Gold has come under renewed pressure yesterday after oil prices surged
to new weekly highs. Overall, the situation in the Middle East hasn’t changed
much as the Houthis continue to attack Saudi Arabia, while the US-Iran negotiations
remain at a stalemate.
This is going to continue to cap the upside in gold unless the Fed turns
more dovish than market’s expectations, leading to a fall in real yields.
Looking ahead, the focus will remain on US-Iran developments, but we
also have the US CPI report tomorrow as a key near-term catalyst.
A hotter than expected core reading could raise the probabilities for a
Fed rate hike in October, putting downward pressure on gold. A soft report, on
the other hand, will likely ease rate hike concerns further and provide another
boost to the precious metal.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME
On the daily chart, we can
see that gold (CFD contract) is approaching
the downward trendline. The sellers will likely lean on the trendline, with a
defined risk above it, to position for a drop into the 3,885 level. The buyers,
on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a
rally into the 4,700 level next, with the 4,500 level as the first target.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 4 hour chart, it
looks like we got a fakeout yesterday as the price fell below the upward trendline
and then rose back above it. From a risk management perspective, the sellers
will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline, with a
defined risk above the 4,228 level, to target a drop into the 3,885 level. The
buyers, on the other hand, will need a break above the trendline and the 4,228
level to open the door for a rally into the 4,400 level next.
GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1
HOUR TIMEFRAME
On the 1 hour chart, there’s
not much we can add here as the sellers will be better off waiting for the
price to come into the trendline, while the buyers will need a break. The red
lines define the average daily range for today.
UPCOMING CATALYSTS
Tomorrow we have the US CPI
report. On Thursday, we get the US PPI, the US Retail Sales and the latest US
Jobless Claims figures.
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.
