Yahoo Finance Live: Daily Market Coverage – September 4, 2026 9AM-11AM (ET)

[music] Welcome to Young Finance this morning brief. Steve Sausnik is still with us. A hold over from the jobs report interactive brokers chief strategist Jay Connley still hanging out as well keeping the conversation going. And the way that we ended our jobs conversation is where I want to begin here. Right. We got 162,000 jobs added to the US economy last seems great. >> Unbelievable. Right. seems like a good thing and we've got futures down although just a little bit and that was a surprisingly sort of bummer of a discussion [laughter] it felt like because we were talking about the implications throughout the Treasury market. I mean, how are you thinking about that, Steve? As we talk about the jobs number being strong, the economy seeming to be okay, earnings looking great, and yet you still have not just a I mean, I don't even think you can just point to main street vibes as being bad, but like, you know, fixed income market vibes are kind of not great these days. >> That's right. >> Stock traders are able to put their blinders on from time to time, and that's and that's what we're seeing today. It's what we it's what we saw yesterday, right? Wall the reaction was largely result of Waller's speech. Waller's speech when you parse through it was very much this the standard two-handed economist speech. If this then that. But as we saw countless times with Powell, they heard they heard the part they wanted to hear. And yesterday, what the market wanted to hear was an excuse to rally. What they're hearing today is it's not enough of an excuse to sell off really. I mean, you know, 15 20 points on the S&Ps is not a big sell-off. Um, so this is just stock traders ability to just compartmentalize. Now, whether that's a smart move in the long term, that's that's a very different question. You know, as as as as Joe Bruce Willis said to me off air, you know, sure, like, you know, let's ignore this $ 32 trillion elephant in the room of a market, but sure, we'll just, you know, but and so you can't over time. But one of the things also that I do like to say is I I think stock traders should and do prefer strong economic numbers. That is a good thing. So let so let's not look let's not look past that. >> Let good news be good news. Let good news. >> And let's be clear sort of one of the old saws on Wall Street. One of the old stereotypes is that you know fix the bond guys tend to be the pessimists. >> They're the downers. They're always the downers. >> The glass half empty kind of guys. >> It's by the nature of their business, right? All they all they care about is do I get paid back with interest? That's literally it. And so there so your analysis is what might prevent me from getting paid back with interest. [laughter] >> Stock traders, you're right. And stock traders, you know, you're you're about capital appreciation. So So you're by definition, the mentality is different. And so yes, the bond guy the bond guys do and they need to be thinking about things a little bit differently than the stock people. Steve, it does feel like the noise is getting a bit louder there, doesn't it? Look at the 32 trillion. >> Sorry. [laughter] >> But, you know, the the Iran war seems to be heating back up. We have the US Canada shed and Freud. We have the Dutch bringing their gold home, as we said with Joe and R.J., it seems like the noise is getting just a little bit louder every single day. And yet, stocks don't care. >> Well, and not only the noise getting loud, like it's been the past few years that things have been noisy, right? Not only have stocks been okay, I will also say like the noise about the US debt to GDP ratio which is now at 100%. >> That noise has crescendoed at other times >> and come to not >> you know and you could point to different signs this time like as we talked about earlier the Norwegian sovereign bank is considering it and hasn't yet gotten approval to change its bond holdings which would affect US treasuries negatively. Um, so there are little things like that, but it is it's hard to know how seriously to take all of it in part because ultimately even though the bond market is supposed to be the longer term instrument, >> it isn't really with regard to the debt usually. Usually it ends up sort of like saying getting angry for a minute and then being like, >> nah, we'll we'll we'll we'll deal with that problem later. >> And we're looking at it right now as a short-term instrument. That's the way we're reading and how the market's reacting to it is so short-term right now, >> but it's acting like a short-term instrument. What two-year notes, they're not supposed to have, you know, seven, eight, in some cases 13 basis point moves in a given day. But, you know, this is what's going on. And one of the things that I think, you know, stock traders have to realize is if you if it's hard to price relatively risk-free assets, how do you price riskier assets, >> right? It's hard to do that unless of course you don't really care about the fundamentals and you're, you know, and and if you're momentum trading, this is kind of the situation we're in. The momentum has been relent generally relentlessly positive. If you're momentum trading, you're watching price trends, right? You you're watching price action. You're watching moving averages. However you do it, what's the one thing that I haven't mentioned there? Fundamentals. So you you can you can trade off of momentum and fairly successfully without having to worry about fundamentals. That doesn't work in >> but you can argue the fundamentals have been good. Yes. >> For equities, right? In terms of the earnings growth that we've seen. What I'm curious about now is >> has the equity market priced in >> um an interest rate hike from the Fed at this upcoming meeting? >> It doesn't. Well, that's probably part of what's driving futures a little lower for today. I don't mean to just today. I mean, in general, it doesn't feel like this market is necessarily [snorts] pricing. >> But will a 25 bit change matter? >> Well, to both of those points, 25 basis points here and there is more about the signaling. It's it's more about Fed credibility. Um, you know, are Walsh is talking Walsh is talking his book, but he's not actually doing anything to it yet. And and from the point of view of I still think December seems more likely and I know the Fed's supposed to be apolitical, but I think it requires I don't know that today as big as the number was was enough to move the needle to get them to raise rates. It's pretty the political messaging is still loud and clear. We don't you know at least the president and the vice president and to some extent the Treasury Secretary they don't want they don't want to see higher rates. The president wants lower rates. That's off. that's not happening. But but basically, uh, you know, I think the bar has to be really high for them to to raise rates before a midterm election, which to me I've been saying all along it's December. I might be proven wrong, but that's that's been my rationale is the the the the yelling if they raise rates and and the the the loss of political capital um might not might not be enough uh to to get them to move. >> Well, Steve, let me ask you this on the credibility point, right? We we've been talking about credibility with Worsh relentlessly. Powell ran above target inflation for four years and we never really talked about credibility. You never heard that argument. >> We did now and again, but not in the same >> but not in the same way. And I'm trying to figure out what's changed. >> Um the the person in the office I think Powell had by the time Powell was running those numbers to a certain extent, you know, he came inflation was very low. It wasn't really problematic. I think he was given a bit of a mulligan because of COVID, you know, and saying, "Okay, we we could run it higher. These are extraordinary circumstances." He did raise rates pretty substantially, eventually. Um probably, you know, arguably a little too late and a little too and still not enough, but he he eventually did something. So, Worsh is talking right now. First of all, markets have to feel out new Fed chairs. They they they always test new Fed chairs. >> Um this is Worsh's test right now. Now, it's it's a long-term test. The the exams graded on a long over a long cycle over a big curve. But basically, this is the he has not yet he's talked a tough game, but he hasn't done anything to prove it. Someone asked me recently, as the market fighting the Fed, and my thought here is fighting what? The Fed's not doing anything right now. >> Right. You keep talking, when are you going to walk the walk? >> Exactly. I mean and I would say Powell maybe the word credibility didn't come as much but he still even to this day has some acute acute critics who say that he handled policy quite badly. So there is that. I mean I will I always pay attention to the vibes too and the and the way that these guys carry themselves. Pal, >> you know I think had a decent amount of humility and sort of seemed like the reluctant chair in some way. He was an economist economist. >> Whereas worship he was a lawyer in his glory. Dude loves this. He is so happy to have this job. He wanted this job. And I think that that also I think the market reads what he says to some degree through that prism as well. >> I ref I used to refer to Powell as Goldilocks in a suit. >> Yeah. >> Because he it was never too hot. was never too cold and it was always, you know, well, if this then that and market always responded to whatever the if this part was that was favorable and he had that demeanor about him. >> Worsh, you know, he he's he came in saying that, you know, there's a new sheriff in town. >> Uhhuh. >> And to Julie's point day one, >> day one, there's a new sheriff in town. And yeah, I mean, you know, he's he he's he's got the swagger. Yeah. Yeah, >> but he hasn't, you know, he hasn't yet, you know, rounded up the bad guys. >> I will say this, give him time to get comfortable at the podium. Sure. Worsh could never pull off the duck from the last Powell press conference. So well timed. Such a good joke. Couldn't pull it off. >> Yeah. >> Um All right. Let's talk about Let's dig into some specific stocks because there's some good juicy stories here. That's right. The Tesla Cyber Cab event was yesterday. So it rolled out. It's a new Cyber Cab that doesn't have a steering wheel, but it was a closed event. It was not a public event. Apparently, you'll be able to book a cyber cab in Austin as of today. >> Public rides to starting tonight. >> Tonight. Okay. Starting tonight reportedly. We'll see if that actually happens. It's unclear how they're going to overcome the regulatory hurdles because steep in most places. They're supposed to have a steering wheel. >> They still have to. >> And the market's kind of underwhelmed here. The stock has been trading off. Yeah. You know, I know Steve, it's like enormously popular on the Interactive Brokers platform. It is of course on Yahoo Finance also le maybe less so now that SpaceX is they've split the attention exactly you know and the dieards of course are going to be excited about this but it's but it's interesting to me >> how little attent I mean yes it's gotten attention but it's like at one time this would have been the only thing we were talking about and we're not in that position anymore. the stock did have a a little bit of an anticipatory rally. So, it it did it did have, you know, is is this going to turn out to be, you know, sort of a classic buy the rumor, sell the news? We'll we'll find out. Um, and yeah, you know, the the the the Musk attention is split now and between SpaceX and and and Tesla. And, you know, for for lack of a better way of putting it, Tesla's an older story. Yeah, there's all the whisbang stuff, robotics, saber cabs, whatever. But you know, how does that compare with Mars and an infinite addressable market in terms of the first mover in this, right? You have your Whimosuks, you have, you know, there's other stuff that is already >> and who have real scale already. Whimo's all over the place. Tesla's got to play catch-up. >> Yes. And you have to wonder too if this stock is to some extent dead money unless and until SpaceX buys it. >> That's right. which I guess like what's the next catalyst for is it is it uh what's the robot called? Optimist. >> Oh, optimist. Yeah, I mean clearly Musk would love to combine the