Qatar says US-Iran talks alive as Trump meets Qatari PM, oil swings on mixed signals
WSJ: Japan spent a record $50 billion in one day to defend the yen, data confirms
China extends suspension of 24% tariffs on US goods, keeps 10% levy ahead of APEC
Goldman’s AI memory basket plunges 51% from peak, JPMorgan sees earnings buffer for now
China October 2026 CPI +0.7% y/y (expected +0.8%, prior +0.9%)
ICYMI: Goldman cuts gold forecasts to $4,150 for 2026, $4,800 for 2027 as hawkish Fed bites
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Markets price three more BoE hikes, but analysts see a shallower path after move to 4%
PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 6.7188 (vs. estimate at 6.6799)
Trump eyes Xi, Putin meeting at APEC on Iran war, says he’d ‘certainly take’ Huang
Recap – BOJ’s Ueda sees inflation near 2% but flags upside risks as energy costs bite
China steps up market stabilisation push: three short-term priorities for equities
China October inflation preview: CPI seen near 0.8%, PPI above 5%
Blumenthal sets Jan 4 deadline for Binance, Tether and Trump crypto firms as power shifts
Weekend: Houthis hit Riyadh’s Aramco Tower and target oil storage as Saudi supply risk grows
RBA’s Hunter warns AI could trigger sharp asset repricing as boom adds to inflation
Is NVDA stock a buy or sell? Spy alert?
Rubio says Iran talks not productive as Tehran’s demands are unacceptable
Bitcoin continues to trade heavily, under $74,600, risk mood turns wary
NZD firms in early Asia as New Zealand faces weeks of political limbo
Suspected Iranian drone strike halts Iraq gas field, cuts two thirds of Kurdistan power
Weekend: Trump says new Iran strikes ‘highly unlikely’ five times (but three carriers stay ready)
Three risks for Nvidia shares after Huang admits affair with suspected Chinese spy
WTI oil price outlook: After a 17.5% slide, can buyers reclaim $92.53?
Gold analysis: Buyers keep defending $4,040. Is $4,140 the next target?
Summary:
Equities:
The Nikkei 225 surged around 3.3% to above 59,300, the Topix rose close to 3.4% and the Kospi gained about 1.4%.
Memory chipmakers rebounded, with SK Hynix up around 4.6% and Samsung up about 2.4%, despite Goldman’s AI memory basket being down 51% from its June peak.
China’s rollover of its 24% tariff suspension on US goods added a risk-positive backdropahead of APEC.
Nvidia: the stock faces its first test at tonight’s US open after CEO Jensen Huang admitted a relationship with a suspected Chinese intelligence asset. Nvidia’s board has opened an independent probe.
Oil:
Crude fell on Trump’s “highly unlikely” strikes comments, then recovered to flat after Rubio said Iran talks are not productive.
Strikes on Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field and Riyadh’s Aramco Tower, plus Task Force Iron Gate, keep escalation risk alive. Qatar says a deal is still being pursued.
China: PPI rose 5.7% y/y, its biggest increase since 2022, while CPI slowed to 0.7% and core eased to 0.8%.
FX:
USD/JPY held near 158.30 as data confirmed Japan’s record $50 billion one-day intervention in July.
The kiwi rose about 0.7% with New Zealand’s election still too close to call.
Gold and bitcoin: gold rose around 1.3% to near $4,130 despite Goldman cutting its forecasts. Bitcoin slipped below $75,000.
Equities: Asia buys the dip
Asian equities rallied strongly on Monday, brushing aside the weekend’s Nvidia controversy and a run of Middle East escalation headlines. Japan led the way, with the Nikkei 225 surging around 3.3% to above 59,300 and the broader Topix up close to 3.4%. South Korea’s Kospi gained around 1.4% and the Kosdaq nearly 2%. Gains in China and Hong Kong were more modest, with the Shanghai Composite up about 0.5% and the Hang Seng edging higher. US equity index futures also firmed, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 contracts both up around 0.5%.
The standout was the rebound in memory chipmakers. SK Hynix jumped around 4.6% and Samsung Electronics gained about 2.4%, a sharp bounce for a group that has borne the brunt of the recent AI selloff. A Goldman Sachs basket of AI memory stocks has fallen 51% from its June peak, its deepest drawdown since ChatGPT launched, according to Bloomberg. JPMorgan has argued the market is already pricing a memory downcycle as early as the first half of 2027, while near-term earnings remain cushioned by long-term supply deals and customer prepayments. Monday’s buying suggests some investors are treating the slump as overdone.
