TL;DR:
Bitcoin was rejected again near $87,000, making that level the main battleground between buyers and sellers.
ETFs maintain solid institutional demand, but price momentum has weakened and BTC cannot break through the resistance.
Labor data reduced the odds of a rate hike in October, though Treasury yields continue to limit risk appetite.
Bitcoin has reached the $87,000 zone several times over the past few weeks, and on each attempt sellers have managed to halt its advance .
The most recent rejection pushed BTC back toward $85,500 after it reached approximately $86,600. The zone between $86,700 and $87,000 had already acted as resistance in previous attempts.
The question now is not only whether Bitcoin can break above $87,000. What matters is determining what is happening while it fails to do so : is the market consolidating gains ahead of another bullish attempt, or are buyers using each rally to distribute their positions?
$87,000 Has Become the Real Test of Uptober
Bitcoin entered October following a 12% rally during September, and US spot ETFs recorded $2.65 billion in inflows during that month, their second-best monthly result since October 2025. On October 1, ETFs also registered an additional $102.7 million in inflows.
Institutional demand, therefore, did not disappear.
The problem is that the price is showing a much weaker reaction than one would expect given that capital flow. Bitcoin requires more and more attempts to advance a few thousand dollars, and when it reaches the $87,000 zone, enough supply appears to quickly push it back toward $85,000.
That could be a sign of healthy consolidation. After a significant rally, a market may need time to absorb positions seeking to take profits before continuing to advance.
On-chain data offers precisely that argument. Glassnode identified a significant concentration of sell orders around $87,000 , while CryptoQuant noted that short-term traders’ unrealized profits reached 21-month highs , increasing the incentives to take gains.
If sellers are absorbing profits without triggering a breakdown of support levels, the rejection could end up being part of a consolidation structure .
The Problem Is That the Market Still Needs a Show of Strength
The opposing scenario also has its arguments.
Open interest denominated in BTC fell nearly 20% since August, and spot demand showed signs of cooling . CryptoQuant also observed that futures demand growth slowed considerably after the jump toward recent highs.
That means a significant portion of the momentum toward $87,000 has already played out. To break through that zone, Bitcoin will need new buyers , not just leveraged positions trying to anticipate a breakout.
The macroeconomic context offers an opportunity, but does not guarantee the outcome either.
The US September jobs report showed just 29,000 new jobs and pushed expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October from around 70% down to approximately 20% .
In theory, this should favor risk assets. However, the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 5.3% , which continues to offer a high-yield instrument compared to an asset that pays no interest.
That is why the upcoming Fed meeting minutes could be significant. If they confirm that employment weakness is shifting officials’ stance, Bitcoin could receive the catalyst needed to attack $87,000 again.
But if the minutes show persistent concern over inflation progress, yields could continue pressuring the market .
Distribution or Pause: Bitcoin’s Price Will Have to Decide
The most telling signal is that Bitcoin has still not lost its bullish structure , but has also failed to demonstrate that there is enough demand to break through resistance .
Even Strategy keeps buying. The company acquired another 334 BTC for approximately $28.7 million in the first days of October, and Michael Saylor posted his usual “ More orange than ever ” message, signaling the purchase.
That reinforces the idea that structural demand exists , but does not necessarily resolve the market’s immediate problem.
The real test of Uptober will therefore be Bitcoin’s ability to turn that demand into a sustained breakout . A convincing close above $87,000 would reopen the path toward $90,000 and demonstrate that sellers do not have enough strength to contain the advance.
Until that happens, every rejection should be treated as a warning .
Bitcoin still has arguments to keep climbing, but the market needs to prove that current strength represents accumulation and not simply an opportunity for holders to sell at higher prices.