companies, >> right? >> And there's an argument it could be good for shareholders. Consolidate consolidate his focus, consolidate the companies. It also would give him an enormous amount of control over a huge entity. >> That's the key is the super voting. >> What 80% of SpaceX he owns right now? >> Yeah, he doesn't he doesn't have super Well, it's he he doesn't have super voting in Tesla. He does have it in SpaceX. That's right. So, if he buys Tesla, then he gets super voting on both. >> And did you guys see they were trying to um sell people on buying fleets of cyber cabs? Like you two could be a, >> you know, a an AV magnet and and own your own fleet and send it out into the cities of America to drive. >> I mean, talk about a regulatory problem. >> Yeah. >> Come on. >> That that but that's been the talk for quite a while, right? you know, you can, you know, you can you can use this for your own use and then when you're, you know, when it's sitting in your office, you know, in your office parking lot or at home in your at home in your driveway, send it out there and let it earn money for you. >> It probably will work eventually. It just doesn't feel like we're there at this moment. >> And if you're going to do it and get around regulation, now's the time to do it. Do it under this administration. >> Yeah, probably. So, um, all right, let's talk about cars you can drive, but that [laughter] but that not many people are driving. talking about Volkswagen and this story is so interesting to me on a number of levels. It talks about the sort of decline in traditional you know auto sales generally. It also speaks to that there's been this whole debate about competitiveness of Europe >> and so it speaks to that. So Volkswagen in a surprise getting approval to cut an additional 50,000 jobs um out of a total of about a 650,000 person workforce. The shares are up 8 and a half% today. And this is a surprise. this will be a total job cut of about a 100 thousand potentially if they depending on how the numbers work out. Um and why this is such a surprise is that particularly um in Germany and in Europe more generally there are a lot of worker protections there is um local municipal ownership of Volkswagen that had been resistant to this because of connections with the unions and wanting people to be employed. So the fact that they agreed to this maybe tells you how dire the situation is at Volkswagen which is seeing an enormous amount of competition particularly from Chinese right automakers. So it's just interesting that they even got this done. >> Yeah. How does the old German industrial model compete with BYD? Compete with the need to fund EVs? Compete with the fact that German cars are expensive. They're expensive to build. They're expensive to maintain. How do you compete when a Chinese company can come in and say, "Look, I'll give you a car for a third of the price and it'll run just as well." That's a very tough argument to get over. >> Well, and it's one that they are going to be forced to confront and they are being forced and they're trying, right? >> Yeah. I mean, especially if those vehicles may or may not be getting artificial subsidies to to keep them to keep them. So, that's so that's that's a tough hurdle there. Um and and as someone who is generally anti-p protectionism, that's one of the few that I'm sort of like, >> yeah, you know what? until you could prove to me that these are truly private enterprises, I I kind of I kind of have to see the point in in in restricting access to them. Um, but globally, you can't do that. Volkswagen is a global company. It's not happening around the world. Go to you go to a place, you know, last time I was in Mexico, there were plenty of um Chinese Chinese EVs driving around. Um, and that's an oil an oil producing country, mind you. Um, but what you have is, you know, just sort of this is this is kind of the the the retrenchment that we're expecting, you know, that has to happen as industries evolve. It's painful when it happens. Yeah. >> Um, and I don't want to blame it on unions. My my son is a union lawyer among other things. But um it's not I don't think it's the union's fault. But I do think that one of the flip sides of you know if you if you have a country or an economy that has a lot of worker protections and a lot of uh a and and is and is very you know tends to be relatively generous to its workers I I think it becomes difficult if you are competing against someone who does not. >> Yeah. >> Well this this is the question for all of Europe right now right? How do you compete on basically two fronts? How do you compete with the American resources and economic drive and innovation status on one side when you've got such reg regulatory burdens in a lot of ways and a long history of regulatory slowdown and then how do you compete on the cheap side against products coming out of China and Europe's now found itself in this really uncomfortable spot where domestic policy isn't moving quite fast enough in any of the capitals to really keep up and so you leave a company like Volkswagen or any of their defense manufacturers really really hamstrung on how to make the economics work. >> The defense, you know, think about it, that was the best trade in the world for a while was European, you know, Ryan defense, European defense manufacturers and that that petered out. Again, that's sort of in some ways a testament to momentum. It was like they were the hot trades, so all the money flowed in and then all of a sudden >> money left. >> Now what? You know, once everybody's in, you got nowhere to go, right? But um but I think in general yeah it's an interesting issue for them because you know again also the you know their governments are not immune from the the social and funding pressures um not so much Germany but to a certain extent the companies to the west of them right you know France Spain Portugal um have you know have uh financial you know financial concerns of their own um and that's their that's their basic their bread and butter is the European market for Volkswagen you know yes I mean you know they they sell Porsches and Audi's here as well as Volkswagens. But bottom line is Volkswagen sells a lot of small cars in a lot of places. >> That's right. >> Um and it it becomes difficult to compete. >> So I am curious if this is going to be any kind of a sign of a paradigm shift. Probably not. But I do but no way. >> But it it's just an interesting thing to have. Um and by the way, they still haven't figured out what to do with the factories there. There is some, it wasn't part of this agreement, but there is talk that the some of the defense manufacturers might take over some of the factories. Maybe they would employ some of these workers as well. I guess we'll have to see. >> Well, the Ukraine war is not going anywhere, and that's still a huge defense market. >> Exactly. It's not like they've stopped, even though even though the stock markets stopped paying as much attention to the defense manufacturers, they're still cranking out this. By the way, the oil markets are paying attention to what goes on in Ukraine, which is why diesel >> is is at an alltime high because you've taken uh some of the the Gulf provide Gulf refiners out of commission because you can't get the stuff out or in some cases the refineries were bombed and you and the and Ukraine and and Russia keep bombing each other's refineries and a lot of diesel for European consumption came from those countries. Um, you know, and Oh, but diesel's nobody uses diesel for anything. >> No. What does diesel do? >> Yeah. Only everything you buy somehow is somehow >> every single freight shipper in the world, every marine traffic ship that goes across the water and brings goods. >> People forget Russia is responsible for 10% of the world's refining capacity. And all of that is getting taken offline by very effective Ukrainian drones. And so when you combine that with what we're seeing in the Middle East, no wonder American refiners are running at 97 98 capacity. If you're total, you're running at 102 capacity, which is not at all sustainable. >> So what happens when you have low stocks, when you can't push more through, the price has literally nowhere to go but up. >> So you've struck on the thing that Jake is very >> This is This is my I know I was I knew I was teeing it [laughter] up for you. >> And obviously that that that speak that rolls back into the inflation story. >> That's exactly right. That's exactly right. kind of >> Brent's back at 95. >> Yeah, we seem to be forcing the Fed's hand, but we but we f actually but you rais a good point. We focus on the price on Brent and West Texas. >> Doesn't matter. >> Nobody the only people who use Brent or West Texas are refiners. Yeah, >> we have to pay attention to what the crack spread the the refin the the difference between the the unrefined product and the refined product >> the margin the refiner captures. And that that crack spread has gone up dramatically because of the supply control. >> They're at all time highs. Yeah. And if you look at the curve, it's logarithmic. It's going straight up. And there is abs. Even when the war backed off for a few weeks, if you looked at the cracks, they didn't come down >> at all because this is a fundamental structural problem. You're not going to fix overnight. You're going to fix it maybe in 10 years. Yeah. >> You're not going to fix it right now. >> All right. All right. >> Yeah. Sorry. Sorry. We got to we got to like have the [laughter] ability to insert another tab in the bottom there. Um let's talk about Adobe briefly here because Shantenu Nurayan who is um the longtime president and CEO of the company is going to be stepping down. That's not necessarily unexpected. What's unexpected is who he named as his right um successor. There were two guys who were put up for the job and kind of have been for a while running different parts of the business. Anil Chakravari is the one who got it um and he is the one who's who was in charge of like customer experience. David Wadwani, who didn't get the job, was in charge of the biggest part of the company's business, >> the creative business. >> Yes. And he is now leaving the company. Uh the shares are trading a little bit lower this morning on the this surprise happening. Um you know, TBD how this is going to shake out, but Adobe has already been challenged, right? It's gone through a rocky period. >> There's a great stat here. Wadwani's operation accounted for 34 of Adobe's revenue. And so I'm sure there is reasoning here and you know I've never met any of these guys. I'm sure there's reasoning here. I think you've interviewed a couple of them, right? >> Yes, I've interviewed both of them. >> Yeah. But it's it's going to be a big question for SH shareholders who are going to look now at the new leader and say what do you bring to this business and what do you bring to to your point a company that's been struggling for a long time. >> Yeah. >> Yeah. And and I think in general it's you know it got caught up in the SAS apocalypse but interestingly we've seen how the SAS apocalypse has played out >> when when the companies deliver right everybody got out of them and then you know all of a sudden when they report good news they're up 20%. I'm thinking Salesforce Snowflake etc etc >> and and those moves only happen when institutions are underinvested and they got to get reinvested quickly. the moves that happened let's say in Broadcom where the stock reported good numbers and everybody yawned and said they're not good enough that's because everybody who needs to be invested in Broadcom is invested in Broadcom so there's no so it takes more for the new money for new money to flow in so to the extent that Adobe is playing into this it's not quite I don't know the politics internally enough of how to do it it's interesting also that they didn't even seem to consider someone from the outside maybe they want maybe they maybe the the tiebreaker but maybe then they would have lost both of them. I don't know. >> Right. Well, and the other thing is the company reports earnings next week, next Thursday. So, it's interesting that they're making this separately and ahead of >> those numbers. I don't know what that augers >> like. Are you trying to frontr run something? But who knows? Who knows? >> The the cynic would say that it means that they can put out anything bad as part of a kitchen sink right now to give the new person >> and say, "Look, transition. Let us figure it out. Give us six months." >> Although that didn't work for Lululemon. >> No. [laughter] No, he definitely didn't. Which I know you brace yourselves. I think that Sazy, Brian Sazzy's coming in hot on that one. He wrote wrote >> quite a take this morning on Oh, look. He's He's in the studio. He's ready. [laughter] He's ready. He's raring to go. All right, with that then we shall leave it. Uh we're coming up on the opening bell. Futures indicating [music] a slightly lower open. Um actually NASA futures are now slightly in the green after that jobs report. Guys, so much have a wonderful holiday weekend [music] to both of you. That does it for Morning Brief. As promised, SAZ is up next. [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Heat. [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. Heat. [music] [music] [music] Down. [music] [music] Keep it. >> [music] >> Down. [music] Down. >> [music] >> Down. