TLDR:
Bitcoin fell 72% in 2010, 65% in 2014, 52% in 2018, and 27% in 2022 around US midterm elections.
Three of the last four midterm years closed the fourth quarter negative; only 2010 gained 391%.
Ali Charts marks $73,000, near the short-term holder cost basis, as the key downside level.
The analyst says elections may not cause the declines, as market cycles and liquidity also mattered.
Bitcoin midterm elections have preceded steep price drops in each of the last four US cycles, according to market analyst Ali Charts. The next vote takes place on November 3, less than two weeks away. Past data shows Bitcoin declines between 27% and 72% around these events, based on figures shared on X. The analyst also pointed to a key support level that traders may track if selling pressure builds after the election results.
Bitcoin Midterm Elections Show Four Straight Declines
Prominent analyst Ali Charts shared the data in a post on X. The post framed the Bitcoin midterm elections trend as a historical pattern that investors may be overlooking.
The analyst listed the drops seen around each midterm election since 2010. Bitcoin fell 72% in 2010 and 65% in 2014. The decline reached 52% in 2018.
https://t.co/sT0b0k3eDK
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 23, 2026
The most recent case came in 2022, when Bitcoin dropped 27%. As a result, all four cycles ended in a decline. The analyst noted that correlation does not equal causation.
Market cycles, liquidity, and investor sentiment also shaped those moves. Even so, Ali Charts said the consistency of the pattern deserves attention.
Fourth-quarter returns in midterm years show a similar trend. Bitcoin gained 391% in the final quarter of 2010. However, it lost 16.70% in 2014 and 42.16% in 2018. The asset then fell 14.75% in 2022. These numbers add a second data point to the price drops cited earlier.
Three of the last four midterm election years closed the fourth quarter in negative territory. The only exception was 2010, when Bitcoin was still in its early stage.
Ali Charts asked whether the fourth quarter of 2026 could follow the same path. The analyst presented this as a reason to monitor risk before the vote.
$73,000 Emerges as Key Support Level
Ali Charts identified $73,000 as the level to watch if selling pressure rises after November 3. That price roughly matches the short-term holder cost basis.
The metric tracks the average purchase price of coins held by recent buyers. Ali Charts described it as an important indicator of market sentiment.
This metric reflects how recent investors position themselves in the market. During established bull markets, Bitcoin has frequently found support near it after sharp corrections. Therefore, a pullback toward $73,000 could test whether buyers still defend the broader uptrend.
A sustained recovery from that zone would strengthen the bullish case, according to the analyst. Ali Charts also expects the November 3 vote to coincide with a volatile period for Bitcoin. Still, the analyst said elections may not cause the declines.
If Bitcoin falls toward $73,000, the analyst will watch for seller exhaustion turning into renewed demand. Only then would a long position come under consideration.
The analyst added that downside risk deserves close attention during the Bitcoin midterm elections period.
The post Could Q4 Turn Painful for Bitcoin? Midterm Elections History Points to Downside Risk appeared first on Blockonomi .
