From a very precarious position at $79,400, the Bitcoin bulls were able to stage a recovery and push the $BTC price back above $81K. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady at the FOMC meeting, but if Fed Chair Warsh is hawkish, and if PCE data comes in hot, this could derail further gains for Bitcoin.
$BTC bounces back: Resistance already met?
Source: TradingView
The short-term 4-hour chart reveals that the descending channel is still holding the price within. The $BTC price got all the way down to the bottom of the channel and looked precarious for a while. However, the bottom trendline of the channel and the horizontal support held strong and a bounce eventually occurred. This may have had something to do with an AI trade that appears to be back on , as some of the top AI companies began strong recoveries.
If the current rally can continue, the top of the descending channel could be reached, with a breakout a decent possibility. If, on the other hand, the current resistance level together with the 100 SMA prove too strong, the next dip could already be about to take place.
Uptrend is still unbroken
Source: TradingView
If we look at the positives in the daily chart we can start with a strong rally that is currently in its second corrective phase, with the uptrend unbroken. The present pattern formation of a descending channel is a bullish one. Even though it is guiding the $BTC price downward, this kind of pattern would normally break to the upside. If the price does reach the top of the channel, the breakout becomes more likely.
The Stochastic RSI indicator lines in this daily time frame are just rising from the bottom. On passing the 20.00 level they will start to signal upside price momentum.
If we then take the negatives, the descending pattern is no longer a bull flag , given that the price has fallen more than 50% of the flag pole. Then there is the 50-day SMA, which the $BTC price has just rejected from. Could this rejection have been a confirmation of a breakdown from this important moving average?
A rally is still on the cards
Source: TradingView
When we look at the macro picture of the weekly time frame all we are really doing is speculating on how far down the $BTC price is going to correct before it turns back up and continues the new bull market. Whether it has already turned, or whether it comes down to $75,600 or even $70K , is probably immaterial in the grand scheme of things. The more patient the ascent, the further it can probably go.
The weekly Stochastic RSI indicators are now in bearish territory. Unless there is a big turn around this week (which is entirely possible with the economic data releases ) the upside price momentum should be falling off from now on.
In the RSI at the bottom of the chart, the story is quite different. Having broken above a 2.5 year descending trendline, the indicator line is continuing to hold and bounce above this trend, signalling that a rally could certainly still be on the cards … as long as the economic data allows.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