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] >> Down. [music] [music] Ah. >> [music] >> Heat. [music] Hey, heat. Hey, heat. [music] >> [music] [music] >> And here's your quick eightword summary of today's much better than expected August jobs report. Chalk full of 55,000 extra jobs added in June and July than previously reported. Expect an interest rate hike in two weeks. Eight words like I just promised you. The new opaque uh Federal Reserve led by the TV polished Fed chair Kevin Walsh has consistently said they are worried about inflation. They have all but told you a rate hike is coming. You have probably chosen to ignore them thinking the Jerome Pal easy money days would hang around for just a little bit longer. This jobs report should settle the debate. A rate hike is coming and your portfolio needs to be prepared because judging by the negative market reaction to this report, not many people are prepared for overlever trades and tech unwinding with a higher rate backdrop in play. here on the opening bid round table on this big Friday. Jared Dillian the daily uh dirtnap editor and author of the upcoming book the awesome portfolio. Love that title alongside yo finds his own and frain and jar blickery. Jared coming to you here. Market didn't like this report. Can't say I'm surprised. >> No, it was really interesting to see the market report but also we know from Fed chair Worsh's last Friday uh last Friday's Jackson Hole speech that he's watching the market reaction. So the market tightened here. So what was the market reaction? We got stock futures down, rates are up, dollar is up. Meanwhile, Bitcoin and gold are down. So, yesterday's debasement trade, which seemed to be on, is reversing today. So, what we're seeing is a little bit of tightening by the market. And Worsh likes that because he wants the market to do his job. This takes a little bit of pressure off of that September rate hike. And here's another reason why we might not see a September rate hike. Because when you dig into the report under the surface, you see it's really strong in three different areas that I call the magnificent three. Restaurants and bars up 60,000. Local government education up 42,000. Healthcare up 13,000. That's 114,000 which is 70% of the total 162,000. So these are lower income, lower wage jobs. And uh so that kind of uh amilarates some of the hawkishness that you might look at if you're saying 60 162,000 plus another 55,000 added in those revisions. >> Jared Blicker, you sound a little doubbish here today. >> I'm a little doubish on I think the Fed might skip September. Just might. But it depends on what happens with inflation. >> Uh and as I'm I'm I got those hawkish vibes. Jared Blicker sound a little doubish. Where where you stand? >> I'm actually with Jared on this one. Yes. because I think that Governor Waller had a chance to sound hawkish yesterday and he didn't take it. He didn't take that chance before the blackout period. So, I think that um a surprise to the market would be perhaps to hike rates even though I know that there's a big division. There's like about a 50/50 chance, right? But I'm with Jared on this one. I think that they stay steady and then before the midterms, I think they're going to stay steady again. And look, they may be looking at the unemployment rate which stayed the same. Uh you did see as Jared noted losses in information uh services, losses in financial activity. So those white collar jobs uh that you are seeing losses there, but you're seeing gains on those other sectors that Jared mentioned. >> Jared with the awesome portfolio. Tell me you are on team Szy here. >> Oh, I'm always on team Szy. Uh tell me what team Sazy is. >> The other one, the other Jared. We got double Jared today. Jared with the awesome portfolio. Go ahead. Yes. So, I mean, look, it was uh it was an unambiguously strong number, but you have to remember we had two terrible numbers before that and every piece of economic data for the last 2 months has underperformed. You know, whether it's the PMIs or the inflation data or anything, we've had a really bad run of economic data. Um, you know, I agree. You know, Waller, look, two-year notes are basically where they were before Waller's speech. Um, I think you're getting pretty good odds to bet on no rate hike. And Waller said like, you know, he didn't talk about payrolls. He said he's really looking at the inflation data next week. Next week we have PPI on Thursday and CPI on Friday. Uh, I think that's going to re be the real key as to whether they move rates or not. >> Jar Blickery, back to you. Let's just say uh I'm right and we do get that rate hike uh in about two weeks. what trades would work now and what are you seeing in the likes of those safe haven names? >> I would be getting ahead of the bond. I would be buying bonds now. If I thought September was a lock, um then the long end of the curve is probably going to get rained in. So if rates are going down on the long end, that's a 30-year and the 10-year, I want to be owning the bond because those prices move inverse to each other. So that's one thing I would do. But then I'd be I I might be a little more cautious in deploying more risk capital at this stage. And there are two reasons for that. Number one, we've got negative seasonality. So history says in September, you got to be careful. We do tend to see market corrections and we see a higher VIX. So there's more uncertainty in these markets. But also just thinking about the semiconductor trade and how that might uh react to higher rates when you have all these huge AI companies uh like Google going into the market and loading up on debt because they don't have enough cash. That would make me a little circumst circumc necessarily be cutting. >> And as you know who doesn't want to see news like this? Any fears of potential rate hikes. It's a company like Anthropic which may go public within the next two weeks. Who knows? That's a chatter out there on Exosphere. And that with a potential rate hike, you get more market volatility like Jared's talking about here. I you don't want to see that if you're trying to come public. >> No. Anthropic wants to go public in a market where you are seeing stocks even if they're grinding just a little bit higher. Uh if you do see a rate hike, then I think that you will see stocks pulling back and as Jared noted also the debasement trade sort of unwinding a bit. You saw Bitcoin that yesterday was higher after those wallet comments. You saw gold that's going higher. Um by the way, crypto tends to do well also in the fourth quarter of the year. But no, with a company like Anthropic, with the whole AI trade, you want you don't want markets to be surprised with a rate hike. I think that there is a division about this and I know that you're in the camp that they're going to hike rates perhaps for credibility, but the signs u in my view are that they may hold to the rate study. >> It is. Look, I I'm not always right in this. Maybe 989% of the time. >> There was that time in 97. [laughter] I think I was I think I was a little high school guys. I'm just just saying. Uh Jared D, let me let me get back to you here. How much longer could Worsh stay opaque? >> Oh, no. I you know I look I I kind of agree with what Worsh is doing getting rid of for forward guidance. The problem is is that the rest of the FOMC is giving forward guidance and he really can't control what they what they do. So, I mean, look, like I if the Fed stays on hold, I think it's going to be a yield curve event no matter what. If the Fed stays on hold, the curve is going to steep in. The long end is actually going to underperform. You're going to want to buy twos. And if they hike, the curve should flatten massively. And you I mean, you should see, you know, 30-year bonds rally half a point, a point on that. So it it's it's you know there's been a lot of volatility in the yield curve lately and it's really because of this lack of forward guidance. >> I want to make a hard right turn here because I uh I'm feeling really hot today team uh on Lululemon stock is getting absolutely blasted. I ripped the company a new one uh in a tech story. That story is right now at the top of our homepage. Uh awful quarter awful decision Jared Blickery to announce a CEO on April 22nd and say they're not going to start on September 8th. I mean, that's just one of the worst decisions I've seen from a board of a public company in a while. >> Hey, you want the evidence? Let's go to the Wi-Fi Interactive and look what the market is doing. Uh, kind of punishing Lululemon for that uncertainty. Down 16%. Um, and let me show you the broader apparel space here. So, you can see Lulu sticks out like a sore thumb at the bottom. Down 17%. >> Like a sore butt, Jared. Sore butt with those pants. Come on, baby. Leggings down 20% in the most recent quarter, Jared. It was terrible. And over the last month, guess what? Apparel has not done well anyway. So, this has been kind of a tough trade uh for most of the year. I'm looking at Lululemon down 51%. And I have to go to a 10-year chart to the see the last time we were at these levels. It was sometime around looks like 2018, 2019. That is just a giant Let me just put a max chart on there because it looks like we want to go down and test these that prior ceiling from about 2011 to 2018. And we got a little ways to go here. That's where the rubber meets the road. So probably sub 100 Lululemon in the near future. >> And as what is so interesting interesting to me here outside of the debacle that is all things Lululemon. This is a year we have Nike stock hovering around a record low. Lululemon shares down I think maybe 75% year to date. I mean just been a humongous decline. Really two stalwarts in the sportsware apparel market are in are are nowhere near a turnaround. Yet you have all these up and cominging retail brands taking all their business. Yeah, and it does seem to be a tough year for these companies, but look, when it comes to Lululemon in their earnings call, they talked about traffic. So, they're they're having a problem with traffic. Um, so as as well as what you mentioned, there's uncertainty, of course, because you've got you do have this new CEO coming. There are some in on the street, and we spoke to one analyst yesterday that said that he thinks it's positive that she comes from Nike. Um, that that this will be positive for the company, but as you mentioned, it was a long time. um before they announced it and then they go and then they had the proxy battle uh with Chip Wilson. So that was a whole distraction there. But they do have issues with sales growth and this is what what these this analyst had mentioned that that there's something happening with the sales growth for the company and when they talked about traffic yesterday in their earnings call. So obviously there's a brand issue and perhaps the customer that is uh not leaning into the this brand as much because you've got other brands that have perhaps uh newer styles and styles that they prefer. >> Jared D is the reality that a company like Lululemon is just too expensive to shop at even inside of a stock market that's near record highs still despite this latest jobs report. Consumers just can't afford to go to some of these places anymore. >> No, that's a really good point and you know it's funny. I was sitting around the other day going through some charts and I was looking at Walmart and Costco and uh you know Walmart the chart is broken broke the uptrend uh it's about 20% off the highs and Costco which was a monster for many years has kind of well it