Daily Trader: How CPI & PPI Move Fed, Crude’s Lasting Rally #shorts

We got a lot of things that'll move move the markets this week. We're going to talk about banks and those earnings. We'll recap them tomorrow. But really starting the week, I think the most important thing that we're going to look at is inflation data. And Wednesday, we'll get inflation data from CPI, our second look at inflation of the month. Remember, we got wages data within non-farm payrolls that was muted at 3% year-over-year. The expectations now for CPI month overmonth 06 on headline that's a bit high probably dominated by energy but we'll check year-over-year from 3.4 to 3.6% 6%. Again, we'll check energy prices. Core, it's a different story. Up 0.2, that would be a nice modest number for core CPI month overmonth. 2.5% year-over-year. That would be a tenth higher, but still low historically to the last 12 to 18 months. We'll certainly check that. Then we'll get PPI. PPI will be less of a story, but it will move the markets. Now, the next one that I'm looking at is retail sales data. I think retail sales has a chance to move the markets this week. Why? Because remember, if you watch this YouTube short, we did the BAC consumer checkpoint data that showed up.9 month overmonth, 4.5% year-over-year. We'll see. Right now the expectations for retail sales month overmonth up.3 X vehicles up 04 X vehicles and gas up2 those would be modest numbers not as good as the Bank of America consumer checkpoint data so we'll watch those now with all that data that we're going to absorb earnings are going to be important but what's most important geopolitics still problems between the US and Iran now uh Ukraine and Russia are involved now. Yemen is lighting up and uh the Houthis in Yemen, there may be problems there that the US may have to get involved in. Take all these stories, put them in one big pile and what's happening escalation, not deescalation. Right now, crude oil prices up 2.3%. That should keep markets in check despite the fact we're looking right on the calendar at earnings that could be as much as 25 to 30% higher year-over-year for the third quarter. So, a lot going on, a lot of push and pull.