Santiment addressed the recent drop in Bitcoin and altcoins in its market review published today. The firm’s on-chain data shows that large investors keep accumulating, but key indicators suggest conditions for a strong rally are not yet in place.
Bitcoin and altcoins slip as risk appetite weakens
Bitcoin fell to about $81,500 and lost nearly 2% on a weekly basis. Ethereum dropped 2.2% over the same period. The total crypto market value fell 1.5%, while trading volume declined by roughly 7%. Santiment said inflation data, especially from the US, and uncertainty around Fed policy hurt risk appetite. Bitcoin tested below $80,000 before a limited recovery, but market uncertainty remained.
The drop was not limited to crypto. Since September 22, Bitcoin has lost about 6.5%, while gold fell between 4% and 5%. The S&P 500 was down only around 0.3%.
Whale buying is not enough on its own
Santiment found that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC added 85,916 BTC since September 18. That is roughly four weeks of accumulation despite lower prices. Large holders are still increasing positions.
Still, small investors are also buying, and that does not create an ideal setup for a quick recovery. Santiment said a drop in wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC may show weakening optimism among retail buyers. Historically, price increases have been more likely when large investors accumulate while small investors pull back. If whales keep holding and small buyers slow down, Bitcoin could have a better chance of returning to $85,000 to $90,000.
On-chain metrics are mixed. Bitcoin’s 30-day MVRV is about minus 2.3%, meaning recent buyers are carrying average unrealized losses. Negative MVRV can mark areas where buying opportunities start to appear, but Santiment said current levels do not yet signal a strong opportunity. The 365-day MVRV is 0.56%, close to the average cost for long-term holders. RSI is around 46.5, which points to no major overbought or oversold condition. Binance funding rates are mostly stable.
Altcoin activity rises, but price is not guaranteed
Santiment also looked at altcoins. Quant stood out with activity up 234% over 30 days and 219% over 90 days. Staked Ethereum, Starknet, Wrapped Bitcoin, Gnosis, LayerZero, Ether.fi, Basic Attention Token, Bitcoin Cash, and Curve were also noted. Top 100 accumulation in Virtuals Protocol reached a high level recently. Santiment warned that more on-chain activity does not always mean higher prices. It can signal recovery, but it can also come before selling pressure.
Panic is not here yet
Social media data showed bearish expectations outpaced bullish ones about eight days ago, followed by a recovery. Positive and negative comments are now closer to balanced. Santiment said panic has not fully set in. Whale accumulation, negative short-term MVRV, and pessimism are positive signals for a possible rebound. But retail buying, stable funding rates, and macro uncertainty mean a strong rally is not certain. This is not investment advice.
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