Traders on Polymarket are betting that President Donald Trump will be impeached before his term ends, as his party absorbs heavy losses in the midterm elections.
Trump impeachment odds are rising
The odds of Trump being impeached have jumped to a record high as Democrats flipped both the House of Representatives and the Senate . Democratic candidates won Senate races in Texas, Maine, South Carolina, Iowa, and Ohio.
Polymarket now puts the probability of impeachment at 85%, suggesting that most participants expect it to happen.
Analysts that Invezz talked to believe that Trump will be impeached and removed before his term ends, citing several major actions he has taken in his presidency.
One of them is corruption, which voters identified as a major issue before the midterm elections. For example, Trump launched World Liberty Financial, a large crypto project that runs USD1 stablecoin. Binance, the biggest crypto exchange in the world, was a major partner in the project.
After the election, a fund from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) invested in Binance using the USD1 stablecoin. Since then, Binance has held those funds in USD1, allowing the Trump family to make millions of dollars in interest. As a reward, Trump pardoned Changpeng Zhao, Binance’s founder.
A similar thing happened with Justin Sun, the Chinese billionaire who invested in World Liberty Finance. In exchange, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) ended its investigation against Sun and Tron.
Trump is also expected to face investigation over activity at Trump Media, the company behind Truth Social. The company launched a service that lets individuals and hedge funds pay $100,000 a month for early access to his posts on the platform. Several ethics analysts argue that the service may violate the law and could facilitate insider trading.
There are other possible crimes that could cost Trump his job. For example, he has directed the Justice Department to go after his perceived enemies, including the media. He has also launched illegal military campaigns, including those that killed tens of people on drug smuggling charges.
Democrats will need to convince Republicans to support his impeachment
Still, the bar for removing Trump from office is high. In the House of Representatives, impeachment should be fairly straightforward, since Democrats will hold the majority and only a simple majority is needed. The House has already impeached him twice in the past.
The challenge, however, will be in the Senate, where Democrats would need to persuade a significant number of Republicans to join them. In the January 6 impeachment, ten House Republicans voted to impeach Trump, and seven Republican senators later voted to convict him.
With Trump’s popularity falling, more Republicans may join Democrats this time, particularly if Democrats build a persuasive case. A similar shift happened during Watergate, when Republican support for Nixon collapsed and many signaled they would vote to remove him.
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