Prior month -68.3K
Details:
Employment change −4,700 vs +13,600 expected. Prior −68,000.
Unemployment rate 6.7% vs 6.5% expected. Prior 6.5%.
Employment rate 60.5% vs 60.6% in September.
Average hourly wages +2.2% year over year vs +2.3% in September, before seasonal adjustment.
Full time employment -18.1K vs -35.4K last month
Part Time employment 13.4K v -32.9k last month
October components compared with September
Youth unemployment 13.7% vs 13.0%.
Unemployment among people aged 55 and older 5.5% vs 5.3%.
Educational services employment +15,000 vs −35,000.
Alberta employment −24,000 vs +23,000.
British Columbia employment +12,000 vs −20,000.
Canada’s October jobs report came in weaker than expected on both headline measures. Statistics Canada reported that employment was little changed, down 4,700 after declines of 68,000 in September and 42,000 in August. The unemployment rate rose to 6.7% as 33,000 more people looked for work.
The private sector was the soft spot. Private-sector employment fell 53,000, its first decline since February, while public-sector employment rose 50,000. Wholesale and retail trade lost 29,000 jobs, while construction added 16,000 and educational services added 15,000.
Here is the graphic of where the jobs were gained and lossed:
Quick analysis
The private-sector decline and slower wage growth give the Bank of Canada a reason to be cautious about another hike after it raised its policy rate to 2.50% in October. The offset is energy-driven inflation. The Bank raised rates because it was concerned that higher energy costs would spread to other prices. On its own, the jobs miss would normally weigh on the Canadian dollar and short-term Canadian yields, putting upward pressure on USDCAD.
The USDCAD moves higher
The combination of the stronger US jobs report and the Canada weaker look, has pushed the USDCAD to a new high for the day and going back to October 20. The price has also moved above a swing area target between 1.4068 to 1.40828 (inclusive of the borken 38.2%). The next target? 1.4110.
What this report measures
Statistics Canada’s monthly Labour Force Survey estimates how many people are employed and what share of the labour force is unemployed. The headline employment and unemployment figures are seasonally adjusted to make month-to-month comparisons easier. Traders watch the report for signs of labour-market slack and wage pressure that could influence Bank of Canada policy.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.
