Stock Market Crash Risk Changed in Just 3 Days, Peter Grandich Says

All right. The last time Peter Grantage sat down with us, gold was near $3,000. That was about a year ago. Now, he said, "Don't put a top on it." Of course, it ran past 5,500. Then, he says he got out before the drop. Now, his warning about stocks have gotten stronger. He kept saying a stock market crash was unlikely, but not anymore. This summer, he cut his family's holdings to two stocks. [music] The rest went to cash and tea bills. Today he tells us what gets him buying again and who he thinks gets first uh gets hurt first rather. [music] Peter Grantage joins me next. >> In Focus with Jeremy Saffron is presented by Kshi trade gold and silver perpetual futures 247 at kshi.com. All right, welcome back. I'm Jeremy Saffron. Peter Grandage [music] has spent about 42 years in markets Wall Street of course once called him the whiz kid. Stick around later. He'll tell us what he buys first and the lesson that cost him millions. Uh [music] Peter, great to see you. Welcome back to Kiko News. >> Always a pleasure and an honor to be on your group. >> I appreciate that, mate. Uh crazy interesting summer. I mean, not huge on the gold front, but last time you were here, you told me when the mainstream media starts talking about gold every day, that's when we should start talking about taking profits. Well, here we are. What told you it was time? Well, it was early in the beginning of the year and it was really just a straight parabolic move combined with a lot of sentiment of people just, you know, feeling that the only way it can go was up and higher and the numbers were piling on every day. I mean, there were other reasons, but that was the primary reason. And we're almost, not there yet, but we're almost 180 degrees different now. Now, we have a lot of people feeling that basically the gold move is over. higher interest rates are going to kill it, if not the dollar and a bunch of other things, and I I better get out. And uh those type of sentiment indicators in a computer-driven world now may not be as reflective as they once were, but to me, they're still important gauges to use. >> So, I mean, what did you sell? What did you keep when you saw that? >> Well, when I got out, I I got out of everything but one stock. Wow. >> Uh and the metals and uranium and all of that. Uh I've been back. I've traded some uh I've spoken now that we're not there yet, but we're close. And as hard as it will be for some gold bulls or bugs, whatever you like to be called these days, may not like the next few words out of my mouth, they're actually bullish. And that is a brief visit under 4,000 here from this level, which isn't a lot. uh would really psychologically set up I think a really strong bottom that gold needs to go into 2027 to go back to challenge the highs that were made earlier this year and move towards uh record highs in 2028. So uh shortterm little bearish but anything past a few weeks or uh maybe a month or two I think it's it maintain a very bullish stance towards gold. >> Interesting. So I mean in a market as you just talked about you know being run by computers which sentiment signal do you trust here the most? I mean if gold dip center 4000 is that when you start buying? >> Well it's hard for an old gizer like me that grew up with pads and pens when most of the people now everything is computer-driven algorithm. Let's keep this in mind. 60% of the money in the US stock market now is in passive investments. people aren't even using active management anymore. And of that remaining 40%, twothirds is algo type trading. >> The same could be said on the commodity end of the market. So computers tend to have more of an impact than individual sentiment, but there's still a point in time when human resource plays a role. and human resource right now especially when you read you know the comments that are made out the throwing in the towel type of attitudes and all those are things happening more towards an end of a move. We had a little bit of a disadvantage for gold bulls in last week. We had a big holiday in China and that was critical because the physical market China and people in China think totally different about gold than US investors right now. Right now on a weekend the their malls are full of people shopping for gold. Here in the US our malls people shopping for stuff that they don't need which they can't afford. I'm betting that China and its accumulation of gold and hard assets have made the right choice and therefore since they are continuing accumulating it in such an aggressive manner without an ability to trade it for a profit suggests to me that you you you error with the side of the people with the money and that's central banks that continue to buy aggressively gold. M. So, I want to move on from gold briefly, but to the AI stocks and what have you, but you you brought up that, you know, that quick break under 4,000. Would that matter more than, you know, the slow grind there? Do you think it would kind of set it up? >> I just think it people things become self-fulfilling prophecies in these computer-driven algorithm programs. Everybody's looking that the artificial intelligence is coming up with the same support level or whatever and they almost become self-fulfilling prophecies now. Now for a long time it's helped the stock market go up. This for passive funds the funds kick in uh the those certain types of stocks rise people see that they throw more money in it and it kind kind of comes a self-fulfilling prophecy. What people have not realized, and there's a great gentleman out there that's done great studies, and I'm a great reader of his, Michael Green, who's demonstrated that this passive investing could also work negatively to the downside. And I think we're getting to that level. So, for the short term, we've broken down technically on gold. We have a false belief that interest rates rising is bad for gold. And let me explain that to you, Dere. Right now, you can hear through financial commentary. I'm not saying you, oh, gold's going down because interest rates are rising. Well, if that was the case, then people need to explain to me the two biggest rallies ever in gold since it's been free trading. The 1970s in the first half of this decade, interest rates rose dramatically. Yet, gold rose with that. So, I I don't buy into that. I think it's more short-term trading. Technicals uh impacting the market. The paper market still influences the short term, but the physical market which is continuing now to build up and become stronger than the paper market. People are using weakness in gold to buy, not strength to sell. >> Yeah, that's an interesting one. I mean, you know, we had uh Peter Chiffon yesterday kind of saying