TL;DR
Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million and projects a compound annual return of 34.3%.
The asset manager estimates that the global store-of-value market will reach $110 trillion, while institutional investment assets will grow to $303 trillion.
Its most optimistic scenario puts Bitcoin at $3.67 million, while the bearish forecast places its price at $130,686.
Bitwise raised its 2036 Bitcoin price target from $1.3 million to $1.6 million , according to its annual report on long-term capital market assumptions. The asset manager estimates that BTC could deliver a compound annual return of 34.3% over the next decade.
This forecast is substantially higher than the expected returns for other asset classes. Average projections from JPMorgan, PGIM, BlackRock, and Vanguard put annual returns for U.S. equities at 6.7% , compared with 10.8% for private equity.
Matt Hougan , Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, explained that the firm maintained its assumptions about Bitcoin’s future market share across different markets. However, it raised its estimates for the size of those markets, increasing its price target.
Bitcoin Could Attract Trillions of Dollars From Institutional Investors
Bitwise estimates that the global store-of-value market will reach $110 trillion by 2036 , up from its previous forecast of $91 trillion . It also raised its estimate for the institutional investment market from $216 trillion to $303 trillion .
To reach its price target, the asset manager assumes that Bitcoin will capture 25% of the global store-of-value market and 1% of institutional investment assets over the next ten years.
According to Boston Consulting Group estimates cited in the report, institutional investors manage approximately $147 trillion in assets. Allocating between 1% and 5% to BTC could generate $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand.
Available supply is another factor in the firm’s model. Approximately 20.1 million BTC are currently in circulation, representing 95.7% of the maximum supply of 21 million, while annual issuance amounts to roughly $14 billion .
Three Price Scenarios and Lower Volatility
The report outlines different outcomes depending on the market share Bitcoin captures in the store-of-value market. Under the bearish scenario, with a 2.5% share, its price would reach $130,686 . In the bullish scenario, with a 50% share, it would climb to $3.67 million .
Bitwise also lowered its forecast for average volatility over the next decade from 32.9% to 27.8% , based on its expectation of greater institutional participation in the market.
The asset manager noted that Bitcoin experienced a decline of nearly 53% from its October 2025 high of $126,000 . The corrections following the 2013, 2017, and 2021 peaks reached 86%, 84%, and 77% , respectively.
Hougan said institutions continued increasing their exposure during the correction, although ETF purchases slowed and much of the demand for store-of-value assets flowed into gold .
