Three Things to Know
Zcash, this year’s standout rally, is cracking on its hourly charts and traders see it as an early warning for the majors.
Ether has held up better than bitcoin this week, yet it still trades below both of its key moving averages.
The ceiling that matters most sits near $2,320, where resistance and the 200-day average stack together.
Zcash is showing the first signs of fatigue after a 10-month run. One well-followed trader said the weakness could hint at where the majors head next.
Ether sits in an awkward spot. It has outlasted bitcoin through the latest pullback, but sellers still steer its trend and support below looks thin. Traders now want to know whether ether can hold steady if profit-taking spreads.
Zcash Cracks First and Traders Watch the Majors
Zcash has rallied for roughly 10 months and sits about 147% higher year to date, far ahead of bitcoin and ether. The privacy coin is now showing strain on its hourly charts. It slipped below its short-term moving averages and traded near $1,263 on Nov 7.
The first floor sits near $1,249. A break there could expose $1,131. Buyers would need to reclaim $1,354, then $1,405, to show they are still defending the rally.
Trader Ansem (@blknoiz06) said ZEC’s lower-timeframe weakness may preview the next move for the majors. He noted that the coin is where most unrealized profit is hiding. Traders sitting on large gains tend to sell there first.
A ZEC breakdown on its own would prove little. The network’s NU7 upgrade went live this week and could add coin-specific swings. The warning grows louder if bitcoin and ether break key levels at the same time.
Bitcoin looks the more fragile of the two. It traded near $76,000 on Nov 7 with a daily RSI around 38.5, a reading that shows sellers in control. A drop below $74,845 could open a slide toward $73,253.
ETH Trades Beneath Both Averages It Needs Back
Ethereum (ETH) daily price with the nearest support (green) and resistance (red). Source: TradingView
Ether trades near $2,230, below both of the moving averages that traders use to judge its trend. A moving average smooths out daily swings by tracking the mean price over a set number of days. When price sits under one, that average tends to act as a ceiling on rallies.
The 50-day average sits near $2,380, and the 200-day sits near $2,310. On that basis, the broader structure is still bearish.
The past month shows how the bias formed. Ether lost about 10% over 30 days, a steady slide that pushed it under both lines. Sellers had the upper hand for most of that stretch.
This week looks calmer. ETH is down about 1% over seven days and roughly flat over the last 24 hours. That is a better showing than bitcoin’s, which is still testing its own floor.
A flat week means selling has paused, and buyers have yet to take charge.
The first test sits overhead at the 200-day average. It is the closer of the two lines, about 4% above the current price. A close back above it would be the first sign of a turn.
Higher still sits the 50-day line. Bulls would need to clear both before the chart looks constructive again.
Sellers Still Lead Though Momentum Stops Bleeding
RSI, a 0 to 100 gauge of momentum, reads about 39 on ether’s daily chart. That sits in weak territory but well above the oversold zone near 30. Sellers have the edge, yet they are not pressing hard enough to trigger a washout.
The reading is a shade firmer than bitcoin’s.
MACD offers a small bright spot. The momentum indicator has crossed above its signal line, a shift that often shows downside pressure is easing. In plain terms, the selling has lost some force.
The trend-strength gauge tempers that signal. It shows a trend taking shape, and sellers are the ones steering it. That points to a pause in the decline rather than a turn higher.
A Wide Gap Separates $2,320 From the Floor Below
Resistance sits near $2,320 on the daily chart, just above the 200-day average. The two levels stack together, so sellers have a thick ceiling to defend. Clearing that zone would bring the next hurdle into view near $2,400.
That second level lines up closely with the 50-day average. Clearing it would hand buyers back both trend lines at once. Until then, every bounce runs into supply.
The floor looks very different. The nearest support sits far lower, in a band between $1,850 and $1,860.
Ether has no clear cushion between its current price and that band. A rejection under resistance would leave plenty of open room below.
That gap matters if the weakness in ZEC and bitcoin spreads.
What Flips the Next Three Days
Three outcomes look possible over the next few days, and two of them hinge on the same ceiling.
Bullish: A daily close above $2,320 would reclaim the 200-day average and open a run toward $2,400. A slide back under $2,230 would cancel the setup.
Bearish: A rejection at resistance would point toward the $1,850 band. The risk grows if ZEC and bitcoin lose their own supports. That would confirm the spreading weakness ZEC hinted at. A reclaim of $2,400 would void this view.
Relative Strength Is Not a Bullish Signal Yet
Ether’s steadier week counts for something, but that edge does not change the trend. Sellers keep control until ETH climbs back above both moving averages.
Heavy profit-taking in Zcash could spread across the market. Thin support below would give ether little to catch a fast drop.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.