the same thing. I mean, the Fed raised rates from near zero to over 5% between those years, 2022, 2023. Gold still went from 1,800 to a record of 55.95 by this January. So, who sets the gold price dayto day? I know you just said, is it the paper traders or the physical buyers? >> Well, I would say that that battle is almost evenly split. We still get some influence over uh in Europe into the US, but the physical market is clearly moved to to Asia. We're now seeing more exchanges open there and taking away the interest from the CME and of course uh the London exchange. Now the question we don't know is with all this talk of 247 365 trading and these betting uh facilities now able to take actual gold bets, I don't know how much more volatile it's going to come. But Asia is really really controlling what the price is, not like the used to be in the old days when it was London. So on a day, you know, where yields jump and and gold drops, what should someone who owns the metal ignore, >> uh, the very fact of what you just said, that should have little or no bearing if you're a long-term investor. >> You you're buying gold now or or have been buying gold now because you believe it's a store of value. What's really ironic, Romy? I mean, I've been around the block. I've been here 42 years. I've been through some bull and bear markets. I also for many years worked within the hard asset crowd where every other speaker was talking about the world coming to an end and all stuff. The most amazing thing now is for the first time ever, many of the things that people spoke about for 20 years that was going to supposed to be bullish for gold and didn't happen. It's happening before our eyes. And I just think people have heard it for so long, they can't even believe it when it's actually happening. So, I just think that there's strong fundamental reasons to want to own gold, especially versus bonds. If you think about now to hear some people on in Wall Street who treated gold like kryptonite from my entire career now suggesting splitting bond ownership with gold, in other words, to 6040 going from 60 2020 20. That's a huge change and that has critical long-term ramifications that we're now seeing institutional investors, not the public yet, willing to own physical gold now versus bonds. >> Yeah. Yeah. And that repatriation, too. Uh, okay. We're going to continue talking about gold and miners in a minute, but I want to get to the broader stock market. I mean, because now you say a crash is no longer unlikely. What changed for you here, Peter? I mean, I'm looking at the S&P closed at a record this week. I know you kind of said that there's a handful of AI stocks that are holding a house of cards and that you called AI an industry that you thought kind of peaked. So where are we at? Who's left holding the bag? >> Well, the reason I didn't think there would be a crash up until now is is because that passive funding factor was really overriding the market. That and the fact that twothirds of financial advisors and their clientele have never experienced a bare market. So, they've gotten used to you always buy a pullback and you can't argue with them because that's worked so far. What changed my mind in the last 3 days, that's when it's changed for our clients and my readers, is that we're now seeing great deterioration underneath that one group that's doing well. I put out a chart. We have the average stock in the S&P 500 is down in double digit factors from its high, some as much as 30%. And more and more we're actually having more new lows each day than new highs despite the S&P making a new high. And maybe it's the old dinosaur in me uh and people say the technicals don't matter and all but when you see weakness and less and less participation, it's usually a good sign minimally of a serious correction coming or a major change of foot. And that's where I think I fall into the camp. >> Yeah. Interesting. So explain to me what you saw those three days that you haven't seen in in three years because you know that generation that you're talking about is paid every single time they bought the dip. What happens you know in the first time the dip doesn't come back. >> Well I view it as someone that learned to drive on a one-way street. I mean if you just learn drive on a one-way street it's a lot of fun pretty easy and until you come to two-way traffic or traffic circle and that's what I think we're approaching now. So that group that's always had that and remember part of that aid that helped them was a Federal Reserve that could just create money and we would treat trillions of dollars going out. We can't do that anymore. That's not going to help the next financial crisis and all. Now at the same time as I said a lot of the companies that you would think would be doing well aren't. For instance banks the major banks today this morning the top 10 went into a corrective phase. They've now fallen enough from their highs that you would now call it a correction. Historically, when the financials, especially the big banks, turn down, it's a precursor to at least a significant correction, if not a top in the stock market. >> You know, I was reading the Financial Times this morning, too. The cost of ensuring Oracle's debt against default and even Nvidia has jumped in recent weeks. Is the bond market seeing it first? >> Well, the bond market, I think, is more than that. The bond market is impacted by all these groups coming in and trying to borrow money to play this financial game where they keep passing around. All right, I'm going to buy you, you buy this, and I buy that and it ends it back up in the villia's hand. But besides that, the bond market is also going down because worldwide people are demanding higher interest rates because most Western civilization countries have gotten themselves into deep doodoo. We're not alone in this. Canada, Japan, much of Europe, the EU is basically on on life support system at this point in time. So that's a that's a reason as well that we have it here in the US. And this is when I go back to I told you earlier, this was one of the big arguments in the hard asset camp for years about someday the US debt is going to come back and pay a heavy price. Well, we're approaching that now, people. That's one of the reasons why the bond market's acting. We just went over 40 trillion. Now Jeremy, I have to tell you something. >> We didn't know what a trillion was when I started in the business because nothing was at a trillion. But now there's 40 trillion. And here's the important part about that. The largest year we've ever taken in as a country in revenue was 2025. We took in5 trill200 billion. The deficit right now is running well over two trillion. Again, the this year's budget was budgeted at 7.4 4 trillion. We're going to have a two trillion deficit. 