stopped going up and it seems to be rolling over here. So what I think you're seeing is that the consumer you know you know people have been saying this when uh gas prices went up. I wouldn't say the consumer has tapped out but we're getting there. Um, and you know, some of these, you know, high margin places like Lululemon, like they're really going to be the canary and they're going to get hit first. >> Jared Blicker, you know what is interesting? And I I didn't even mention uh I didn't even mention Under Armour, but some of these mall stalwart from the past decade, Lululemon, Nike, even Adidas isn't doing that great. Under Armour, they've completely fallen apart. >> Totally fallen apart. >> I was just looking at the market cap on the Wi-Fi Interactive of my apparel heat map here. Mikey is 56.5 billion. Now, let's take a look at a chart. Uh, let's go to a one-year chart of Nike. So, it's down 50%. >> Shocking. >> That means last year we were talking about $112 billion company, and they're all kind of like that. Not all of them. So, let me just go to a one year and I'll put some percentages back on there. And you can see if I sort by performance, gives you a bigger picture. Yeah, we got some winners here. um ANF uh you know Crocs shoes it looks like there are some companies that are able to weather the storm but you look at the bottom row from Buckle in the lower left 2800 uh 28 down 28% um Nike down 50% Lululemon a little bit more this is just a a tough space to be in right now >> Jared I didn't realize Buckle was still a place like how's that place still even open Jared >> it's right here in the lower left of the Wi-Fi interaction >> come on it should be wiped off that board and last word to you I'm not surprised Costco's doing Stocks off its highs, but still you uh you love Costco. >> I totally love Costco. And look, the consumer is under pressure and any savings that they can get, they will get. And when it's bulk, it's Costco. >> So true. Jaredz and Jared, have a great uh holiday weekend. Appreciate it. >> Straight ahead, oneonone with Docuign CO as it was the latest software player to push back on the SAS [music] apocalypse. Uh I can't even really say that. It's just such a long word. Worries lingering in tech by delivering a strong quarter. That com was next. [music] [music] Heat. Heat. [music] [music] Heat [music] [music] up here. [music] [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. Heat. [music] [music] >> [music] [music] [music] >> Down. [music] Down. Earnings out of Docuine hitting a lot of the right notes. Top and bottom line beats on the back of more AI uptake on the platform. And there was a slight lift in the company's annual recurring revenue growth guidance. Important metric there. If I see any dings out there right now, it's that some of the street are hanging back on DocYsine stock until its topline returns to double digit profit growth. The street wants it all sometimes. Docuine co Alan Tigus is here with me now. Uh Alan, good to see you. Uh I think for the average investor out there to understand what you just reported, your outlook, they need to understand your AI pivot and what specifically you're doing on the AI front. Talk to us a little about uh some of the new initiatives you have for the company. Yeah. So about three years ago, uh I joined Doc uh CEO Doc Sun almost four years ago. We started pivoting towards providing an end toend agreement management suite that leverages modern AI and we've really been building that ever since and you can really start to see that impacting the business. Now we it it got up to 15% of our total revenue uh this last quarter and we raised our outlook for the rest of the year uh on AR growth as revenue uh operating income and that is a share of our overall business. So you can start to see how that really provides the long-term growth u that that we and investors are looking for. >> And I think uh Alan I am still a little bit of a noob on on docyign meaning I get a docuign I click down and I sign it. If I were to open up documents today, how is the user experience different? >> Documents assigned, we'll give you an an intelligent summary of the agreement. But of course, most of the value is acrru to the companies that are sending documents and that can be everything from automating the workflows internally in the document, getting more out of the agreements you've already executed. So understanding what terms are in all the agreements that you have, how how can you make sure you get what you negotiated, how can you make sure you do a better job next time and you can now automate those processes end to end leveraging AI. That's what we're doing with agents. And so it's a I think it's a fantastic time. Agreement processes are some of the least efficient uh processes inside of companies and agreement data have historically really been trapped in in in file cabinets or the equivalent, right? file holders and now we're unlocking them and making them available to people on the front line whether you're in sales or procurement or HR or elsewhere. >> We're right smack in the middle or nearing the end I should say out of planning season for for many companies. Everybody looking at the year ahead looking at the road maps maps for the next few years. What's next on the AI journey for a company like docuine? >> Well, I do think that the agentic stuff is is really where things are going. So we just announced just a couple weeks ago uh that you you can now use predefined agents that are built on the doc sign platform. You can build your own and you can leverage agents that are on thirdparty platforms to trigger actions in docysine. So if you you feel like using chat GPT or Anthropic or Gemini or Microsoft Copilot or Slack from any of those platforms, you can now you know tell me what are the prevailing terms with this particular customer or vendor uh trigger a an agreement for customization and signing. All of that stuff can happen directly uh from those platforms using all the docuign fabric uh that powers agreements. So we becoming you know the the hub of agreements for the enterprise for everyone who touches contracts. >> What about the initial uh the international uh story for a company like yours? >> Well the international is faster growing than our domestic business and has been for the last several years and we expect that to continue for the foreseeable future. We have tremendous opportunity. The US is generally a little ahead of of many international regions and so we we have a huge opportunity. Um, IA is our largest region, but we're seeing tremendous growth. Uh, we just closed our our largest deal in company history in in South America. We have a big opportunity with the government uh in the US and elsewhere. Closed our largest government deal ever in the quarter. So, there's just uh there's so much opportunity for us. uh we have we have 1.9 million customers that use DocYsine monthly and pretty much all of them are candidates to move up to this uh you know intelligent agreement management platform that we have. Uh so we're just getting started. >> So Alan, they're they're basic subscribers. They haven't even started using any of the AI stuff you put on the platform yet. >> Yeah, most of them are are are signed customers. Uh which of course is a fantastic place to start for us, right? People are very familiar with our brand. They tr already trust us with their agreements and we can now come and say look how much more value we can give you and we can often deliver a lot of that right out of the box. We tell you we can now tell you everything that's in your agreements have that power workflows. That's value you can get to within 30 days. And then there's you know more wholesome revisiting of of how you process agreements internally that could unlock even greater value that you can now do all on platform. So it's it's a tremendous uh expansion of our of our market opportunity and value proposition to customers. >> This was really the the first series of results in some time Allan from your company uh other software plays even a Salesforce a crowd strike the results really push back strongly on this view that companies like an anthropic and opening eye is going to are going to come and take all your business like what what did the market miss with that thesis? >> Yeah, a couple things. First, I think that there's so much competition in the model space now and that's actually fantastic for application software companies like DocYsine. We we already take full advantage of models from the companies you mentioned, but also from a host of other companies. Um, and as you can tell, there's announcements practically daily of new capabilities and that just augments the platforms that we can build on top of. Secondly, agreement processes are highly specialized, require a tremendous amount of trust, require access to private consented data, a deep understanding of agreement workflows. All of that is is docuign's wheelhouse. We're uniquely well positioned to do that. And so we collaborate very closely with all the frontier LLM companies. Uh we want to of course build on top of what they built. there's no sense in rebuilding things they're doing but there is so much stuff there that uh I think is left for uh somebody who really is the agreement happening for the enterprise uh and that's docu I I see you know we're probably you know maybe a few weeks away from an anthropic uh filing for its IPO could be a big moment maybe we get open eye open AI before end of the year these companies are going to have to produce growth and produce growth very very quickly doesn't that put more pressure on them to work even closer with companies like yours Um well what I would say is that it I think they all see the um the ecosystem of companies uh as very very important to them. We are in constant dialogue with them and we're building and augmenting the integrations. Uh so there is meetings practically weekly with the companies you mentioned. Um so I think that they see that it's not just about their platform but about the extension of that platform to all the tools where people do their work and where data resides and Dr. is very ubiquitous and so u I think that's a good position for us and and of course we value our partnership with them and the additional surface they provide. It's always been our philosophy. We want to be available wherever people want to do their work. So historically that's meant Salesforce, SAP, Workday, tools like that. We're still supporting those partners. Salesforce uh and and docuine been part of for 20 years and I think that only goes from strength to strength but now there's additional surfaces like the chat engines and and we want to make sure our customers can take full advantage of whichever surface they want to do their work in. >> Alan, good to see you. Good quarter. Good out. I'll talk to you soon. >> Thank you, Brian. Good to see you. >> All right. I'm headed to San Francisco uh on Monday for the annual Goldman Sachs Communicopia Tech Conference. This is one of my favorite conferences of the year, offering me direct access to some of the biggest news makers in the world of tech. And by extension, this gives you direct access because I am going to share everything I learned with all of you right here live in tech stories and on social media over the course of two days. I will do roughly 20 seuite interviews on our network. Call it my version of a fitness competition. Apply to work coverage will kick off right here on opening bid on Tuesday, September 8th. Really psyched to share with you all the insights I snag as we gear up for possibly historic IPOs from OpenAI Anthropic. Julie has you next on Market Catalyst. Have a wonderful holiday weekend. >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. Heat. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] >> Heat. Hey, Heat. [music] Down. [music] [music] Down. [music] Heat. Heat. Welcome to Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. Happy Friday. 