TL;DR
CryptoQuant says Bitcoin whale holdings reached 3.03 million BTC, the highest since November 2025, as monthly balance growth accelerated to its fastest pace since February.
The one-year change in whale balances has recovered toward zero after contracting since September 2025, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs returned to net buying.
CoinRabbit data shows borrowers with BTC-backed loans above $10 million increased USDT borrowing 83.3% in September, while retail borrowing fell 17.2%.
CryptoQuant says large Bitcoin holders have shifted from distribution back to accumulation as onchain indicators point to what the analytics firm describes as an early bull market. In its October 13 research , CryptoQuant said whale holdings excluding exchanges and mining pools reached 3.03 million BTC, their highest level since November 21, 2025. The key change is not simply larger balances, but a reversal from months of contraction toward accumulation running above its longer-term trend. The firm’s Bull Score Index stands at 80 after reaching 90 on September 26.
Whale Balances Turn Back Toward Accumulation
Whale balances have accelerated on a monthly basis at their fastest pace since February 11, 2026. The one-year change in whale holdings, which had remained negative since September 2025, has recovered toward zero and moved above its 365-day moving average. CryptoQuant interprets that crossover as evidence that large-holder accumulation is again expanding faster than trend. The data suggests whales have stopped being persistent net distributors and are rebuilding exposure after a prolonged contraction phase. The shift extends earlier signs of renewed whale accumulation that emerged while smaller holder cohorts were still reducing exposure.
Institutional flows are also improving. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recovered to about 2,300 BTC of net inflows for 2026 after reaching a year-to-date low near 83,000 BTC of net selling in early July, a swing exceeding 85,000 BTC in three months. In dollar terms, flows moved from roughly $5.1 billion of net outflows to $1.5 billion of net inflows. CryptoQuant treats the ETF reversal as additional evidence that larger pools of capital are returning, although current inflows remain well below 2025 levels. The development aligns with its earlier bull-cycle signals tied to improving demand and liquidity.
Lending data supplied by CoinRabbit adds another dimension. Borrowers with BTC-backed loans above $10 million increased total USDT borrowing 83.3% in September after a 9.2% contraction in July, while their average loan size rose 33.5%. Retail borrowers below $100,000 moved differently: total borrowing fell 17.2%, even as average loan size increased 43.1%. CryptoQuant argues that large holders are raising liquidity against Bitcoin rather than selling it, while retail participation remains comparatively weak. The firm nevertheless cautions that stretched trader profits could still produce pullbacks, echoing recent correction-risk signals despite its broader bullish regime assessment across its broader market regime analysis for Bitcoin.