65% of America's cost is fixed. It's social security, Medicare, veterans pay, things you if you cut, you basically end people's lives. We're getting to the point where it's legitimate now to argue we may start having problem paying our interest in just a few years. It's no longer 20 or 30 years down the road. It's right in front of us and the can can't be kicked much longer. >> When the bill comes due, Peter, I mean, who pays first? Is it the bond holders? Is it the taxpayers or or is it savers through inflation? >> Uh taxpayers because at least in the United States, here's the issue that we face, and I tell our planning group of prospective clients this. Twothirds of Americans are working paycheck to paycheck. Some as much as earning 300,000, but still working paycheck to paycheck because of the lifestyle that they're trying to live. It's going to be very hard to bleed that group much more out on the tax end. Yeah, you could raise gas prices and all and they'll just cut back and eventually if they get too stressed out, they seek the government to help them. >> Then we have the richest 1% wealthiest Americans now own more assets, dollar value than the entire middle class. So they're doing okay. That's where Trump's golden age is living in that 1%. The bulk of the rest of the people are the people which governments can do the only two things they can do. Raise taxes and cut services. But they instituted something kind of new here in the United States. And it's maybe more used to in Canada and other places. Socialist type programs were mandatory benefit programs by states charging certain zip codes in the state high electrical bills, water bills and all in order to pay for other people in other zip codes in the state that are determined that they have trouble or can't pay that at all. The problem comes down and the big story for the rest of the year and as you know I wrote about it is the election. If the election leads to more leaning left, meaning Democrats at least get back the House, if not possibly the Senate, but also governorships and and other localities, we're going to see more of that type of attitude of taxation and socialist type programs at a time when there's a smaller percentage of Americans that can pull that wagon. You know, so many more people have gotten in the wagon now and those of us that are left pulling are trying to figure out how we can get in the wagon, too. And so that's the big challenge. Taxation and cost of living. If the analysis the day after our election holds the way I think it's going to be, the poll people who speak to people as they go in to vote are going to be talking about cost of living >> and just cost of everything is the number one concern. And it normally is. The economy is normally the driver on how people end up voting in a voting booth. And it's going to be very challenging for Trump and people who supported Trump to argue things are better now than they were two years ago. >> And what do you think you'd kind of do with your own money before November 3rd here? >> Well, for me, I'm actually uh I've had a very large cash position. I'm I I'm looking for I think is a lifetime opportunity in the mining. And ironically in Canada, this bodying the proposals go through of this dramatic change in taxation, how companies are going to be taxed, how more ample it's going to be and free to not only explore but get the support of governments and regulations and things permitting and all of that. The uniqueness now, and this is the other part of that hard asset drives crazy, the mining industry has never had a better supply and demand scenario since I've been in this business for 42 years. There was always ample supply of something out there. Copper or there's always a lot. Now that isn't the case and it's in every man kind of for himself in the world countrywise in order to secure these so-called critical minerals. And now Canada has finally woken up to the fact that the one great thing we have going for us cuz your hockey is a little bit tougher these the these days but critical minerals natural resources and what pisses me off if I can say that on kid my president if we ever would stay friends that we were for all these years with Canada combining that we could have both come self-sufficient based on natural resources and other availabilities we have here. So I think there's an opportunity in the Canadian mining and expiration unlike look any other place. And so I'm hoping and I have picked out a series of companies that in this corrective phase which I still think there's a possibility we go lower here first. That's where I hope to put my money to work. >> Interesting. Okay. I'm going to want those picks. Uh, I want to ask you one more question about the banks because you brought it up there and I didn't get a chance to jump in, but I mean you were talking about, you know, the banks are starting to kind of have that downside. I mean, banks fastest growing business is is lending to hedge funds and and borrowing has tripled since 2020. If the banks are cracking, I mean, is that the reason? >> Well, I think there's a lot of reasons. I think people are growing concerned that there's just too much extension on the debt level. You know, we still have a very troubling private credit issue. We still see people locked up, unable to get large sums back of their money. All those businesses that were financed through those private credit uh equity deals, a lot of them are filing bankruptcy. People are troubled. They're losing their jobs. There's a lot of stuff outside of that top 1% echelon. There's no doubt about it. Those people have done very well these last two years, but the by and large Americans have at best gone sideways to down and therefore the banking industry faces all the same challenges that everybody else does. But even worse is the entertainment and restaurant business. When you see the McDonald's and those type of companies making new lows and constantly going lower, that's an indication that the typical American can't or won't spend money like they used to. And that's where the trouble also falls in the banks. Lending slows down and one thing feeds on another. >> Now traders on Kelsey the predictions market put the odds of a recession next to about 20% for next year. Uh Peter, I mean just does does your crash need a recession? >> Well, I'm not saying we're going to have a crash. What I've just stated differently is there's now the potential for it that didn't exist before that. And therefore to our clients at least we were urged to take some sort of protective measure in case that does happen. What I will say this is the economy is not as bad as it might be otherwise for certain people