30 minutes into the US [music] trading day. We got a mixed picture here for the markets after that stronger than estimated jobs report with 162,000 jobs being added to the US economy last month, the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1%. What does that mean? Well, it could mean a higher likelihood of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates uh coming up in its meeting on September 16th. But we still have an inflation report to get through between now and then. That could really solidify the chances. Right now, we've got the Dow down nearly 200 points, about 4/10en of 1%. The S&P 500 is off by a tenth of 1%, but for some reason, all of a sudden, this guy is not responding to me even though it was two moments ago. The Nasdaq is up by about a tenth of 1%. So that's why I say we have a little bit of a mixed picture in today's session. Since this guy is not doing what I wanted to do, we're going to turn to another guy that we have sitting in the studio with us. That's Kevin Gordon Schwab Center for Financial Research, head of macro research and strategy. Kevin, thanks for being here. It's good to see you. Good >> to see you, Julie. >> So let's talk about the jobs report first of all here and the implications of it. And I it's really interesting because it seemed like yesterday we were prepared for it to be sort of a non-event, right? Yes. you know, Christopher Waller came out and said, "I'm not too worried about the labor market. I'm more focused on inflation." And then we get this big number. >> I still think it's a bit of a non-event in the sense that much of the unwind from July and June seem to be taking place in August, especially when you look at the impacts from leisure and hospitality, probably that World Cup effect, but also this very strange distortion in local government, uh, specifically within education. So when you take those two components and how strong they were in August does unwind a lot of the the June July weakness. So in that sense and you know when you add on the fact that August tends to be heavily revised the most heavily revised month in uh in out of all of them uh it probably doesn't give you too much of a signal either way. I think it's great to see strength outside of just those two sectors that added. I mean payroll breath was was positive. I think that's been the bigger story so far this year. Uh but I but I would agree I think with what Waller said yesterday and that the focus is still on inflation. I think if anything today and he's just one member but I think if anything today you know today's report confirms that labor is still in this what he calls satisfactory uh >> right it was better than expected but it's not like everything's fantastic on the labor front or in risk of overheat. It's not an an overheating impulse. No certain on that side of things. Okay. So given all of that what do you think the Fed is going to do or you or do you want to wait until we get those CPI numbers? >> You have to. I mean, and I think what was interesting too, and it's it's interest what I thought was somewhat fascinating from Waller's comments in particular, just because of the change in tone, leaning a little bit more dovish yesterday, especially when talking about core CPI and what he would sort of allow in in his sense of not having to hike. So, if you get close to a.3% month- over-month reading, which sounds so technical, but you do have to look at it this way now, uh when you if you get close to that, then he probably still would be in the camp of of of holding. Um and of course again just one member but I think it is interesting to hear that in contrast to Worsh who took a decisively more hawkish tone and that sort of leaves us with these two I think bookends right now uh and the rest of the committee is sort of somewhere in the middle but I think you know on balance they're probably still most of them are probably still in that wait and see camp because I think they want to have a better sense of especially excluding the June inflation print I think they want to have a better sense of what the underlying trend is >> and and I'm going to ask you the question that I asked somebody else this morning which is have the equity markets It's priced in a hike. >> I think that they've priced in certainly the Well, if you look at probabilities in markets, they're certainly close to >> there's parts of the market that have priced. I'm just wondering if equities have accounted for. >> I think so. Or >> I I don't think that a I think what's not priced uh and and still uh what I think of as you know, you think about the story that's not talked about often and what's sort of ignored by by markets. I think what's still priced is not a prolonged hiking cycle, which is not our call, not our base case. But if you if you start to see things turn that way, especially into 2027, if inflation is not cooling, if the labor market does so show some more promising signs of of strengthening and broadening, um you do have to introduce at least the possibility of that, right? >> And I think that's one thing that could maybe catch the the equity market off sides a little bit. Um but I I think broadly for September, if they do hike, I I think it's probably not going to be met with as negative of a reaction because there have been enough data, at least until this point, to support that. And what if they don't? >> Um, I think that the context is is key there. Um, so I could see another you could see another instance. Not that I think July is something that Chair WH wants to repeat uh in terms of not a lot of drama with the decision, but then everything uh kind of unwinding when when he got up and started talking to the press. That's where I think you could see some disruption. But I think also, you know, evidenced by what he said at Jackson Hole. I think he he sort of has learned uh maybe the lesson of being a little too ambiguous maybe in July, but clearly had corrected that when he got up at the podium uh last week. >> Um I I asked for three charts that we could talk about and I I did that because um both you and Lisan Saunders with Schwab also like I follow you guys on social media and you are really great at putting out a lot of charts that are really um helpful to understanding the market. So for context for people who don't follow you, they should. A and B. Let's talk about the charts that you wanted to highlight. So, first of all, there is diesel and gasoline prices, which diesel has gotten a lot of attention lately. It's at a record. Um, this obviously feeds into the inflation uh picture. So, why are you paying attention to >> Yeah, I mean diesel, you know, obviously more of the the crunch is on the the business side and the farmer side, not as much on the end consumer. That's where you bring in the national just sort of regular price, which is I believe here in the white line, but the spread between the two has widened. But diesel tends to lead uh the rest of you know regular unled. So I think that the the less important thing is maybe the fact that we're at all-time highs, but the more important thing is that we're there and we're sort of sticking around at a higher floor and a higher average. So the longer that this goes on and persists and you have this higher floor for for gasoline prices, I think the longer the consumer starts to treat that increase as permanent. And if you don't see a material increase in job growth and if you don't see income growth keep pace with that that pace of energy related inflation um I think that will certainly do a lot to compress confidence even more and compress sentiment even more. Uh but eventually that starts to erode the the purchasing power for for consumers. I don't know if it necessarily is this outright recessionary signal because in percentage share terms, energy is still a very low percentage of the overall consumer basket, but it's certainly a headwind that we don't want to ignore, especially going into next year. >> And it also helps explain the transition from how something that the Fed tends to view as transitory can become more yes entrenched in terms of causing >> and the ultimate dilemma because you've got a growth that that is a growth headwind but also an inflation issue at the same time. So it's it is sort of that almost stagflationary impact. >> Um let's talk about capital goods shipments. Why why this one? >> So cap good shipments I like especially core when you take out everything aircraft related. Um it's been in an uptrend along with new orders but the shipments component is the one that maps over to GDP. So the fact that you've got this still very strong business investment environment that is a significant contributor to growth um it does a couple of things. number one of course keeps the growth picture you know intact even if consumer spending had been waning a little bit earlier this year some of that has corrected which I think is a good thing and and sort caught up to business investment but the second thing it does is it it sort of distorts the GDP picture where it gives the illusion that growth is strong which of course is true but I think for most people who are not experiencing that growth firsthand that's where I think a lot of that consumer sentiment and confidence issue what I've been calling the vibe pressure that we've talked about that's where I think it continues to drive that split >> and and I imagine A decent amount of this is because of AI construction, right? Like most, you know, capital good shipments is chips and servers and all HVAC is a huge component. Hardware is tech hardware is a huge component. Even in the the trade data that we got this week for July, it's always a bit lagged, but the semiconductor comport imports that we have, that portion of of trade, um their imports are up by 127% year-over-year. It looks like a parabolic meme stock on that chart. So you're you're really seeing a record level of activity across many subcomponents that we've never seen in history. >> Um and then lastly, this is more of a markets one than a um economy one. It's the breath for the S&P 500, the advanced decline line, right? Is that what we're looking at here or is it >> actually similar to advanced decline, but this is just the percentage above. Oh, okay. >> Yeah. Members above their 200 day moving average in the S&P. And I I like this because it it does underscore that at least right now in the for the past several months, we have been more in this rotational market than a than a correctional one. Correctional and and bare market territory is when you start to see this divergence open up between that share of companies above their 200 day moving average and then the price level of the index. So far we haven't been seeing that. So very much in keeping with what you saw a couple of months ago going into the sort of momentum implosion um especially within some of the mega caps and semiconductors and memory. But that was happening as you had offsetting strength in other areas of the equity market. So it wasn't enough to bring the index into bare market territory and that's a very different setup that what you've seen than you know the past couple of years where at times you've had the mega caps leading the rest of the market faltering and then you get a more significant drop. >> So in other words you find this reassuring to some for now I have seen a little bit of talk about that advanced decline line starting to you know the number of advancers versus decliners start to roll over a little bit. I mean this number is starting to roll over a little bit too but not but it's very short >> term. >> Absolutely. And I think that there certainly has been some internal bleeding in the market. You look at some of the weakness in industrials lately but again has been met with some offsetting pockets of strength. Maybe not in the best areas because energy has been bleeding. Of course that's more of an inflation story but uh in a broader sense of things when you think about you know the percentage of companies in an uptrend uh hasn't weakened materially. >> Okay. So you put all these three charts together. What I'm hearing you say is things look pretty sound, right, in terms of economic growth, in terms of stocks following. Um, but you know, watch the inflation picture carefully to see how that's going to play through. Is that fair to I think that for both the economy and the market and I say that because when you do look at the relationship between the bond market and the stock market and the fact that yields are negatively correlated with stocks that relationship keeps getting worse and more negative means that the bond market's king more off of inflation uh and that's all else equal putting downward pressure on stocks. So, similar to the very much in keeping with the reaction that you have this morning where stronger economic data is worse news for the equity market because there is a little bit of an inflation story embedded within that that move in in bonds and that move in in the labor market. >> Do you think we've reached the the top in those yields? >> Oh, I would have to phone a friend in my and Colin Martin with he's he leads fixed income strategies. So, but but I we're in the maybe less the better way to think about it is we're in higher for longer yield environment. I think that is, you know, whether you think about this as being the top or not, that to us is less relevant than how long we stick around at these levels. And when you have nominal GDP growing at 6.6% year-over-year and you have sticky inflation, it's just hard to get material downward pressure on on yields, especially at the long end. >> Yeah, Evan, thanks for coming in. It's great to see you. Appreciate it. We'll call up Colin together after we [laughter] get on fire. Uh coming up, a look at Lululemon's latest earnings report and what it might [music] tell us about the state of the retail market. We'll sneak in some Victoria's Secret talk as well. We'll be right back. [music] [music] >> [music] >> Heat. Hey, Heat. [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. [music] [music] Heat. Heat. Heat. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] >> Shares of Lululemon and Victoria's Secret tumbled following disappointing second quarter report reports. This comes as a growing amount of consumers cut back on premium brands. Well, the the the two stories are quite different. So, let's talk about them one by one. Joining me now is Guggenheim Security Senior Managing Director Simeon Seagull. One perhaps an expectations game, the other an actual flop of a quarter, Simeon. So, let's talk about that flop first. That is Lululemon, of course. Um, you and I have been talking about this name for years, but this was the first quarterly comparable sales decline in I don't know how long. What is gone so so wrong at Lululemon? I know our our Brian Sazi's been on the war path talking about the delayed appointment of Heidi O'Neal, the new uh CEO of the company, which was announced in April, doesn't take effect until this month. Is that what's going on here? >> Listen, I love I love First of all, great to see you, Julie. Second of all, I think it is a important point. We'll come back to Victoria's Secret, but let's point out they come to nine. So, the Well, like when Hillary's watching us, these are two very different stories. So, we'll come back to that. Now, let's hit on Sazi. Sazi uh charging forward. I'm I'm totally I I I'm in agreement, but they couldn't do anything about that, right? Choosing once they chose Heidi, she had a certain time she could start. So now wrapping all of that, if we actually just go to the business, >> listen, you and I have been talking and this is where Victoria's Secret is relevant. You and I have been talking about that work that my team has done for over a decade >> back brands peak. Like that's just what happens. They get to a certain level. They stretch too far and they become, for lack of a better word, less cool. That's three to4 billion in the US. Up until this year, Lulu has not gone down in the US. It was $6.5 billion. And so I think Lulu is a great brand. I just think it's too big. And so to your point, we're finally seeing the beginning, not the end. We're finally seeing the beginning of those revenues start coming back to a healthy level. >> I look at this one number that really stood out to me. Sales of leggings. Leggings. This is what Lulu does, right? Down 20% in the quarter. That is shocking to me, Simeon, because yes, there is the cool factor. Like I I I always look at Lululemon through through the prism of my own experience as somebody who does yoga and Pilates and who owns a lot of Lulu and other brands. Um, and I'm kind of taking like what we're seeing happen in the car market right now, like this, that's me. In other words, I'm not I'm just like wearing the stuff I already have and I'm not up I'm not rehopping it. I'm I'm fine with my existing wardrobe, I guess. So Julie, you know, I come to you for fashion advice, but I also tell you all the time, you and I, we can't use the problem with consumer investing. The most dangerous about consumer investing is we anecdotalized. And the reality is, listen, this brings me back to Pelaton days. You and I would talk about Pelon because all of our friends would see a Pelaton van driving down the street every 5 minutes. And so we extrapolated and assumed that meant they were driving down every single street in the world. And they weren't, right? And so I think this idea of what do we buy is a dangerous dynamic which is interesting because we're taught very early on invest in what you know but I think you have to know who the audience is. And so when I think about Lulu to your point the leggings is the exact point and it's not over because >> if I'm telling you they did $6.5 billion dollars and I'm also telling you three to four billion is generally where that healthy level is that brands stretch far and then come back down. >> We've got a lot more than 20% to get back. But but there are there are healthy brands that are above that level right in the US. So what's the difference between that and this? >> So just to be clear and this is a little bit of a nuance when I say well the this the three to four billion that I'm looking at are the dollars spent in the US by the consumer. That's not what you and I see companies report. >> Okay? >> Because companies are going to report different channel dynamics. They're going to report global. But to your point, there are a few. Nike obviously dwarfs this number. Now, Nike is dealing with its own question about how healthy it is, but a lot of our questions around Victoria's Secret historically were because Pink peaked at went above three billion or it peaked at three billion and came back down. And I think that's the story. And so this idea, this brand peak analysis, >> it holds almost every time. And so it called Michael Kors coming back down, it called Ralph coming down, it called coach coming down. Like at the end of the day, these are brands that appeal to exclusivity and they try to balance distribution. when you when one of them goes out of whack, when you chase something too far, it becomes less coveted. >> So, does it need to come back down to that level in order to become more coveted again? And then what are the implications of an investing case then for for that kind of trajectory? >> So, my opinion, and I'm on record saying this so I can't I can't hide behind it, is yes, I think they do. I I think that the reality is I think that the revenues the US revenues need to come down a lot. doesn't mean international doesn't have further opportunity to grow though we are seeing issues with China a bit early but I do believe that the US business is too large still I think with leggings down but I think we still have more to go and I think we will see that that makes it very difficult to the second half of your question because our estimate so that's our revenue conversation our earnings estimates have been well below consensus they've been well below expectations they've been well below the company and I just lowered them again yesterday and if revenues aren't low enough earnings still have room to go. And so I think that's why we're seeing it's it's unfortunately it's one of these death by thousand cuts as opposed to just ripping off a band-aid. And in that brand work we've done we've seen certain companies the the coach Ralph have done a really nice job at turning back around because they ripped off the band-aid. They acknowledged they went too far and they said let's fix it. What you and I are seeing with Nike, what we saw with Gap historically was the opposite. It was no let's try to fix it peacemeal and maybe try to fix it and try to grow it at the same time. And that's always dangerous. >> So what then does the new Lulu CEO need to do? >> It's a tough job. [laughter] >> Yeah. The way you're portraying it, it's really tough. >> So I don't know that they share my opinion, right? And this is an opinion. So I absolutely can be wrong. And so I think if you were to ask the Lulu board and Heidi, I believe that they believe they they lost the plot a little bit on product. They had the wrong product. they didn't do the right storytelling and if you fix it they will come right it's it's a very optimistic you and I want CEOs to be optimistic because otherwise what are we playing for right our bosses their boss whatever it is >> so I think from their perspective they believe we need to get better product we need to get better storytelling and we we need to bring Julie back into the fold even though she has our stuff we need to get her to buy more fear is it's more of a fix my fear is no this is look at the Ralph coach playbook and we need to say no what we probably went too far. We probably had too many dilutive products. We had some collaborations we shouldn't have had. We had some products we shouldn't have had. We need to give those sales back and we need to like light that fire underneath. We need people to be proud to walk into the store because we're charging them a premium for it. >> Well, I was going to ask you that, too. How much is price sensitivity an issue here? I mean, that's part of my again, I shouldn't You're right. You're is absolutely right. I should not extrapolate, but I'm not the only one feeling price sensitivity, right? I think that's fair to say. Um, and so people want they really want if they're paying these prices for that product to deliver. >> So I think what's always interesting to me is you go to econ 101 and you learn this thing called price elasticity. And what that says is if you sell a lot, you can charge little. If you sell little, you can charge a lot, right? It's just going to be depending on how many people you're appealing to. If Lululemon sold one pair of leggings, they could charge thousands of dollars for it. But they don't sell one pair of leggings. They sell a lot. And you and I have had this conversation. This conversation echoes what you and I talked about with Under Armour over the years because I think that was their problem as well. And so at its core, pun intended, pun intended, who knows? But at its core, Lulu can charge a premium. Vori and Aloe are doing it very well. They're just a fraction of Lulu's sales. I think that's what Lulu has to decide. Right now, the new guidance, what they're talking about, involves markdowns. you're going to be able to get more product from Lulu on sale because to sell $6 billion, I don't think I think you've kind of crossed through that price elasticity threshold where the prior LU price is tolerated. But if they bring it back down, if they walk away from those dilutive products, if they rembrace and kind of bear hug who loved them, what made them special, but that means a smaller business, then I think their prices are fine. And so I think that's the dynamic. Old Navy is a much larger business. Old Navy's over $8 billion. Their prices are much lower. And so I think that's part of this conversation of having to decide what's that tradeoff between selling more things versus selling things better and more expensively. >> Okay, Simeon, we don't have much time left, but I do want to ask you Victoria's Secret. And finally, by the way, they changed their ticker from Visco to V Sexy, which is much more appropriate. Um, this is an example of a brand that has done what you're discussing, that has come back from the brink, right? Um, what do you think is the key thing that they have done? It seems like that that they sold off mainly because they've done so well. So ju just fundamentals wise, what have they done that maybe Lulu should take a lesson from? >> Yeah, I think it's a great way to put it. I think the reality is the stock probably didn't deserve to be down 13% on that result, but maybe it didn't deserve to be 13% higher the day before. It's kind of a weird way to think about it, but the stock market can be weird. But in terms of pure fundamentals, in terms of the brand, Hillary Super came in, I think she's just rounding out two years, turned around the whole management team and they have really been reinvigorating what the brand stands for. And they've actually, I think to their credit, been telling us what the brand stands for instead of listening. I think the nature of what they sell was very much at the whim of public opinion. And I think the prior couple management teams started listening to people and changing what Victoria Secret stood for. And you and I know what it stands for to your