China’s decision to keep suspending a 24% additional tariff on US goods, while maintaining a 10% levy from November 10, added a risk-positive backdrop. The original one-year pause was due to lapse this week. The rollover removes the risk of a tariff snapback ahead of next week’s APEC summit in China, where President Donald Trump expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Nvidia and AI: the real test comes tonight
Asia’s resilience sets up a sharper test when Wall Street opens. Nvidia chief executive Jensen Huang admitted in a message to staff to a romantic relationship with Alice Huang, a Megaspeed executive whom US officials reportedly believe was recruited by Chinese intelligence. Nvidia’s board has opened an independent investigation, saying it has no reason to believe national security or company secrets were compromised, and Huang remains chief executive. Tonight’s session is the first chance for the shares to fully trade on the admission.
Trump described Huang as an honourable person who had done an amazing job for the country. He said he had not discussed the allegations with him, and that he would certainly take him on next week’s Asia trip, though he added that you never know what is going on. Whether Huang travels will be read as a signal of his standing on chip policy.
The broader questions over AI have not gone away. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that some asset prices could face sharp repricing, or even disorderly adjustments, if returns on AI investment disappoint, noting limited evidence so far that AI has lifted productivity. Her comments add a central bank voice to concerns over the scale of AI spending and the off-balance-sheet commitments being used to fund it.
Oil: crosscurrents leave crude flat
Crude spent the session caught between diplomacy and escalation. Prices fell at the open after Trump told CNN it was highly unlikely the US would need to resume strikes on Iran, provided talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme and reopening the Strait of Hormuz made progress. Brent dipped to around $96.70 and WTI briefly slipped below $90.
The selling did not last. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said talks with Iran were not productive because Tehran’s demands were simply unacceptable, and that a diplomatic solution is sometimes not possible. Reports of continued strikes in the Strait of Hormuz also limited the downside. Brent recovered to around $98, roughly unchanged, while WTI edged up to around $91.
Weekend events underline the escalation risk. A suspected Iranian drone strike halted output at Iraq’s Khor Mor gas field, knocking out nearly 2.8 gigawatts of the Kurdistan region’s power, in what appears to be a significant escalation. Yemen’s Houthi movement struck the Aramco Tower in Riyadh and claimed attacks on Aramco oil storage, bringing the world’s largest crude exporter further into the firing line. Washington is also tightening the squeeze, with US Central Command launching Task Force Iron Gate to target Iran’s economy.
Diplomacy has not been abandoned. Qatar, which is mediating, denied reports that talks had failed and said both sides are still working toward a deal. Iran has reportedly sent a conditional nuclear proposal through Qatar that includes demands for sanctions relief. Trump meets the Qatari prime minister at 12:00 US Eastern, 17:00 GMT, to discuss a new ceasefire and resuming nuclear negotiations, Axios reported, making the meeting the next key marker for crude.
China: factory prices surge, consumers lag
China’s October inflation data showed the gap between producer and consumer prices widening. The producer price index rose 5.7% from a year earlier, its biggest increase since 2022 and well above the 5.3% forecast, as energy costs fed through. Consumer prices rose just 0.7%, below the 0.8% expected, and core inflation eased to 0.8% from 1%. The mix points to manufacturers absorbing cost increases amid weak domestic demand, and to squeezed industrial margins.
Beijing is also moving to shore up its stock market. A recent State Council meeting called for stronger capital market stabilisation mechanisms, Securities Times reported, as the focus shifts to making existing support measures deliver.
FX: yen intervention data, kiwi firms on election
The yen was little changed, with USD/JPY around 158.30. Ministry of Finance data confirmed Japan spent a record $50 billion in a single day on July 30 to support the currency, part of roughly $97 billion across July and August that included the first joint intervention with the US since 1998. The figures underline Tokyo’s willingness to act, but the yen remains weak as expectations of further Federal Reserve hikes keep the US-Japan rate gap wide. Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said on Friday he sees some upside risks to inflation as energy costs feed through to consumer prices.
The New Zealand dollar was among the stronger performers, up around 0.7% to near 0.5585, after a knife-edge election left Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition with a paper-thin majority. Nearly 400,000 special votes are still to be counted, with final results due on November 27. The Australian dollar gained about 0.3% to around 0.6890, helped by the firmer risk tone and the China tariff news. EUR/USD edged up to around 1.1150.
Gold firms, bitcoin lags
Gold rose around 1.3% to near $4,130 an ounce, rebounding from earlier weakness even as crude recovered. Gains face a headwind from expectations of a December Fed hike, with traders pricing around an 80% chance after strong US payrolls. Goldman Sachs has cut its gold forecasts to $4,150 for end-2026 and $4,800 for end-2027, citing the hawkish Fed, though it remains constructive on the longer-term outlook thanks to heavy central bank buying.
Bitcoin was the outlier, slipping around 1.3% to just below $75,000 after touching a low near $74,500, lagging the rebound in equities.
Ahead
Attention now turns to the US session and Nvidia’s first trade since Huang’s admission, followed by Trump’s meeting with the Qatari prime minister. Tuesday brings US October CPI, a key input for December Fed hike expectations, and China’s October trade data. Next week’s APEC summit looms as the next major test for both US-China relations and Iran diplomacy.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.
