XRP bulls are running out of room as the token tests a support zone that could separate an ordinary correction from a deeper breakdown.
XRP traded around $1.40 on Monday after falling from roughly $1.66 in late September and briefly touching $1.32 last week. The rebound has prevented a confirmed breakdown, but the technical picture remains fragile.
The immediate danger sits around $1.35-$1.38. A decisive daily close below that area would expose $1.30 again and make the bearish $1.25 scenario increasingly difficult to dismiss.
Why XRP’s $1.35 support matters now
Several technical levels are packed into the same area, making the next daily close unusually important.
FXStreet analyst John Isige said XRP’s short-term path remained tilted lower unless buyers could secure a convincing close above $1.40. FXStreet places the 50-day EMA around $1.40, the 200-day EMA near $1.38 and the 100-day EMA around $1.34.
Momentum is also weak. Investing.com’s late-Monday technical reading classified XRP as a Strong Sell, with RSI in bearish territory and most major moving averages generating sell signals.
That means losing $1.35 would not represent one failed support level. It could remove several technical cushions at almost the same time.
Crowded XRP longs could accelerate a breakdown
Positioning makes that risk more dangerous.
XRP’s long-to-short ratio stood near 2.32 on Monday, according to Bitrue Research Institute data cited by Yahoo Finance, leaving bullish leveraged positions outnumbering shorts by more than two to one.
Crowded longs are not automatically bearish, but they can amplify a decline if support fails and stop-losses or liquidations are triggered.
There is a bullish counterweight. Whale exchange activity remains subdued, suggesting large holders are not rushing to sell. That could help XRP stabilise if buyers continue defending the current zone .
Could XRP price really fall to $1.25?
The $1.25 level is still a downside scenario rather than a confirmed target.
Technical analyst Egrag Crypto sees XRP consolidating broadly between $1.30 and $1.45, but identifies $1.25 as a potential breakdown level. CryptoFrontNews reported that losing it could expose the $1.18-$1.20 region.
Institutional demand also remains resilient. US spot XRP ETFs attracted $11.31 million in net inflows last week despite XRP falling sharply, although Bitwise accounted for $10.55 million of that total.
XRP has now slipped below the $1.35-$1.38 support zone on a daily closing basis, putting the technical picture under greater pressure.
Unless bulls quickly reclaim that area, $1.30 becomes the next key support to watch. A deeper break could then bring $1.25 into focus as the chart’s next major downside test.
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