that upper echelon is doing fine. Corporations have actually lowered their debt level. the average company where the trouble lies is on the government and individuals and we still see 70 to 80% of Americans living at least one lifestyle above where their finances support and so we don't have room for any typical slowdown without it greatly impacting a a large mass of people and I think that happens if what I'm feel is going to happen in the election moves into 2027 and then I think then we'll have a dramatic slowdown. Recessions are recession the old story was it's a recession when your neighbors out of work it's depression when you're out of work. I I don't know how severe it will get but I think we've seen the peak in employment and the $64,000 question is what is AI doing to all of this? There's a certain camp that says, "Oh, don't worry. AI is great. It's not going to take away." And then there's a camp where I just seen people who were having jobs or the injuries that used to offer jobs just have been completely wiped out by AI. And the combination of AI and robotics, I don't know how we have the same type of employment scenario 5 years from now. >> Hey, I mean, Wall Street's don't worry, be happy kind of crowd say that that rate rates have peaked. I mean, what are they missing? Well, they've been saying uh it's been a buy since the bottom. I listen, I made a at the time even I thought I was a little bit crazy and certainly most of my clients at the end of 2021 I believe rates were going to reverse and go a lot higher. In fact, gold would outperform stocks and bonds. I literally told clients to sell treasury bonds to buy gold. Now, I can tell you a very good friend security attorney who was a client of mine says, "Pete, you're risking a lot of trouble there because if it goes wrong the other way, they're going to say you don't do that. you don't sell bonds. Bonds are safety and you're telling them to buy gold. Well, that turned out to be the correct factor. The problem now is about bonds. People don't realize how much more important and bigger the bond market is than the stock market. And I'm just telling you this, everybody now thinks it's peaked. It's peaked. We heard that at 4%. If we get above 6% on the 10-year, I I would just tell you some sort of financial crisis has occurred. And it's, you know, everybody can see it. >> Right. Right. Yeah. I mean, on October 2nd, you did say that the 10-year could hit 5.3, maybe 5.4 by month end. I mean, it touched 5.36 this week, the highest since 2002. I mean, where does this top? >> Well, I just think it's going to it's going to work its way higher. And the issue that we haven't seen yet is we remember we I don't know why the secretary treasurer thought that that would somehow help to say I'm the house. I mean, he literally just peed off people to challenge them to know that. But I don't see Japan sacrificing themselves in order to save us by continuing holding their treasury bonds and all. So, the key that we need to watch for is out of Japan. If we start to see serious selling of treasuries by Japan, because we already know China, Russia, and some others have done it, that's going to be the issue because the thing that's held interest rates from even going higher is hedge funds in the US going into the Treasury market, but they've used leverage and above 6%, they're going to get in big, big problem. So, the big number to watch if for any reason the 6% is taken out on the 10-year, I'll say to you then that you'll be hopefully wanting to talk about some sort of financial crisis that's now occurred because of that. >> I'll be saying you're right, Peter. I'll be saying you're right. Now, listen. In July, obviously, the US and Japan teamed up to prop up the yen. What happens the day that Japan has to choose between defending the yen and buying our bonds? uh they're going to choose for themselves like anybody else would like we will. And that that's that that we had to resort to that tells me that we're in far worse shape than we should be. We shouldn't need to have to do that and all. And the issue is is that you have a Treasury Department that seems to be operating opposite of what the Fed is trying to do. They don't seem to be on the same wavelength. Now, I don't believe there's going to be a rise in October. I think it it it it's political suicide to raise rates there for them. I think they'll wait till after the election, but I have no doubt in my mind that December we will have another rise in interest rates. And at that point, depending on the election goes and people shift and views and all, then we'll have to relook at it and see how things look for 2027. But the least resistance still to me in interest rates is up, not down. You know, today uh the Treasury is buying back up to 6 billion dollars of long bonds right after its 30-year auction. And the Fed's own minutes yesterday said uncertainty over the buyback program helped push those long-term yields up. I is the Treasury quietly doing the Fed's job holding down long rates without calling it money printing. Is that what we're we're seeing? >> There's a great argument to that, Jeremy. You can take it. I I I think a lot is on hold until after the election. I it they can say that they're not influenced by it, but they are. To raise the rates here in October would just be viewed as totally, you know, for one reason against Trump. Now, that's a man that really can't take criticism or a view that people are against him. And my fear is is that not only if the Democrats get the House, but if they also somehow get the Senate or make the Senate a tie, I can't see him lasting his last two years under what will be constant 24/7 365 attacks and you efforts to make his life miserable. Now, I neither have TDS or a Magna Hat. I'm [clears throat] calling things just the way I see it. And that is the unknown that Wall Street does not have any idea what to do. So the election and how it turns out is going to play a big role whether I keep my views past then or have to change them. So the next three weeks plays a big role on what may happen in my view for the metals for equities for bonds in 2027 and beyond. >> All right, that's an interesting one. Uh listen, Kelsey traders are putting the odds of a December rate hike at about 74%. I know you said October you don't think one's going to happen. Do you think there'll be one before the end of the year? >> I think in December they do. Uh the the everything that's happening on the inflation it says you can't have the this long of a level where energy prices have been so much higher especially diesel. You also have a a real good chance of a major food crisis because fertilization did not get out to the areas of the world that needed it. I had two clients that