remainder of this week. Just given the environment that, absolutely. Data on the tap. We're be watching that ten year very, very closely. But it is so closely correlated with what we're seeing as far as the moves in oil as well. And, you know, o interesting given Trump has rejected Iran's proposal here expecting to resume these attacks and bombing after the midterms. Just talk us through seeing as far as the chances today. Yeah. You know, there's a lot of headlines around the resumption of of strikes. But we are seeing headlines this morning that the US and Iran are going to be speaking with mediators today and tomorrow, not directly to each other, but with mediators. That's we have seen the price of crude oil actually move lower here, trading $96.54 earlier in the session, now trading around $94. There's also a news report that Saudi Arabia is looking at actually providing a discount for some of i prices for the oil that it ships out of the Omani ports here, and that is to be able to try to recapture some market share, as well as maybe to entice some of these tankers to come into the Strait of Hormuz as well as into the Gulf. So that's also pushing prices a little bit lower. And you're seeing theifferential between Brant and WTI crude kind of coming into around that $4 or $4 and 15 cent level. There's usually around a $6 spread between the two. So I would say that the fundamentals are still relativelylish. If you are an oil bull right now, just given the fact that we have that shortage of supply, especially in Europe, it sounds going to be holding off on is diesel shipments over to Europe. There could be something that's in the works here in the United States to maybe constrain some of that supply. All of thatreale fundamentals for the energy patch right now. But it just ta you know, one headline to really kind of break this market down. So I'm still look between $93 and $105 on WTI as that risk zone for bulls as well as for bears. And if you're able to get above that 105 and above it with some conviction, that's where we can probably go back up to that 120 but I think this skews a little bit more bearish over the next two weeks, three weeks rather than bullish if you are if you're kind of just looking at the dynamics of the news flow that we are seeing. Okay, so we're waiting on the PCE, we're waiting on the jobs report. I know that you're going to be watching consumer confidence as well. We've got ISM PMI, which is the most important catalyst to watch do you think? I think we have two. The most important catalyst is going to be PCE. And the reason why the Cleveland Fed actually has a little bit of a higherexpe compared to the Street's expectations for month over month gains for core PCE. And that could provide a little bit of a jolt to the market, to the downside. Now, we already have a very high bar. We also once again, have maybe some positioning in the Treasury market to anticipate a hot print when it comes to core PCE. So then that has a very high bar. Do we actually come in lower than that bar and provide a little bit of a sparke upside? I think that's going to be a major headline mover. I'm not even go talk about the labor report. We're going to talk about that all week. Consumer confider sentiment indicator that is going to be probably a big market mover, given the fact saw the moves in the market from last week with the University of Michigan consumer sentiment, as well as the PMI data, which is also snt indicator. So I think that's going to be a big headline mover for us. Yeah. And icularlyI mean that 0.2% month on month, which y I think it was Williams who really kind of of thumb. So it's really going to be down two percentage points. I think particu on the month over month core numbers. And just switchinggeare tracking this morning. KG, before we let you go and this major milestone for Starship, I mean, just talk us through this SpaceX launch we're seeing today. Yeah. It was a successful. Tre actually able to get it into orbit. They did deploy the 26 Starl v three satellites. And they did this with an engine kind of going before. So they have 33 engines on there. Looks like they had complications with just of them, but they were able to get Starship into into orbit here. So this is a success not a major reaction from the stock today. Actually seeing it down about 1.7%. And ho saying that actually just took place the last four minutes five minutes or so. So maybe there's some news headlines that are hitting the wire that I'm unaware of. But it was for the most part, from what I've seen in the news reports, it was actually a successful launch. Let's see if there's anything else that comes about that over the next couple minutes and hours, because once again, we did see the stock drop about $4 in atte. Yeah, I'm seeing all 26 satellites on Starshipere deployed in orbit. Let's see. But moving forward, of course, for the future of this stock, it certainly is about the cadence and