Prediction markets went from a niche product to a business worth billions of dollars a month in about a year. Traders buy and sell yes or no contracts on sports, elections, prices and news events.
This article collects the latest statistics from Pew Research Center data, Macquarie, CryptoRank, Reuters, Forbes, MetaMask and PredictionScout. The numbers show fast growth, a heavy lean toward sports and a growing fight over who should regulate the industry.
Prediction Market Trading Volume Statistics
Combined monthly trading volume across Polymarket and Kalshi rose from under $5 billion in September 2025 to about $24 billion in April 2026. That figure comes from a Pew Research Center analysis of data from The Block. Forbes described the increase as nearly fivefold.
Legal US sportsbooks handled an average of about $14 billion a month in 2025. By April 2026, the two prediction market platforms were moving roughly 1.7 times that amount.
Forbes noted that the boom is creating tension. Prediction markets fall under the CFTC, which has taken a hands-off approach to regulation even as the industry has grown.
Macquarie reported that total prediction market volume reached $20.1 billion in September 2026, up 1,079 percent from a year earlier. The analyst linked the rise to better liquidity, a wider range of markets and rising consumer awareness.
Figure 1: Monthly trading volume on Kalshi and Polymarket, compared with the 2025 US sportsbook average.
PredictionScout offers another view by counting settled markets that passed set volume floors. Kalshi went from 564 such markets in January 2025 to 32,835 in September 2026. Polymarket peaked at 21,686 in April 2026 and slipped to 12,392 in September.
Month
Kalshi markets settled
Polymarket markets settled
Jan 2025
564
1,375
Jul 2025
1,853
2,313
Jan 2026
15,376
14,687
Apr 2026
17,458
21,686
Jul 2026
32,611
16,814
Sep 2026
32,835
12,392
March 2026 is left out because PredictionScout says Polymarket’s count for that month is low due to missing volume data.
Prediction Market Volume Forecasts for 2026
Macquarie forecasts that prediction market taker volume will reach $187 billion in 2026. That is 8.5 times the $22 billion recorded in 2025. The forecast is slightly below the firm’s $190 billion projection from September and above its earlier estimate of $169 billion.
Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon expects sports contracts to remain the main driver of growth through the end of the year. He also expects the 2026 US midterm elections to support more political trading.
Figure 2: Macquarie’s 2026 taker volume forecasts compared with the 2025 total.
Headline volume can mean different things. CryptoRank said prediction markets recorded $188 billion in contract volume between July and September 2026, nearly 70 percent higher than the previous quarter. It counts each contract at its full $1 value rather than the price the trader paid.
Under that method, a contract bought for 20 cents adds $1 to reported volume. The figure does not show how much cash changed hands or how much revenue operators earned.
PredictionScout adds a second caution. Kalshi reports contracts and Polymarket reports US dollars, so the two cannot be added together. Neither platform publishes an official monthly total through its public API.
Measure
Figure
What it counts
Macquarie, 2025 taker volume
$22 billion
Amount traders paid
Macquarie, 2026 forecast
$187 billion
Amount traders paid
CryptoRank, Jul to Sep 2026
$188 billion
Full $1 value of each contract
Pew, April 2026
About $24 billion a month
Kalshi and Polymarket volume
Looking further out, some industry estimates say volume could reach $1 trillion or more by 2030. MetaMask notes that this would depend on growth beyond sports.
Kalshi vs Polymarket Statistics
Kalshi and Polymarket report their numbers in different units, which makes direct comparison hard. PredictionScout found that Kalshi has traded 174.0 billion contracts across all of its series. Each contract pays $1 if the trader is right.
Polymarket’s open interest, which is money in open positions worldwide, stood at $329.9 million on October 2, 2026. That figure covers the global platform, not the US exchange.
Recent weekly data from CryptoRank shows Kalshi pulling ahead. Its weekly volume rose 86.3 percent to $19 billion, and it set a daily record of more than $4 billion on October 11. Polymarket’s weekly volume rose 85 percent to $3.7 billion.
Figure 3: Weekly volume and volume added in the latest week on Kalshi and Polymarket.
Kalshi added $8.8 billion in weekly volume, compared with $1.7 billion for Polymarket. That made Kalshi the main source of the sector’s net increase. CryptoRank also named Kalshi as the main driver of growth in the July to September quarter.
Overall weekly volume is up 73.2 percent since the last week of summer. The latest weekly gain slowed to 3 percent, down from 12.6 percent a week earlier.
Metric
Kalshi
Polymarket
Weekly volume
$19 billion
$3.7 billion
Weekly growth
86.3%
85%
Volume added in the week
$8.8 billion
$1.7 billion
Open or active events
13,894
20,304
US App Store ratings
566,987
60,186
Average rating
4.8 of 5
4.6 of 5
App ratings are counts of ratings, not downloads.
What People Trade on Prediction Markets
Sports dominate. PredictionScout found that 73.5 percent of all Kalshi contracts traded were on sports, or 127.9 billion contracts. Crypto is next at 19.6 percent. Politics and elections together make up 2.5 percent, or 4.39 billion contracts.
