Bolsonaro Takes Surprise Brazil Election Lead Over Lula

Markets clearly cheering the shift to the rights. Are markets assuming lower interest rates? What are they assuming under a potential Bolsonaro presidency? It's a lot lot of assumptions at this point because much like Lula Bolsonaro hasn't really outlined his plan for the economy, the expectation is that he will likely follow the path that his father, started when, you know, Jair Bolsonaro was president just a few years ago, which is a smaller state selling off, government assets, relying more on the private sector, labor reform perhaps, fiscal reform. Fiscal reform really is the main, concern for markets. Brazil has been spending more than it can for years and years. The deficit is is high, and interest rates are very high. As you mentioned, we are at 13.75 for interest rates and have been stuck in the double digits for a very long time. And that is obviously creating a lot of problems for companies trying to refinance debt, for families, just making credit too expensive. So the hope is that he will come in and with, a more moderate spending plan, let's say, will finally be able to to, fall and improve the economy overall. You know, the leftist movement had become the dominant political force under Lula. How had the economy fared? I had assumed that certain social situations had got better. Youth unemployment, for example, albeit at 10% was was down a lot. It is an interesting dynamic because if you just look at the macro indicators, the economy is not doing that poorly. Right? Unemployment is at a record low. Country's growing steadily, not amazingly, but it is growing. But the perception that people have about... Especially their consumer, you know, consumer, power, how much they can spend has really fallen under Lula. People just don't perceive that their lives are better, and that could be because they are indebted, which is what Lula is trying to fix now. He has released... He has launched a few programs to try to get people to renegotiate the debt. There's also a perception that a lot of money is going toward betting markets, which he's also trying to clamp down on. And just the perception that things are much more expensive than they used to be, and money is not... Just not going that far. You need to work three, four jobs to make ends meet. And I think that's really what happened with Lula yesterday and what he said, you know, we need to kinda shift priorities and kind of see what we do in the next three weeks ahead of the of the runoff on October 25.