Gold continues to find itself on the defensive in the past few weeks, as the precious metal is unable to gather much reprieve from both a fundamental and technical perspective.
On the former, the bond market continues to play a key role. With 10-year Treasury yields hovering above 5%, the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset like gold is rather difficult to ignore. And that angle currently outweighs the fact that gold has historically been a solid hedge against geopolitical and inflation risks.
Meanwhile, the technicals are also reflecting that struggle quite clearly. Looking at the 4-hour chart, sellers have repeatedly defended the $4,200-20 region since the start of October. The 100-period moving average (red line) has also consistently capped recovery attempts, with the latest rejection leaving gold hovering around $4,114 today.
The daily chart also tells a similar story with gold price action continue to hold below the key daily moving averages, keeping sellers in control:
The $4,200-20 region is the immediate hurdle to any upside push, while the $4,100-17 area is now the key support zone to watch.
In other words, we are seeing a consolidation phase for gold price and one that has clear technical levels defining it. That leaves us with two possible scenarios.
For the bulls, defending the $4,100-17 region is the first priority. But in looking to the upside, they need to muster a convincing break above $4,200-20 first. Only then can the bulls start taking aim at the 100-day moving average at around $4,232 currently before looking to $4,300 next. As for catalysts, easing Treasury yields would certainly help alongside continued central bank demand for the precious metal in the bigger picture.
For the bears, a firm break below $4,100 would expose the $4,000 psychological mark and potentially the July low near $3,960 as the next targets. As for catalysts, the very fact that 10-year Treasury yields continue to keep above 5% is a strong reason to keep broader markets on edge and put gold in a tight spot.
But for now though, the predicament is relatively straightforward. Gold price remains caught between $4,100-17 and $4,200-20 with there being neither enough conviction from safety hedge to offset the pressure from higher borrowing costs; vice versa.
So until something gives way, it’s a bit of a waiting game. Buyers have the $4,100-17 region to defend, while sellers are keeping a firm grip on the $4,200-20 area. But with Treasury yields still elevated, I would argue that the burden remains on gold bulls to prove they can turn things around.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.