Pew Research Center data shows a similar split by dollar volume. Sports account for 80 percent of Kalshi’s volume and 39 percent of Polymarket’s since July 2024. Crypto and politics together make up 52 percent of Polymarket’s turnover.
Figure 4: Share of Kalshi contracts traded, by category.
Peaks follow the sports calendar. On Kalshi, 87 percent of March 2026 volume, or $9.9 billion of $11.39 billion, came from sports. Macquarie said sports made up 79 percent of September volume on the largest platform as college football and the NFL got under way.
Interest is also spreading to everyday users. An SSRS poll published in May 2026 found that 5 percent of American adults use prediction markets for sports trades. The share rises to 11 percent among men aged 18 to 34.
Other categories are growing too. An a16z crypto analysis of the Pew data found that every non-sports category is adding users faster than sports. In mid-2026, Polymarket listed 598 technology markets, 590 geopolitics markets and 339 pop culture markets.
The FIFA World Cup winner market became the most liquid sports prediction market ever run on Polymarket, according to MetaMask. The tournament opened on June 11 across the US, Canada and Mexico.
Polymarket market
Volume
As of
FIFA World Cup winner
Over $3 billion
Late June 2026
NBA champion
Over $414 million
June 1, 2026
English Premier League winner
$322.6 million
Resolved May 2026
Eurovision 2026
$195.8 million
After May 16 final
F1 drivers’ championship
Over $184 million
June 1, 2026
Federal Reserve rate markets
Over $103.7 million
June 1, 2026
Midterm Election Betting Statistics
Betting on the 2026 US midterms has already passed the total for the whole 2024 cycle by a wide margin. The Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) found that traders have bet more than $220 million so far, compared with $92 million in 2024. Reuters reported the figures on October 14, 2026.
ACDC reviewed more than 21,000 midterm markets on Kalshi and Polymarket through September 30. It compared them with 463 markets on the 2024 congressional races.
The type of bet has changed. In 2024, 71 percent of election markets asked who would win a race. This cycle, only 16 percent do, while 58 percent focus on the margin of victory.
Figure 5: Total midterm betting and the share of markets on race winners, 2024 vs 2026.
Most volume still goes to winner markets, and many narrower markets barely trade. Activity is also concentrated in a few races, led by the Texas Senate contest between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton. Maine, Michigan and South Carolina also draw heavy betting.
A few traders drive much of the total. The top 1 percent of wallets on Polymarket’s international platform account for 70 percent of congressional betting volume.
PredictionScout counts 165.2 million Kalshi contracts and $89.6 million in Polymarket volume on 2026 Senate, governor and control markets. Polymarket’s political category held more than 1,700 active markets and $3.3 billion in total volume as of June 1, 2026.
Measure
2024 cycle
2026 cycle
Total bets
$92 million
More than $220 million
Markets analyzed
463
More than 21,000
Share of markets on winners
71%
16%
Share of markets on margin
Not reported
58%
2026 figures run through September 30, 2026.
Public opinion is not in favor. A Reuters/Ipsos poll found that most Americans oppose using prediction markets to bet on elections. Kalshi has suspended a handful of candidates for betting on their own races.
Prediction Market Accuracy Statistics
PredictionScout reviewed 33,716 settled questions on Kalshi and Polymarket that closed between January 1, 2025 and September 30, 2026. One day before the outcome was clear, the favorite won 74.0 percent of the time.
Accuracy depends on the price. Favorites priced between 70 and 80 cents won 65.9 percent of the time. A well-calibrated market would land between 70 and 80 percent.
Figure 6: How often the favorite won one day before the outcome was clear.
At the high end, favorites priced at 95 cents or more won 97.3 percent of the time. Among heavy favorites priced at 90 cents or more a day out, 590 of 12,609 lost, or 4.7 percent.
Economic data markets have a strong record. Kalshi’s favorite was right the day before in all 28 Federal Open Market Committee decisions from May 2023 to September 2026. A month before, it was right in 25 of 27.
The study applied volume floors and counted only markets that resolved yes or no. Voided markets were left out.
Test
Result
All favorites, one day out
74.0% of 33,716 questions
Favorites priced 70 to 80 cents
65.9% won
Favorites priced 95 cents or more
97.3% won
Heavy favorites (90 cents or more) that lost
590 of 12,609 (4.7%)
Fed decisions, day before
28 of 28 correct
Fed decisions, month before
25 of 27 correct
Polymarket says its election markets had a 98 percent accuracy rate one day before an election. That is a company claim reported by Reuters, and it was not part of the PredictionScout study.
Prediction Market Lawsuit and Regulation Statistics
PredictionScout tracks 84 federal lawsuits involving Kalshi, Polymarket, Crypto.com or Robinhood’s prediction markets, plus 22 appeals. Of these, 59 were filed in 2026. State regulators, attorneys general or officials are a party in cases across 20 states.
Forbes reports that Kalshi alone faces more than 30 lawsuits. States argue the company runs an unlicensed sportsbook.
Figure 7: Federal lawsuits, appeals and state activity involving prediction markets.
