Former Biden Energy Adviser Hochstein Says There’s a ‘Secret War’ in Iran

I think the president separately is facing a big decision on Iran, and that is he's in a stalemate. Now I think You think this reporting is real or just a negotiating tactic that potentially he is weighing these plans to strike before the midterms? I had heard about this conversation happening internally about after the midterms versus before the midterms, and I I have... Honestly, I have no idea if they're thinking about in two weeks from now or in five weeks from now. Would make more sense to me to do it after the midterms than before. The midterms are largely about the weakness of the president that is a result of the war. Doubling down on the weakness seems to be a little bit suspect to me, so I I would I would pour some cold water on that. But, again, I don't know. This is a administration where I can believe anything. But after the midterms... Look. There's a strategy here that says with Iran, we have an embargo on Iran. They... Their economy is collapsing. Those are all true statements. Their economy is collapsing. Let's keep that in place for six months, eight months, nine months, and let that play out. It doesn't play out over one or two or three months. Right? This is a very strong, regime. That's a patient game. I think many in the region think that's the right way to do it. Don't get suckered into kinetic tit for tat. Keep that going. I... They can afford it. I don't think that the administration can afford it because you talked about crude climbing to 105. So the the screen says 105. The landed cost in Asia is 150. Mike Worth just said that two days ago, and we know that it's even a little bit higher than that. And the diesel price in The United States implies nearly $200 on a fifteen year average dollar spread. I don't know that he can wait six months with this because look what's happening to the bond market. Well, but in the meantime, how do you get that down if it's the risk of traveling via seas? It's the insurance costs for the shipper... Shipping containers. It's not necessarily how much oil is getting through either the Bab El Mandeb Strait or the Strait Of Ramuz. So we've talked about this around this table for a long time for this entire war. There's crude and there's products. Consumers don't buy crude. They buy products. Products are not coming out of The Middle East, which is part of the reason you have a lot more crude coming out because they're not refining, so there's more crude to export. And as you just said, at the end of the day, crude always comes out. Right? We had an embargo on Iraq, and then we heard about all the schemes. Crude is like water in physics. Right? It always comes out. The question becomes, at what price point is it worth it? Is the risk worth it? And I heard you on the show this morning saying that, Annmarie, that the attacks on tankers have increased. They actually have not increased. What's changed is the reporting. We have had for many weeks now tankers getting hit, people getting killed, and just zero reporting of it because we're keeping this. This is a secret war. I agree that there have been attacks this entire time, but I'm hearing from industry sources that they have escalated in the past week or two. I I think the shooting is going on on a regular basis for several weeks. They're hitting tankers, which is why the implied price for landed crude is very different than the screen price. Because at the end of the day, what's it worth to me? If crude prices go down, then nobody's... You'll have less oil going through the straight because the risk premium will not be worth it. And how do you bring these prices down? Letting red dye diesel, that's not gonna be, how it's gonna come down. They have a fundamental problem, and that's why I come back to your question. Does he go back to war? I think he has a couple of options. One is you go back and say, I can't wait for this anymore. I can't do the patience. I'm just gonna carpet bomb here, and I'm gonna take everything out and let the chips fall where they may, right, and flatten the place. The other option is to say, I will I will wait. I'll wait this out. And I think he's very uncomfortable with both options. They're not great. The war has not gone well.