have farms that literally sold their fertilizer because it was worth more selling it than they could have made using it to grow vegetables or whatever else that they had and all. One of the things again that's not being spoke about and that's going to be the higher food costs that are coming because of shortages. So there's a whole bunch of things out there that suggest inflation and the perception of inflation which many times is the more important factor is going to remain high. And therefore I think they have to cut I'm sorry they have to raise rates again in December to look at least like they're not behind like they were the last time when they were transitory used to be used which you're not allowed to use anymore in a federal building anywhere. H I'm thinking about what you're saying because Americans I mean we saw that data this week. Americans expect almost 4% inflation over the next year according to the New York Fed. I mean that's the highest in three years. The WTO says fuel and fertilizer bottlenecks could keep prices high as well. I mean you were just talking about those shortages there, Peter, not just higher prices. What does a shortage look like in America? >> Well the sad part of that is and it's something that both my wife and I are very personally involved in. People don't realize how many more Americans now are struggling to eat the simplest of foods in order to maintain their lives. >> And it's no longer just the poorest of poor or the people that are on bad luck. It's to two workingclass families that steal combined because of the cost of food and all uh need to seek aid. The greatest growth in any business unfortunately and I believe it's in Canada as well is in food food banks and that in itself is is troubling. Unfortunately what comes also impacting us now is weather and weather and how it's in impacted uh on the agricultural side. Now I've never been an agricultural expert. I'm not about at this part of my life to start looking into should I be long soybeans or something. But I will tell you this, agricultural commodities as a group should work higher, not lower because of this and other reasons. >> You know, there's another article today. Wall Street's on pace for record profits this year. Over 90 billion. Goldman's top executives are splitting a $500 million bonus. So, I mean, you're sitting here talking about working families can't afford groceries. What happens when the gap gets this wide? Well, that's why socialism and communism gets a voice. People are willing to hear that. Now, the people that are on the other side of that coin and there's always during that point in time, you point to those people with the wealth. See, they it's because of them you're suffering. That's why people who would not normally be even get a voice can make this argument. this K economy, this separation of wealth has never been more diverse as it is right now. We see it uh in in in our work in a food bank. We see people with income who would never imagined that they would be on a line to get food but because of cost and all uh you know we have some wealthy neighborhoods even here in New Jersey and they all want media workers to come but those people can't live in those same neighborhoods and all. So even the cost to go to work is become quite expensive and all. So there's a great divergence and that's what's opened the door for this very hardleft thinking that's gripped and we even hear it now uh from from Senate races in Texas and Minnesota and all these are people that are close to or actually leading who 10 years ago on those same topics we would imagine they wouldn't have a chance to win and that's the change that's happening in the United States and remember the Magna people cuz I'm married to one she's not in the other room right now. They thought this gentleman was going to change that, make America great again. I argued that not only did it not make it great again, it's actually made it worse off because we did the worst of all things, he took a big stick into a trade war instead of an olive branch. And now the biggest of people that would be allies and supporters of us, and you don't have to look any further than Canada, the United States, which Canada was my home away from home for 25 years. >> Mhm. There's many of those people who are not rooting for Donald Trump or Donald Trump's associates and people that support him to win. And these all things have caused much more challenges for the average American. Yes, the elite, the top 1%, they've done well, but the vast majority of Americans have not in the last two years. >> And Peter, if voters keep turning to bigger government, what's the asset that survives a government that wants more of your money? Well, it it it's going to be ace. Uh I'm not telling people for tax evasion, but tax efficiency. Uh you're going to see people uh have less confidence in the paper, which again is another bullish factor for gold. And then the people of real wealth having money outside of the United States or outside of the ability for the government uh to take control or whatever. Now, I'm not in one of those camps. There's always somebody sending me an email about a person that's claiming they're about to seize our our money in our bank and all that kind of stuff. And my feeling is always this and I you want honesty and that's all I ever give you. If it gets to the point where the United States has to knock on my door and take my money that's in my bank and go through my walls and take my gold and all life has become a place where I wouldn't want to live anyway. I don't think we get to that level. I pray that we don't get to that level. But I think you have to have an idea to be more thinking of safety. And that's why I think gold is going to become more of an asset base held by Americans. Americans, if we go to the typical brokerage firm right now, you'll see little or no ownership of gold. They might have a a mining stock or something. Go into Asia, it it's vast. People own gold just like, you know, we own general stocks here and all. And where's growth mostly happening? in Asia. So, gold has a very strong long-term opinion. Get past this last corrective consolidation phase and get into 2027 and I think it's going to be a very bright 2027 for things related to gold. >> Interesting. And let's keep on this opportunity play because copper is one that you've stayed bullish on. I mean, uh $4 in 24, $5 and 25, 6 and 26, and 7 and 27. I mean, uh, I'm looking at it right now. What do we got on the spot copper side? I know that Kiko has a chart here somewhere. We're looking at about 658. So, basically, your call, I mean, uh, what gets it to seven? >> So, you're right. When it was under three, that was my prediction. You know, four, five, six, seven. Again, what