The S&P 500 and Dow Jones rallied on Wednesday after the US midterm election results, but chip stocks missed out. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.9% and lagged both benchmarks, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3%.
By 08:07 GMT on Thursday, November 5, the S&P 500 cash CFD was trading near 7,687, just below its 20-day moving average at 7,703. That early quote puts the index close to its first test after the rally: whether buyers can get it back above 7,700 and keep it there through the US session.
S&P 500 and Dow Jones Lead the US Midterm Rally
The Dow’s outperformance and the semiconductor selloff were the most revealing parts of Wednesday’s session. The Nasdaq 100 still finished higher, but its smaller gain showed that the market could rally without one of the technology sector’s most closely watched groups taking part.
That distinction matters for the S&P 500 outlook. Large technology companies have an outsized influence on the index, so the rally could be harder to sustain if selling spreads beyond semiconductors. If the Dow and S&P 500 continue to advance while the Nasdaq 100 trails, however, it would suggest investors are still willing to buy elsewhere in the market.
The election results provided the backdrop for Wednesday’s gains. Thursday’s session offers a better test of whether the buying can continue once the initial reaction fades.
Why Did the Nasdaq 100 Lag After the US Midterms?
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index’s 3% decline stood out against the Nasdaq 100’s 0.9% gain. The two benchmarks have different constituents and weights, so they can move in opposite directions. In this case, the Nasdaq’s headline gain masked a much weaker day for chip shares.
Semiconductors are worth watching at the next US open. A rebound in chip stocks would give the Nasdaq 100 a better chance of catching up with the Dow and S&P 500. Another weak session would keep attention on whether other sectors can continue to offset losses in chipmakers.
Brent Crude Falls Below $100 as Wall Street Digests Election Results
Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel during a third straight session of declines. Lower oil prices can ease cost pressure on fuel users and temper inflation concerns if the move persists. They can also weigh on energy shares, leaving the effect on the S&P 500 mixed.
The drop adds another variable to the US stock market outlook. If Brent keeps falling and Treasury yields ease, investors may reassess the inflation outlook. If crude rebounds sharply, some of that relief could unwind. A move below $100 alone says little about how the election results will affect oil supply or US policy toward Iran.
S&P 500 Forecast After the US Midterm Elections
The immediate question is whether the S&P 500 can hold above 7,700 as more of the market joins the rally. A daily close above that level, accompanied by a recovery in semiconductors, would strengthen the case for a move toward 7,800. Another rejection near the moving average would leave the index vulnerable to a retest of 7,600, particularly if the Nasdaq 100 continues to lag.
Which US stock indices rallied after the midterm results?
The S&P 500 and Dow Jones led Wednesday’s gains. The Nasdaq 100 also rose, gaining 0.9%, while the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 3%.
Is the S&P 500 trading above 7,700 today?
The S&P 500 cash CFD was near 7,687 at 08:07 GMT on November 5, below 7,700 and its 20-day moving average near 7,703. That was an early CFD quote, not the official US cash index close.
What would confirm a breakout in the S&P 500?
A daily close above 7,700–7,705 would offer stronger evidence than an intraday move. A recovery in chip shares would also show that more of the market is participating.
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