Courts have not agreed. The Third Circuit ruled for Kalshi in its dispute with New Jersey. The Sixth Circuit reached a different view in cases involving Tennessee and Ohio, and the Ninth Circuit rejected the idea that federal commodities law automatically blocks state gambling enforcement.
New Jersey’s challenge has support from the NFL, attorneys general from 39 states and the District of Columbia, and tribal gaming interests. There are calls for the US Supreme Court to step in.
States have tried other tools. Arizona filed criminal charges against Kalshi, though a federal judge paused the case. Nevada and Michigan won injunctions, and Massachusetts won its case, but enforcement has been hard and users could still place trades during appeals.
State lawmakers are also active. PredictionScout tracks 79 bills in 15 states, and six states have enacted one: Connecticut, Illinois, Kentucky, Minnesota, North Carolina and Tennessee.
At the federal level, the CFTC has proposed adding event contracts to the legal definition of swaps. A separate interim final rule would say casino-style gambling products are not swaps.
Item
Count
Federal lawsuits
84
Appeals
22
Lawsuits filed in 2026
59
States in federal court with a platform
20
State bills tracked
79 in 15 states
States that enacted a law
6
Comments on CFTC request (CFTC-2026-0331)
3,535
Comments on CFTC proposed rule (CFTC-2026-1189)
1,398
Prediction Market Fee and Tax Statistics
Prediction markets earn money differently from sportsbooks. They charge a fee on each trade instead of taking the other side of a bet. Revenue rises with volume no matter which side wins.
Forbes gave an example using Kalshi’s formula, which is 7 percent times the number of contracts, the price and one minus the price. A contract priced at 42 cents pays Kalshi about 1.7 cents. If a trader bought 10,000 contracts, Kalshi would collect $170.52.
Taxes add to the gap. Sportsbooks pay state gaming taxes that range from 6.75 percent in Nevada to 51 percent in New York and Rhode Island, plus the 21 percent federal corporate rate. Prediction market providers typically pay only corporate income tax.
Figure 8: Taxes paid and after-tax income on $100 of net revenue in New York, as modeled by Forbes.
Forbes uses a $100 example in New York. A sportsbook would pay $51 in taxes and keep $49. A prediction market provider would pay $7.25 and keep $92.75, a difference of $43.75.
Access matters too. Thirty-nine states have legalized sports betting, but California and Texas are not among them. Residents of both states can still trade sports contracts on prediction markets because the platforms operate under CFTC oversight.
Two states have moved to close the gap. Kentucky enacted a 14.25 percent excise tax on operators’ transaction fees in April 2026, and the law is being challenged in court. North Carolina’s budget would tax net trading fee revenue at 6 percent.
On $100 of net revenue (New York)
Sportsbook
Prediction market
Taxes paid
$51
$7.25
After-tax income
$49
$92.75
Sportsbooks, Public Companies and Public Attention Statistics
Traditional operators hold small shares so far. Macquarie found that one operator held 63 percent of domestic sports event contract volume in September. DraftKings had about 4 percent and FanDuel, owned by Flutter Entertainment, had about 3 percent.
Their reach is limited by state rules. DraftKings and FanDuel do not offer sports contracts in states where they run licensed sportsbooks. Their shares were about twice as high in states without legal online sports betting.
App data points to room to grow. In week four of the NFL season, DraftKings and FanDuel made up 11 percent and 7 percent of prediction market app downloads.
Figure 9: Public companies and filings that mentioned prediction markets, 2025 vs 2026.
Corporate interest is rising. PredictionScout found that 72 public companies mentioned prediction markets in 152 filings in 2026 through October 2. In all of 2025, 16 companies did so in 24 filings. A mention does not mean the company does business in prediction markets.
Public attention has changed too. English Wikipedia’s Kalshi article drew 73,052 views in September 2026, well below its December 2025 peak. In US Google searches over the last 12 weeks, interest in Kalshi scored 32, Polymarket 18 and “prediction markets” 2 on a relative index.
English Wikipedia article
Sept 2026 views
Peak month (views)
Kalshi
73,052
Dec 2025 (248,494)
Polymarket
51,207
Nov 2024 (155,895)
Prediction market
16,043
Aug 2026 (68,376)
Key Takeaways From the Prediction Market Numbers
Monthly volume grew from under $5 billion to about $24 billion in seven months, and forecasts point to far more in 2026. Sports supply most of that activity, and Kalshi is leading recent weekly gains.
Accuracy is strong when markets show high confidence and weaker for mid-priced favorites. Midterm betting is rising from a small base, with much of it concentrated in a few races and a few traders.
Legal and tax questions remain open. Courts are split, states are passing their own rules and the Supreme Court may have the final say.
Sources
Macquarie forecasts $187B prediction market taker volume in 2026 , SiGMA News
Popular prediction market categories in 2026 , MetaMask
Inside the booming market for US midterm election bets , Reuters
Prediction Markets Hit $24 Billion A Month. States Are Fighting Back , Forbes
Prediction Market Statistics 2026: Volume, Accuracy, Lawsuits and More , PredictionScout
The post Prediction Market Statistics 2026: Kalshi, Polymarket and the Numbers Behind the Boom appeared first on Blockonomi .