I said earlier, and it's not just for copper. The supply and demand scenario for many metals, not just super critical ones where the spelling is tough or pronouncing them, but general base metals has never been more bullish overall in the entire 42-year career that I've been involved in. The copper argument only gets stronger, not worse off. Now, there used to be an argument, oh, Dr. copper, as soon as the economy gets weak, copper goes down. And it's true because there was always this ample supply sitting somewhere that we could pull from that doesn't exist anymore. And the usage of it now and at the same time, this is the real bullish part. The places where we do get it from have all sorts of problems. Either the grade is dropped and now we got to move twice as much rock to get the same type of grade out. They're having political, sociological or geological problems of getting that out. So there's there it's it's only a question of working higher and the seven may even come before 2027, but but like I said, it was the strongest of the metals. And it was a metal that I never thought you could trade out of and get back in at a lower price. And I just think it's going to work higher. And it's and it's very interesting how the mining industry now has been willing to add copper even if they're a gold company. And the ideal project, and I'm going to talk my book for a second, but an ideal project is a gold copper deposit. That is the beauty of all beauties to have. And and that's why I say both gold and copper and silver uh should only work higher once the gold and silver gets past this last corrective phase that it's currently in. Now, >> and on the miners, I mean, I was looking at this report from Koface this morning. It's a it's a global credit insurer. They say it can take 15 to 20 years to bring a new mine online. And copper could be short by as much as 17% by 2035. So I mean if if supply and demand never catch has never been more bullish as you just kind of mentioned. I mean why are so many mining stocks still cheap? >> Because the general public >> not >> and doesn't doesn't get taught about that. The average financial advisor I'll give you an example general. I have I'm part of a wonderful financial planning group. Uh my partner and I have been for 25 years. is the group managers almost $2 billion. >> He could spell gold and copper, but he couldn't begin to tell you what it is or what it's used for and all. And that unfortunately is the typical financial advisory here in the United States. Now, in Canada, it's always a little bit different because natural resources was part of the life and all. We're only starting to see people waking up to that. And how we know that is we just had the two big conferences take place in Colorado, particularly the second one where the majors go. And what was interesting from the we heard from the people that were there well over the half of people there were not just metals player. They were generalist investors or fund managers etc. But they've now heard about the metal situation and they're out looking for what they should invest in. And that's why I think to see if change is happening for us and why I want to get invested in this corrective phase to take advantage of hopefully of these folks coming in next year and the year after and the year after that. It's amazing. So, I mean, advisers won't touch it. I know that there's some career risk there. Maybe they don't understand it as you said. So, the day advisers start pitching miners to their clients, I mean, is that the time you sell? If someone's advisor says no to minors, what should they ask them back? >> Well, if you're telling me to buy, this is my argument all along. You're telling me to buy AI that these data centers and everything is going to make money. Well, what do you use to build a data center? And how do you get the electricity there at all? Shouldn't I be looking at those companies, too? And that's where it's lost out on. And that's what I think people are waking up to. Now, the data center stuff has peaked, especially if there's a democratic change here in the US. They are going to use that to slow down this massive growth that we've seen in that. But people have to understand copper isn't just based on that. It's just the absolute overall usage versus the availability of the supply. And so that's why I think mining, especially now that Canada in in a project in Canada where a major can say, "Wait a minute, I'm going to get 25% basically off my cost thanks to these new new tax incentives. Plus, you're going to change the way of permitting and and and all of that. I rather focus here than in some place in South America or some risky place in West Africa." So Canada has a chance to grab the so-called bull by the horn by following through on this and see that happening and I'm prepared to take that opportunity and chance with them. >> Yeah. You know, a year ago feels like a a lifetime ago, Peter, but u we were talking and you predicted that the big miners would start buying the juniors and once that first log moved the whole jam would kind of break. Uh we've seen a little bit there, but is it starting to break? >> Oh, I think it's it's it's been well. has just been on the upper upper echelon. >> Right. Right. >> What I think happens now is and again we need these things to go into effect. Talk is cheap especially, you know, from from the current gentleman in Canada. People want to see really actually happen. And let's not also face this and this is important too and I know I'm speaking to a Canadian. You have a large Canadian audience. This is also happening in a time where there's a couple provinces that want to get away from Canada. So that may also play a role on how things go. But net net I think majors uh will continue uh on that trail. I think the other thing that's also happened is we finally seen in the junior market a shakeout of these lifestyle companies. For a lot of years these companies existed really just for this whoever was in charge float an issue say I'm going to drill here. We've seen that wash out. So a lot of the companies that are left are legitimate. Now, eight or nine out of 10 are never going to find a mind or something that's worthy. But failure is still going to be the norm in the junior, but I think the business as a whole has begotten a lot better. And if I was 20 years younger, I would go back into it again full-time. I really think it's probably in its best possible shape ever. But at this point in time, uh, I'm just going to focus on the Canadian aspect of it, mostly for my own self. >> And I mean, that last cycle too, I mean, a lot of bad press, right? And there was a lot of cheap paper out there, a lot of these um you know, first class