Details
Prior was +90K
Construction +13K vs +15K prior
Manufacturing -1K vs +17K prior
Natural resources and mining -8K vs -1K prior
Financial activities +15K vs -16K prior
Professional and business services -27K vs -11K prior
Education and health services +28K vs +55K prior
Leisure and hospitality +19K vs +22K prior
Wages for all workers 4.7% vs +4.8% prior
Job stayers 4.4% vs 4.4% prior
Job changers 7.6% vs 7.3% prior
From the report, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson said:
“Employers of all sizes were hiring last month, and our data suggests that job-changers were lured by a combination of bonuses, overtime, and more hours in addition to higher base pay. Taken together, earnings growth for these workers hit its fastest pace since March 2024.”
For background, the ADP National Employment Report is a monthly estimate of US private-sector job growth produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab. It’s usually released at 8:15 am ET on the Wednesday before the government’s nonfarm payrolls report, giving markets an early, independent read on hiring.
The report is built from anonymized payroll data covering millions of workers at ADP’s client companies, one of the largest real-time samples of US employment. It covers private employers only, so it excludes government jobs. The headline figure is the monthly change in private employment, broken down by industry, establishment size and region.
ADP overhauled its methodology in 2022 to rely more directly on its own payroll records rather than modeling the government’s numbers. The report also includes pay insights, showing median annual pay growth for workers who stayed in their jobs and for those who changed jobs. The gap between the two is watched as a gauge of labor market tightness. ADP has also begun publishing weekly preliminary estimates, giving a higher-frequency read between monthly reports.
Despite the large sample, ADP has a mixed record as a predictor of nonfarm payrolls. The two measures use different methods and samples and can diverge sharply in any given month, with the differences often reversing over time. Traders tend to react to big surprises, but many economists treat ADP as one input among several rather than a reliable preview.
Its importance tends to rise when the official data are delayed or questioned, such as during government shutdowns, when it becomes one of the few timely reads on the job market.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.
