XRP has lost roughly 16% from its late-September high, and the rebound from last week’s sell-off has not repaired a chart that suddenly looks much more fragile.
The token was trading around $1.40 on Monday after recovering from an October 8 low near $1.32.
That still leaves XRP below the $1.60-$1.70 resistance zone that capped September’s advance and below support levels surrendered during the latest decline.
XRP’s September breakout failed where bulls needed it most
XRP climbed as high as roughly $1.66 in late September, testing a resistance cluster around $1.60-$1.70 that traders had viewed as the neckline of a possible bullish pattern. A clean break could have opened the way towards $1.80-$2.00.
Instead, sellers rejected the move. XRP subsequently lost $1.50 and $1.45 before breaking below $1.40 during last week’s sell-off.
By October 8, the token had fallen to $1.32 and retraced most of the advance from its August lows.
Investing.com analyst Itai Smidt said XRP had “failed at the neckline of a bullish pattern” and then lost the level needed to keep that structure intact.
A failed breakout followed by former support turning into resistance changes what traders need to see before trusting the next rally.
Rebound to $1.40 has not put bulls back in control
The recovery from $1.32 looks constructive, but momentum remains weak.
FXStreet analyst John Isige wrote on October 9 that XRP’s “path of least resistance remains downward” unless buyers secure a convincing daily close above the pivotal $1.40 area. He also pointed to bearish RSI readings and a MACD sell signal.
The distinction matters, as trading above $1.40 intraday is not the same as repairing the broader trend.
XRP needs to hold that level, push back through roughly $1.43-$1.48 and eventually break the sequence of lower highs formed since September.
Until then, rebounds risk being treated as relief rallies inside a weakening structure rather than evidence that the correction has ended.
$1.37 may decide whether patient holders finally start selling
The strongest counterargument is that investors have not capitulated.
BeInCrypto analyst Ananda Banerjee reported that exchange outflows remained steady through the decline, while ETF buyers continued adding despite sitting on losses.
Glassnode data cited by BeInCrypto showed XRP’s 30-day exchange net position change at about negative 1.58 billion tokens on October 8.
US spot XRP ETFs also kept attracting capital . Franklin’s XRPZ took in $8.17 million on October 8 even as XRP briefly touched $1.32.
Banerjee identified $1.37 as the key dividing line, warning that a daily close below it, followed by a break of $1.30, could turn patient holders into sellers and expose $1.20.
There is also a new catalyst, as Evernorth completed its SPAC merger on October 9 and is expected to begin Nasdaq trading on Monday under the ticker XRPN, holding about 473 million XRP.
That listing gives investors another public-market route to XRP exposure, but it does not automatically create fresh token buying.
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