flights, good food. Uh but last cycle too, the majors overpaid near the top and wrote off billions. Are they making the same mistake again? >> No. That's why, like you said, you haven't seen those deals in. And they've been very, very prudent. And [clears throat] they're using their paper. They're not getting into debt. They're not borrowing money of billions of dollars acquire project. They're taking over one and offering their paper. their their stock and that's a better way for them to go and they're much more prudent and let's face facts if you watch how this Agno Eagle runs and how they run like a machine. I mean you I mean they really do. So I I think there's been on the upper upper echelon a much stronger uh more manageable more focused uh and counting their pennies than used to exist. and that old boys net that used to exist where the few of them are you stay there with no they're competing with one another now and uh you know so that's another positive for them to stay in better shape than they might have been 10 or 20 years ago >> you know you were talking a little bit about Canada there it's interesting right because of what we're seeing I mean when the majors do go shopping who gets bought first is it the cheapest ounces or is it the safer and safest jurisdictions now >> I think if I had to say it would be The second I think they look at that first. They've been burnt too much. We've seen now in some areas of the world where seizure has occurred and all. I mean it used to be this if you and I were at the uh Vancouver show in January 25 30 years ago we could have spun a globe >> put our hand on and go yeah we can go mining there. Not anymore. The world has shrunk dramatically to where they're going to operate. again taking us back to North America and particularly Canada versus a lot of other areas in the world. >> Hey, I was going to ask you about royalties because we talked to Nico Eagle. I mean, are you looking at royalty companies? Is that a safe play right now with their costs low? And um and I guess I should ask you too. I mean, when a company like goes shopping, what are they looking for that most juniors just don't have? Well, taking an example of a stock that I'm looking to buy again and uh so that's my bias to speak about it. Plus, I'm a big fan of the CEO. I I've learned the hard way uh that at the end of the day, what's going to separate these companies is management. >> Management. >> Geologic management is the key. And uh I've been blessed now to find a few. And I and I was able to because I found a true gold mine in this gentleman, Michael Gentilei, who's just a unique one of the smartest individuals I ever met, let alone in the metals and mining. And he's put a process together and people and all to separate and and and find the worthy projects and all. But one of the things I've learned in all of that is management. So Agno Eagle just recently took a stake in Rison Mining. Rison Mining CEO Matt Manson by the time he arrived at his job two years ago to now it's not a coincidence that they've had such growth and success because of his skills and leadership. It's very important and I say this to people in juniors where maybe just three to five people may have influence on what the company is doing. It's very important that that group is skillful and working for you and and and clearly is uh proven that and all. And so when you see an Agno Eagle take a position like that and they've done such due diligence. I've understood what they went through before they did this. Uh it says to me that this is not just a stake and this is something they think's a pretty good chance especially since Rison's project bought as one of theirs and it makes sense that they can both come together. So those are the type of things that I think offer us upside with some protection of not seeing 90 or 100% of our investment loss. But I think it's important when a major like that takes a stake, especially if they then upgrade it again and take more of a stake. That I think is a vote of confidence that usually will work out for the better. >> Interesting. Uh yeah, Michael, I mean, Gentile is on this show in late October. Uh I'll talk to him about Rison. Any other picks for our audience in terms of those because or I guess I should ask you for someone who doesn't want to pick a single stock? I mean, do do you they buy the big minor fund or the junior minor fund? Right now, >> I I think for people that aren't going to get very deeply involved, absolutely. Whether it's GTX or GTXJ, uh there are a couple funds I I I'll just say this because I mentioned it before. >> Yeah. When you can get management, the supply and demand argument bullish for yourself and location and everything that you need to be successful, then I think you have a winner. And that for me is my by far largest ever investment in anything, North Copper and Gold. It's a copper gold project being developed in in Vancouver, British Columbia, uh Vancouver Island. And uh it has everything going for it. But here's a key one. We just talked about management just it's a plug for my book but it's a more important to explain why management is important. So they had a guy who's probably in the top five most successful people in the last 40 years on the exploration side worldwide in man in mining. Alex Davidson he came into bar American barrack when it was a small company head up corporate development exploration and turned him into the biggest gold company in the world. retires very happy Canadian Hall of Fame, joins the board of the company and now is actively running things at that company. When someone like that does that, they're not doing it because they got a bunch of options or they got a lifestyle and all something there has interest them enough to do that at this point in time. When you take all the other factors about it, those are the type of ways that I think we need to look at. Success breeds success. This is an industry where failure is the norm. And when you look at that, the CEO who ran BHP projects all around the world. Those are the type of people that I've learned now. It's better to bet on them than some guy that's, you know, 30 years he's been kicking around, but he's never really developed anything. Why do you think this is going to be the time now that he will? >> So, you love the miners and yet a lot of your own money is sitting in cash. I mean, they call you Riverboat Pete. What does it take for Riverboat Pete to sit in cash? >> Well, she's not here so I can say it. Riverboat Pete prepared to be Riverboat Pete again. I have a shopping list. I talked a little bit about it today on my ex page. >> I am in a sense hoping there is a little bit more weakness in gold that these things come off. Give an example. I was a huge bull