The USDCHF moved to a new high yesterday going back to May 2025, but the buyers ran into a key technical target on the daily chart.
The 50% midpoint of the move down from the 2025 high comes in at 0.8400. Yesterday’s high reached approximately 0.83944, just short of that midpoint. Sellers leaned against the level, and the price rotated lower.
The buyers had their shot at extending the rally. They could not get through the next major target.
That gives the sellers a level to define risk against on the daily chart. That level remains going forward. Stay below 0.8400, and there is room for a further corrective move lower. A move above—and the ability to stay above—would be needed to open the door for another extension to the upside.
The daily chart puts the pullback in perspective
Although the rejection is meaningful, the daily chart also shows that the USDCHF has made progress to the upside over recent months. The price moved above its 100-day and 200-day moving averages and worked its way through prior swing levels.
The question now is how much of that progress the buyers can hold.
Below the current price, the 38.2% retracement of the broader decline is at 0.82116. That sits near the upper end of a daily swing area between approximately 0.81706 and 0.82148.
That area becomes important if the selling gathers momentum. Below it, the rising 100-day moving average near 0.81156 provides another longer-term reference.
However, before getting to those daily targets, there are closer levels on the hourly chart that will help tell the story.
The hourly chart shows sellers taking back control
Looking at the hourly chart, the decline from yesterday’s high has taken the price back below several technical levels.
The price fell through the swing area at 0.83415–0.83480, moved below the converged 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages near 0.8320, and then broke below another swing area at 0.82908–0.82971.
Those breaks have shifted the short-term bias toward the sellers.
The latest move lower has brought the price into another well-defined swing area between 0.82636 and 0.82740. That zone has acted as both resistance and support since mid-September. It is a level traders have paid attention to before, and they are paying attention to it again.
With the price trading near the lower boundary, the pair is sitting on the edge.
Hold the floor—or open the door for more selling
For buyers looking to slow the decline, this is an area to make a stand. Holding the lower boundary and getting back above 0.82740 would be a first step toward stabilizing the price.
However, buyers would then need to reclaim 0.82908–0.82971, followed by the hourly moving averages near 0.8320, to take back more control.
Conversely, a break below 0.82636, with momentum and the ability to stay below, would open the door toward 0.82243–0.82250. That area combines the hourly chart’s 38.2% retracement of the recent rally with a prior swing level.
Below that, attention would turn toward the daily support around 0.82116–0.82148.
The sellers have earned more control on the hourly chart. Now they need to get through the next floor.
The trading lesson: Let the daily chart set the stage and the hourly chart define the risk
The daily chart explained where the rally could run into trouble: the 50% midpoint near 0.8400.
The hourly chart then showed how the balance shifted as the price broke below swing areas and its moving averages.
Neither chart guarantees the next move. Together, however, they give traders a roadmap.
At 0.82636–0.82740, buyers have a defined area to defend. Sellers have a defined floor to break. Watch what the price does there, and then look for the next shove.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
