Gold got once again hit by another jump in oil prices, with WTI reaching
a new weekly high yesterday.
The Houthis are intensifying attacks on Saudi Arabia, leading to renewed
supply disruption risks. The negotiations between the US and Iran remain at a
stalemate, and there isn’t any energy ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine as
Russia reportedly struck an oil facility in western Ukraine.
The Middle East crisis and lack of some relief from the Russian front,
has been keeping oil prices supported and limiting the upside in gold due to
persistent inflationary pressures and hawkish expectations.
Today, all eyes will be on the US CPI report. The focus will be mainly
on the core m/m measure as Fed members have been focusing on the monthly pace
of core inflation to determine how many rate hikes will be needed and how
quickly they should tighten policy.
The probabilities for a
rate hike in October currently sit around 21% because traders have been waiting
for the CPI data to completely rule out a hike at the upcoming meeting despite
the pushback from Fed members.
I feel like an uptick
to 0.3% might not be enough for the market to fully expect a hike in October,
but a jump to 0.4% should do it. In such a case, we will likely see a selloff
in gold on a hawkish repricing. An in-line or even lower than expected figure,
on the other hand, could lead to a short-term relief rally in the precious
metal.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold (CFD contract) couldn’t reach
the downward trendline, as it started to roll over earlier due to another jump
in oil prices. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline, with
a defined risk above it, to keep targeting a drop into the 3,885 level. The
buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile
in for a rally into the 4,700 level next, with the 4,500 level as the first
target.
GOLD
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that as soon as the price fell back below the upward trendline, the bearish
momentum accelerated as the sellers piled in for a move into new lows. The
4,110 level could still act as support. If the price gets there, we can expect
the buyers to step in, with a defined risk below it, to position for a rally into
the 4,228 resistance. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the
price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the 3,885 level next.
GOLD
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, we
have a minor downward trendline that could act as resistance in case we get a
pullback. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline, with a defined risk
above it, to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will
look for a break to extend the pullback into the 4,228 resistance.
From a risk management perspective,
though, it would be better to wait for the US CPI as surprises could trigger
big moves and make technical levels useless. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Today we have the US CPI
report. Tomorrow, we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