on uranium twice and we caught them both times. They all the stocks ran up 100% or more. I got out in 2025 and I took some abuse from people about oh you know everybody who's going to the moon is doing this now they come well off they're not yet at a level to buy in my view I pointed today to some areas where I would but here's the interesting thing the argument has never been better >> for nuclear energy never ever better more need of it now than any other time before so now all these people should be banging the drums and all these rockets that they were sending off and all yet the shares are 30 40 some of them 50% off their highs. One of the area other areas that I'm looking to go shopping in is the uranium stocks. I'm not there yet and if they [clears throat] don't go down to those levels I won't chase them but I will buy them on further weakness. >> I mean buying when everyone's scared sounds easy. It isn't. Uh what actually gets you to press buy? >> What you just said? You know, I I used to be called years ago besides the Wall Street Whiz Kid, Mr. Contrarian. Uh I've always gone down the road others don't seem to want to go down. And so the tendency I used to hear also when I professionally managed money. You know, Peter, you tend to be too early. Well, I learned one thing and I had to lose millions not once or but twice to know that it's better to be a year too early than a day too late. And so I I don't mind if I'm a little early on this if I get in, but I feel pretty good about this story multiple years out. And Jeremy, that's another important thing. One of the biggest changes in investing in my career is how shortsighted people have become. >> The average research report in 1980s had a three to five year outlook. If you say 3 to five years about anything to anybody, they'll look at you. I'm granted I may wait 3 to 5 months but 3 to 5 years to double my money. Nuh-uh. So I'm still in that camp. I think if I can purchase these things and live this natural life, God willing, 3 to 5 years from now, these things could be a lot higher. And that's and by the way, it's the only sector that I can find right now that offers value. There's no other type of sector outside of natural resources or commodities that I feel is undervalued. So that's another reason why my focus is so on this level. >> Now listen, uh we're our time always goes too fast, but I got to ask you a couple things because you brought up uranium. I mean, you took abuse for selling uranium and for selling gold if I could think about it, even though it was the top of the market. How do you sell when everyone's yelling at you to hold? I mean, what has to happen kind of specifically to uranium before it's back on the buy list? >> Well, right now it would just be share price because the the the argument for it, like I said, is as bullish as ever. It hasn't been that these shares have come down because there's a disappointment, the demand or the usage of it is not going to be what everybody expects. No, it's as strong and as needed as ever. It's just that the shares went far too far too fast with too much hype. And people think in calendar years, Jeremy, so as we get into November, December, people like to start fresh. Anything down 30, 40, 50% tends to be a tax law sale, especially if they have something that they already had a gain in. So I don't have to pay Uncle Sam or Canada, whatever, the taxes. So the combination of a market that may have peaked, some pressures in the metals, and we're getting toward year end could open the door for me to go back into the uranium stocks. Now, you've watched millions of prophets disappear, I think, twice. Uh, what was the lesson? >> Marry a very understanding wife. Seriously, people talk about that, but I think another type of woman might have left. You know, when you make millions of dollars or multiple percentages of what your worth is and then the next day you don't have that, it's a hard lesson. But you know that also came with youth and that also came at a point in time Jeremy where money was my god. But 25 or so years ago that changed and that helped me not as focused feeling that I had to make as much money as I once thought I needed. But one of the things I think that's real important now if I may close with this and this is a standard ground rules that I give to our clients. One you have to spend less than you make. Two, you have to you have to error on the side of caution. It's okay to be a live chicken versus a dead duck. And it's not going to be how much we make, but how much we don't lose, which is going to separate the winners from the losers. >> I think you described a a guy in a red suit on one shoulder telling you to, you know, get back into the Canadian juniors and and a white angel on the other telling you to focus on faith. Who's winning right now, Peter? Well, up until about two weeks ago, the red guy had a shot, but I've decided to go with the with the other voice and all, but uh it is tempting and and again, if I may say this also is this extensive interview you did, I talked about coming on to your show because I've watched your interviews. It's very very critical for people to understand there's surface people and then there's in-depth people. So far, you filled the shoes great of the people that previously were there by staying this indepth. I just had one of the most fantastic in-depth interviews that you just did. I had as much joy as as I hope your viewers did. But that's important because people watch 30 or 60 second stuff and people say there's only two types of advisers. Those who say what they think, which hopefully me and in your sense how you do your financial media, or those who say what they think, people want to hear and it sells. Yeah. >> And so I appreciate this opportunity that you given me. It was a blessing to have this much time to share my views and I thank everyone at Kicko and I've always been a big fan of KitKo. >> Thanks, Peter. I I appreciate you saying that. Uh, you know, I'm a journalist by trade even though I was on the buy side for years. So, I'd like to think we asked things a little bit different. Um, I'm not the best at taking compliments, but I'll take that one from you. Hey, last one to to to finish this up. I mean, finish this sentence. in in 2027, people will wish they had >> been more conservative and less risky than they were coming into it. >> I like it. All right, Peter Grandwich. You can find him at peterrrenwich.com. And on X, as you mentioned, some great tidbits there as well at peterrrenage. Thanks for coming back. Thanks for tell us telling us, you know, when you changed your mind as well. I appreciate it. >> Thank you and God bless you, Karen. >> You too. All right. 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