point about the ticker. and they sort of diluted what they were offering and also were a very big business. Hillary's come back in and said, you know what, that pink business has given back so much volume trying to be something it's not. Let's focus on what it should be. They're seeing really nice recapture. Then she moved on or concurrently moved on to say, you know, we're supposed to be number one in bras. We're going to do that. And so I think what they're doing is they're they're returning to caring about what it is they sell instead of how much they sell. Happens to be they sell a lot, but now they're selling it with a purpose, with a story. And it's just been one of the more impressive brand turnarounds we've seen. Simeon, great to see you. Have a wonderful holiday weekend. >> Great to see you. You too. >> Thanks. Coming up, a look at the state [music] of the US economy following the August jobs work. We're also going to dig into is the K-shaped economy, is that K widening or tightening? Hopefully we'll answer it next. [music] [music] Heat. Heat. N. [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> The August jobs report showed the US added 162,000 positions last month along with an unchanged changed unemployment rate at 4.1%. This that payrolls number really blew expectations. And joining me now for what this means for the greater economy is homebased chief economist and access macro senior adviser on labor markets, Guy Burgerer. Guy, it is fantastic to see you. I've been reading your substack avidly about all of these labor issues. So, um, this number was much higher than really anybody expected. And I know folks like you, economists say, well, you can't just take one month. You did have revisions higher for the last couple of months. So, what does all of this tell us about the health of the labor market? >> Well, I think 2026 has been a year where the labor market's gotten better. It's not something we've been able to say for a few years. 23 through 25 years where it got worse. Um, but the onor rates come down by quite a bit, notwithstanding the fact that it didn't go down this month. Um, and I think just generally it's nice to see things moving a little bit in the right direction. I don't know how much longer it could continue. I think a lot of the other data we've gone like ADP claims etc suggests that the pace of improvement has slowed a little bit but regardless I mean it's nice that we are doing a lot better than I thought we would be at this point of the year and I think that better than a lot of other people thought we would be >> and and it's interesting um as Joe Bruce Willilis who was on with me earlier pointed out it is the lower wage jobs where we are seeing more growth in other words the biggest addition well we had the the local government and education adding But you also had um restaurants and bars adding a lot of employees. You have continued upward trend in healthcare although it moderated a little bit. Um information showing a decline on the sort of more probably white collar side of the equation. So what does that imply also the kind of the composition of of the gains? Well, I think we, you know, 15, 20 years ago, we were talking about this big crisis faced by workers without college degrees, and now they're ironically the ones whose skills are in high demand, whether it's building data centers, um, construction, etc., just things that involve doing things with your hands. Um whereas I think whether it's AI or just generally other trends there a lot more college students than there used to be or college grads rather. Um it's a harder job market for people with college degrees than than than we've been used to especially in the context of an economy than most people describe as solid. >> So what you recently wrote about the K-shaped economy which has been getting it's been a big discussion point right? Uh Scott Bessant has talked about that he thinks the the K is is getting a little bit better here. Um and you wrote about this recently and said, you know, really the widening happened years ago and it hasn't gotten materially worse. So walk us through that that reasoning. >> Yeah, sure. So I think that you can look at either income or wealth and it's definitely true that we had this pretty long and substantial period of of inequality widening that happened. you know in the in the thes before the great recession the great recession financial crisis accelerated tremendously we had this long period where a lot of people didn't have jobs um had negative equity and then since the mid20s late 201 reversed a little bit a lot of it that we've had you know aside from co um a long period where where unemployment's been quite low so a lot of people have been employed that allows them to to to to exper actually experienced wage gains um also to to pay down debt to acquire some assets and so as a result again this this story inequality is still very high in the United States and I just because it has not widened doesn't mean I'm going to be a polyiana and say wow we're back to to the good old days but I do think this idea of perpetually widening unemployment is sort of a story of the past we're in a world where where inequality is is high and steady >> and So what are the implications then for um I mean there are all kinds of implications right there's implications for um economic growth there's implications for economic policy certainly um as well but what do you think is the most important implication of this that inequality gap being sort of wide and steady? >> I mean I think that the the biggest implication I mean one of them by the way is that that that owning of financial assets has broadened a lot. I mean it used to be that when when we said well the stock market only affects rich people um and their spending power that was that was true and now stock ownership is a lot more widespread through retirement accounts and so to some extent you know the story is well this you know to the extent this this expansion right now is fueled by people you know essentially run cutting down savings rates um sort of spending out of future wealth that is affecting a bigger chunk of the economy. So again it's the economy is less pinned on its hopes are less pinned on very rich people but it's also true that you know in some sense if equity prices somehow reverse which you know I think there's obviously perpetual worry about that at some point that hasn't really materialized in a big way then it would cut back spending by a much broader range of the population it would have been the past because people are going to say wait a second all this wealth I thought I was spending out of doesn't exist anymore um so it sort of increased the the leverage of the US economy up and down relative to wealth And guy, you you of course see these headlines, these think pieces now and again about the American dream being dead, right? And the American dream historically has been more tied up, I think, in home ownership than anything else. If this broadening of financial assets has indeed happened, what does that imply about the American dream? Is it dead or is it just different than it was or, you know, is it is it is it even a useful term to to use anymore? >> I mean, I think it's different. I mean, it is true. Housing is expensive and I think it's particularly people early in their careers, you know, with, you know, with home prices being as high as they are, getting home ownership has been harder. Though, I think even that's contested among people that really know this area. I'm not one of them. Um, but I think just generally it's a different world. It's a world where where we're essentially US household wealth, particularly in the middle class, upper middle class, was so anchored around um owning a home. And it's still, I mean, home ownership is still a big chunk of it, but it's less than it was in the past. I think we're we're an economy where financial assets are gaining a bigger share of importance in people's net worth. >> Guy, it's great to see you. Thanks a lot for joining us. >> Thank you, Julie. >> Let's talk about diesel prices. They've reached an all-time high amid growing supply disruptions. Prices are now averaging $5.85 uh cents per gallon. That's according to data from AAA. Joining me now for more on what's driving the rise is Jake Connley. Jake, um 5.85 85. Like I think most people don't have a frame of reference for diesel prices. We see them. Yes. When we drive past a gas station, we don't pay a lot of attention to that. >> So, you know, record highs. What does all of this mean? >> Well, there was a long time where diesel prices tracked below gasoline. >> That's no longer true. To your point, this morning ahead of schedule when people thought we were going to hit it. We've just hit an all-time high. And the problem here is that we just don't have the capacity to produce more. You buy crude oil off the market if you're a refiner, but nobody actually uses crude. Everybody uses a distillate product. Diesel, gasoline, jet fuel. Diesel is what powers all those 18-wheelers that run the retail trade in this country that power the marine fuel needed for maritime shipping. It's the workhorse fuel of the economy. Refineries are running at their absolute capacity and we just don't have the supplies left and so prices have nowhere to go but up. >> So, let me just put a fine point on this. The way that we tend to think about gasoline prices, consumer uh gasoline prices, is they go up with oil prices, right? That's right. And you wouldn't see gasoline prices hitting a record high probably without oil moving up quite a lot. >> Quite significantly. >> So, this is a very different picture that you're describing. >> That's right. >> Why can't we ramp up refining capacity to meet this demand for diesel? Is it being is it very specific to diesel? Is it in other words like can you switch over diesel refining to gasoline refining? Like how does all of that work? >> It's not as simple as just turning one off and turning the other on. The other problem here we've got to zoom out is that there are two very significant wars happening for the energy market. The Middle East and the war in Russia and Ukraine. Before last year, excuse me, Russia and the Middle East accounted for about a third of global diesel refining capacity. Russia alone was 10% of that. In the Middle East, refineries have been bombed. In Russia, the Ukrainian military is bombing refineries. Russia has instituted a export cap. All of this is tightening a market where stocks were already low. The problem we're seeing is that distillate stocks, especially in this country, are at all-time lows for the season that we're in in the year, which means that you need to make more. But the refiners are already running at max capacity. So, they [clears throat] can't make more. And this is also hitting as we're about to hit the heating season for the Northeast. Temperatures drop. Demand for diesel goes skyrocketing upward. You have all three of these factors meeting at the exact same time, which is very, very bad for diesel prices. That's why they're going up. That's why they're going to keep going up almost certainly. >> That doesn't seem great. >> It's not great in terms of input costs for for shippers. >> And you think about a retailer who needs to move products across the country. That price is something they watch. It's it's the same thing as an airline and how they watch jet fuel, right? >> Anyone that ships goods across an 18-wheeler, across the sea, 80% of global commerce moves by sea. Then once it gets here, it has to get driven around to factories, to warehouses, to the Amazon warehouse that brings it to you. Those people watch that price religiously and they are watching that price and therefore their profit margin get worse and worse and worse, >> right? And maybe our costs get higher, maybe our cost. Yeah, Jake, thanks a lot. Appreciate it. Coming up, NetApp CEO and how the company's [music] managing rising input costs. Speaking of which, [music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> data [music] [music] storage company NetApp raised its fullear outlook Thursday, but some analysts noted that the acceleration of demand is not as fast as some of its peers. I got the chance to speak with NetApp CEO George Curran about the quarter and what is next for the company. >> We saw really strong performance across every aspect of our business. Our every product line, our cloud business, every geography and every customer