Three Things to Know
I/O Fund analyst Beth Kindig warned of another big Bitcoin decline, yet she kept her long-term target.
Bitcoin now trades below both its 50-day and 200-day averages, and momentum still favors sellers.
The 200-day zone near $76,000 has flipped from support to resistance, and bulls must win it back.
Beth Kindig expects Bitcoin to suffer another sharp decline over the coming months. She still says her long-term thesis for the coin holds.
Her warning lands as Bitcoin heads for another losing week and ETF demand cools. Kindig blames a firmer dollar and higher bond yields for draining liquidity. Traders now want to know whether buyers can stop the slow bleed before the price reaches thin air below.
Kindig Sees One More Leg Down Before the $2 Million Story Resumes
Kindig, a tech analyst, posted on X on Nov 6 that “one more large drop is coming over the next several months.” She also said her long-term $2 million Bitcoin thesis “remains intact.” She gave no timeline. She stressed that the path will be uneven.
Kindig tied her caution to a rising dollar and climbing bond yields. She called global liquidity the key driver for the coin. Tighter money tends to drain demand from risk assets like Bitcoin.
The market already shows that strain. Bitcoin is on track for a fifth straight weekly loss. Spot ETF buyers added $526.6 million on Oct 19 and $528.4 million on Oct 21. Then outflows of $643.3 million followed. Cumulative net inflows shrank from $58 billion to about $56 billion in two weeks.
Her target is large, yet past growth supports it. Reaching it by 2035 needs about 44% a year, said analyst Charlie Bilello. That sits below Bitcoin’s decade average near 59%. JPMorgan puts volatility-adjusted fair value near $266,000. That is roughly double the $126,080 record set in October 2025.
Bitcoin Slips Under Both Key Averages as the Monthly Slide Deepens
Bitcoin (BTC) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
Bitcoin traded near $74,000 on Monday, flat over the past 24 hours. The coin now sits below its 50-day moving average near $79,000. That average tracks the price trend of roughly the last two months, and it now acts as a ceiling.
The bigger change sits lower. Bitcoin also slipped under its 200-day average, now around $76,000. Traders watch this long-term line as the dividing mark between a healthy market and a weak one. It had been the last cushion under the price, and buyers failed to defend it.
On the daily chart, that same zone now marks the nearest resistance. A level that once held the price up now caps it. Bulls need to reclaim it before any recovery talk makes sense.
The monthly picture shows a slow bleed. Bitcoin is down about 10% over 30 days. The coin topped near $84,082 on Oct 21 and has drifted lower since. No single crash did the damage. Sellers chipped away day after day, and each small bounce faded.
That pattern matters for Kindig’s warning. A steady grind often signals that demand is thinning, which fits her view of tighter liquidity.
Bitcoin also lost about 5% over seven days. A flat session after that slide only shows sellers paused.
Sellers Keep the Upper Hand Without Reaching Exhaustion
Momentum readings back up what the price shows. The daily RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, sits near 34. That reading is weak, though still above the 30 mark where a market counts as oversold. Sellers have room to push further before the coin looks stretched enough for a typical relief bounce.
The MACD, a tool that compares short and longer price trends, also leans bearish. It remains below its signal line, so momentum is still pointing down. Trend gauges add one more detail. A trend is forming, and sellers lead it.
These signals describe a market sliding steadily without panic. That profile fits Kindig’s call. Buyers usually wait for clearer exhaustion before they commit fresh money.
Where Buyers Must Step In if $76K Stays Out of Reach
The first test sits right overhead. Bitcoin needs to climb back above the 200-day zone and close there for several sessions. That move would turn this week’s slip into a false breakdown, a break that fails and traps late sellers.
A stronger signal waits higher. The next resistance stands near $80K, close to the 50-day average. Closing a session above that line would reset the trend in favor of buyers. It would also weaken the case for an imminent large drop.
The downside looks thinner. On the daily chart, the nearest real support sits around $63K, far below the current price. Little stands in between to slow a decline. Without buyers in that gap, a slide could move quickly once it gains pace.
That open space is where Kindig’s warning could play out. A fall toward that floor would match the “large drop” she expects.
Two Paths for the Next Three Days
The levels already on the chart decide which way Bitcoin breaks.
Bullish: A daily close back above the 200-day zone would open a test of the 50-day ceiling. Buyers would then have a real chance to end the weekly losing streak. A drop back under this week’s lows would cancel this case.
Bearish: If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 200-day line and RSI keeps sliding, the deeper support comes into view. A close above the 50-day average would cancel this case.
The Long Thesis Survives but the Near Term Belongs to Sellers
Until Bitcoin climbs back over the 200-day line, the chart agrees with Kindig’s short-term caution. Her long-range target stays a separate story that today’s price action does nothing to support.
The main risk comes from outside crypto. A firmer dollar and rising bond yields could speed a slide toward the deeper floor.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
