Australia’s 15-year high rate likely to ‘hold from here’: Goldman Sachs

Well, Sheree, we we think the the balance of risk is that it is one and done. Look, it was a unanimous vote yesterday for sure. Further tightening is definitely possible and we'll be looking very closely at the inflation report which is coming out in in just an hour's time, but our base case is that they're they're on hold from here. Um and I think in support of that I'd observe that um many of the comments in the press conference yesterday in our view weren't especially hawkish. So, you know, the the governor Bullock was repeatedly stressed that the RBA had done four rate hikes and that there were long lags to see the full effect. Governor Bullock, you know, characterized financial conditions as quite restrictive or as restrictive and when asked about whether further tightening was required, she was quite equivocal about that, which is a different stance to what, you know, the more hawkish language that we saw following the August statement. So, um look, we we can't say for sure, but we do think the RBA is probably done enough. I mean, Sheree, you highlighted one of the key reasons why we are seeing financial conditions have an impact on interest rate sensitive parts of the economy like the housing market um and uh you know, our financial conditions index is tightening, growth is slowing. Uh so we think there's probably enough done. The oil price effect we think is um you know, a supply side shock that won't generate persistent inflation. We're forecasting oil prices to fall and we're not seeing a lot of inflation coming from uh the labor market in our view. So, now that further tightening is definitely possible, CPIs in focus for sure today and uh the end of next month, but we think the most likely scenario is that they're now on hold for an extended period.