segment, large, medium, small, public sector, all substantially outperformed our internal targets and our guidance. We beat on topline as well as on every other operating metric. And we felt that despite it being just the first quarter in the year, we raised the outlook for the full year, both second quarter and second half of the year on both topline and operating uh and earnings per share. I think it's really representing broadbased demand for data infrastructure and storage products tied to people needing to use their data more effectively with AI tools. And how how do you quantify how much of it is sort of directly pinned to the rise of generative AI versus I mean I know even at this point it's hard to you know parse out generative AI from other types of AI from other processes that enterprises are doing internally but as far as you can tell how much of it is related to that >> I think there's two elements that we describe I think one element is you know AI specific specific configurations. These are typically GPU configurations being used a specific way. We said that we had 350 wins in the quarter up from around approximately 125 wins a year ago. >> Wow. >> And the deal sizes of those wins grew materially indicating that they are now going from proof of concept into production. What we and others including the hyperscalers have talked about is that when customers want to get ready for AI, they actually upgrade all the other applications as well, right? like you know databases you know their um you know kind of analytic applications their streaming engines because they want to have the overall you know technology landscape be now really fast so that they can take full advantage of AI. Why we saw that in our business which is different from prior trends is that usually when commodity costs like silicon costs go up and they have gone up way more way higher this cycle than in the past. Customers typically try to sweat their infrastructure assets and don't buy a lot. We're seeing the opposite and we're seeing that pretty much across the board which is an indicator that people are shifting spending into our category so that they're getting ready for AI and digitization. >> So talk to me a little bit more through this this pricing question because I know you got some questions on the on the conference call today about that as well or or the conference call went about that as well. Um that you all are raising prices that your customers are paying those raised prices but what what's the cadence of it? In other words, did you see a flood of orders and closings be, you know, to try to get ahead of that price increase? And then since it's happened, what does that cadence look like? >> You know, we don't break out our order book, but we see strong momentum despite price increases. I think we are, you know, trying to be methodical about how often you raise prices so that you can build a more measured approach to working with customers rather than doing it all the time where it becomes unpredictable for them. Uh and so we try to balance input costs with you know pricing adjustments. Clearly input costs have gone up higher than you know what our prices have gone up but we've been able to balance and offset as a good amount of that which is why the product gross margin print in the quarter was higher than our original guidance >> and George what do you see in pricing in your input cost now right how much visibility do you have and is there are there any signs that those prices are del the increases are decelerating or that there's a cap in sight an end to it what do you think >> I think the real you know adjustment will come when supply is able to meet demand you know for memory chips as you know fabrication takes time to it takes time to expand capacity so I don't expect any near-term adjustment I think the whole industry is in the same boat as we are. We have focused on assuring supply availability and working with the broad cohort of suppliers. And I think what we've seen is the rate of price increases has started to slow down. It certainly not stopped and it certainly hasn't decreased, but the rate of change has started to slow down a bit. Coming up, we'll take a look at today's trending [music] tickers and we'll discuss the outlook for the fall travel season. That's next. [music] [music] Heat. [music] Heat. [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. [music] [music] Heat. [music] >> [music] [music] >> Now, time for some of today's trending tickers. We are watching AMC, Planet Labs, and Trade Desk. Let's talk about AMC. First of all, this is a really interesting story. The stock is up more than 7%. Um, the stock is now available in a tokenized uh um version on Robin Hood, but CEO Adam Erin of AMC is not happy about it and he took to social media to complain about it. He said the product was contemptable and outrageous. Uh Vlad Tennov was kind of like, what's the problem? And he said it was presented an existential threat here because he said if people are buying the token they're not getting voting rights. It sort of undermines um the ownership of the stock which is quite interesting here and not an argument that I have heard before. Aaron said he would be bringing these concerns to the SEC which has pretty much been full steam ahead on tokenization in general. So very interesting here. unclear if the stock is up because of the tokenization and because of the updraft that that maybe creates in terms of the halo effect for the stock or because of this fight that he is picking. But nonetheless, very interesting thing to follow as we have seen tokenization get a lot of um buzz uh definitely in the market. Next up, let's talk about Planet Labs. That company's uh shares have turned lower. earlier they were higher um by more than 10% in pre-market trading after the company reported its numbers. It's a satellite imaging firm and the company's numbers most of them look good. It raised its forecast for fullear revenue um raised its forecast for gross margin as well. Its second quarter results also beat estimates. Its third quarter is a little below in terms of the revenue forecast what analysts had been anticipating. Maybe that is what's going on here. unclear exactly what is happening, but as we uh look at the stock, I did want to take a look at it at our al on our Alphaspace platform versus some of the other PA space stocks, and it's performed very well. So, that's the other thing you have to put in context as you look at the stock kind of waning to some extent. You've got a Planet Labs here that has more than tripled um over the past year. And even though we've seen big gains for many of its competitors, none of them has been quite as big as we have seen for Planet Labs. even accounting for, you know, the enthusiasm around, for example, the SpaceX debut. SpaceX down here in the purple, which of course has been pretty volatile since its IPO. So interesting that Planet Labs has been kind of the outlier to the upside amongst these stocks. All right, let's talk about Trade Desk briefly as well. That company also um coming out with news that it is going to be cutting staff here about 15% of its uh of its workforce. The shares are down about uh 4%. They have been bouncing around and they have been higher at one point. Analysts over at Rosenblat say that this is a good move in terms of costs. The company came out with its earnings early in August and the shares tumbled at that point because basically the business has not been uh performing and so this just the latest here. Again, interesting to see the stock now down. The outlook for the fall travel season set to soften as elevated inflation continues to weigh on household budgets. The average US domestic airline fair has risen almost 40% year-over-year. That's according to travel booking platform Hopper. Carrie Hannon has been following these trends. Carrie travel has held up really well up till now, particularly among like sort of higherend travel offerings. >> Absolutely. And but but Julie, a lot of people um myself included put off travel till the fall because we think hey you know these are when the prices really come down and typically during the fall season the shoulder season which is considered you know from Labor Day till say mid November. Um that prices usually drop around 20% for airfares, hotel deals are there but that is simply not happening this year. They're either staying fame or they're a tad higher than they were uh this summer. So there are not some not those great deals people have come to expect uh from fall travel season. So I think people who are aiming uh to get those great deals are going to be a little disappointed this fall. >> O that's not great news. Um so Carrie if they are looking for deals are there certain areas where maybe they can find them? Yeah, I mean without question uh the different uh operators I talked to uh all mentioned that you know if you look even outside the the main uh United you know you look up to Hawaii, you look down to Hawaii or to Alaska you might find some opportunities there domestically there seem to be some opportunities from you know Montana to um San Diego. So you know isolated markets around the country you're going to find some opportunities. Um there is often uh right now because a lot of carriers have added routes to Asia that if you're looking for a big trip over to Asia, you might find some good opportunities as they're trying to fill their airplanes to get there. So uh don't forget about looking there. So I think you know really open up your scope of where you might want to go and and there's some really some basic ways to go about doing that by using you know just your your computer right at home. you can do a lot of tracking and monitoring of prices. >> And what about, you know, you talked about the the airfares. I'm curious about hotel um fairs also, how how those are changing. >> Yeah, you're right, Julie. Hotels are really, you know, it's a it's a funny game because you might see a price online if you go to their website or or what have you or book through one of an online travel agency. But if you actually pick up the telephone and call the hotel directly, that's when you're likely to get the best uh best rate for your room. And that's particularly true as you get closer to the date that you want to be there because they start seeing empty rooms and they're like, "Hey, okay, we've got some pricing deals for you." So, that's very important. I think it's also a good year if you want to go back to the airline bit for a second is look at your miles. A lot of the um airlines are offering some great deals uh for people who want to tap their miles to go places. So, really dig into what you've got socked away there and see if you can find any special deals for using your miles. >> All of these good uh suggestions. Did you I'm curious, have you looked at cruising at all to see if those prices are changing? >> Yeah, I mean, Julie, cruising has been hot all year long. I mean, this is such an important uh travel um uh angle here that so many there. It's amazing how these cruise ships have continued to really prosper and people are loving it. These all-incclusive ideas of just, you know, you know, straight up front what you're going to be paying for this trip. And there are deals. It's not necessarily on that top uh line that you see, but there's deals once you get on board for, you know, free restaurant vouchers and and various deals throughout the experience on the ship. So, um I definitely see a lot of people aiming that direction. And it's and and one particular reason there too is it's very coste effective for many people because you know you can budget for you know what you're spending pretty much upfront instead of sort of being surprises once you're on the road. >> Carrie, great to see you. Have a good holiday weekend. Speaking of which, thank you. And before we showed you um data from Yahoo Finance's Alpha Space platform and we were looking at the space stocks, you too can access all those professional grade tools by scanning the QR code on your screen. I've been getting Yahoo Scout, our internal LLM to build me my various panels and very effectively. You can do that, too. All right, that's it for Market Catalyst. I'm Julie Hyman. [music] Thanks for watching. Have a wonderful holiday weekend, everybody. >> [music] >> I want to stop. Heat. Heat. [music] [music] [music] >> [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] [music] >> Heat. [music] [music] Heat. [music]