Three Things to Know
Crypto analyst Ben Cowen warns that Bitcoin could revisit $58,000 if tech stocks roll over.
Bitcoin is sitting on its 200-day average, and momentum still favors sellers.
The first support floor below the market may decide whether his scenario gets any traction.
Ben Cowen, the crypto analyst known for his market cycle work, says the Bitcoin bottom may not be in yet.
The call lands as Bitcoin tests a long-term trend line after a month of steady losses. Its close ties to tech stocks keep equities in focus. Traders want to know whether buyers will defend this zone or a stock sell-off will drag crypto lower.
Ben Cowen Ties a Return to $58,000 to the Nasdaq
Cowen did not attach a fixed time frame to the call. He framed it as a scenario that depends on US stock markets.
His condition is a fall in the Nasdaq. Cowen argues that Bitcoin still trades like a risk asset, moving in step with large tech stocks. If those shares slide, he expects crypto to follow.
Bitcoin traded near $76K at the time of writing. That puts his target about 24% below the current price. Buyers would have to give up two support levels before his scenario plays out.
A clear move back above the 50-day average would weaken his case.
Bitcoin Slips Under Its 50-Day Average as the Month Bleeds Lower
Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin has spent the past month sliding. The price is down about 9% over 30 days. The last week added a further 2% loss. The past day was flat, so the selling has paused without reversing.
A moving average smooths out daily swings by tracking the average closing price over a set number of days. Bitcoin now trades below its 50-day average, which sits near $80K. That line has turned from a floor into a ceiling. Any bounce would likely meet sellers there first.
The longer view matters more right now. Bitcoin is sitting right on its 200-day average, a level many traders treat as the dividing line between a healthy market and a weak one.
A close clearly below it would hand Cowen’s bearish case its strongest technical support so far. It would suggest the drift lower has become a trend.
Holding the line would tell a different story. Buyers who step in at the 200-day often mark the spot where a pullback ends. For now, the flat day shows neither side has won that fight.
Sellers Keep the Upper Hand Without Panic
The momentum gauges back the sellers, though they stop short of alarm. RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 39. That reading is weak. It is still well above the oversold zone below 30, where selling often runs out of steam.
In plain terms, Bitcoin has room to fall further before the market looks stretched.
The MACD remains below its signal line, so downside momentum is still building. Trend strength readings show a trend taking shape, with sellers leading it.
Two Floors Stand Between Bitcoin and $58K
The first floor sits near $65K. Buyers defended that zone before, and it must give way before Cowen’s target even comes into view. A break below it would open the next leg down.
Below that, a second shelf rests near $63K, the last marked support on the chart. If that level breaks, little stands between Bitcoin and the analyst’s number, and his scenario would gain real traction.
On the upside, the nearest resistance lines up with the 50-day line. Clearing it would weaken the bearish call.
The real recovery test sits higher, near $82K. A push through that level would show buyers back in charge.
What Confirms or Breaks the Call by Midweek
Bullish: Bitcoin holds the 200-day average and closes above the 50-day line. That would put the higher ceiling within reach and leave Cowen’s call looking stale. A drop through the first floor would cancel this path.
Bearish: A close under the first floor, especially with a weak Nasdaq, points to the second shelf and then Cowen’s target. A reclaim of the 50-day line would invalidate this path.
The Nasdaq Holds the Deciding Vote
The trend currently leans toward Cowen. Still, his target requires both marked floors to fail, and buyers have not given up either one.
Equities cut both ways here. A sharp Nasdaq move in either direction could swing Bitcoin quickly. Traders may want to watch equities as closely as the chart.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
