Australia’s September jobs report was weaker than expected, giving the RBA more room to remain patient. For the AUDUSD, the report helped push the price lower. The technical breaks that followed have given sellers more control.
In the video, I look at those breaks, the levels sellers need to stay below, and the next downside targets.
Employment falls, but the details are mixed
The key seasonally adjusted figures showed:
Employment fell 39,300, compared with expectations for a 20,000 increase.
August’s gain was revised lower to 29,300 from 39,500.
Unemployment was 4.7%, above the 4.6% expected. August was revised to 4.7%, leaving September unchanged at the rounded level.
Full-time employment rose 34,400, but part-time employment fell 73,700.
Participation slipped to 66.8% from 67.0%.
Underemployment increased to 6.3% from 6.2%.
Hours worked edged up 0.1%.
The employment-to-population ratio fell 0.3 percentage points to 63.6%.
The participation decline deserves attention. With fewer people working or actively looking for work, the unemployment rate did not fully reflect the weakness in employment. The lower employment-to-population ratio reinforced that softer picture.
There were offsets. Full-time jobs increased, and hours worked edged higher. The smoother trend figures also showed employment rising 15,700, with unemployment holding at 4.6%.
My read? The report gives the RBA more room to pause, but the details are mixed enough that one weak headline does not settle the policy outlook.
Broken support gives sellers more control
For traders, the economic report provides the catalyst. The technical levels help define the bias and risk.
The move below the 0.69620–0.69778 swing area increased the bearish bias. The subsequent break below another swing area at 0.69056–0.69205 gave sellers another victory. That move was helped by the stronger PPI and retail sales report.
That lower area is now the nearby risk-defining zone.
Stay below 0.69056–0.69205, and sellers remain in control. Move back into the area, and traders need to be alert to fading downside momentum. Get above 0.69205 and stay above, and the buyers would have a victory of their own.
A recovery would then shift attention toward the broken 38.2% retracement at 0.6950. Buyers would need to reclaim that level to improve the technical picture further.
A technical floor and the midpoint are the next targets
On the downside, the next key support zone comes between 0.68321 and 0.68632.
Within that area sits the 50% midpoint of the move higher from the November 21, 2025 low, at 0.68488.
The combination of the prior floor and the midpoint makes this an important area to watch. Sellers would first need to break below the upper boundary at 0.68632 to open the door toward the midpoint, followed by the lower boundary at 0.68321.
The trading lesson: define what would change your view
A bearish headline can push a currency lower. Sustaining that move requires sellers to defend broken support and push through the next downside targets.
The sellers have taken control. Their job now is to keep the price below the broken swing area and build on that advantage.
Can they keep the momentum going toward 0.68488? Stay below resistance, and that remains the next objective. Reclaim the broken levels, and the bearish picture starts to change.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
