Matt Tuttle on Historically “Bad” Market Breadth, MU Earnings Can “Pull Everything Down”

And Alex really appreciate the breakdown there. That's AlexCofn Investing here on the network. But I do want to welcome our next guest. Take a broader look at the reaction that we're seeing this mornin have a big week in terms of macro data. We're also kicking off tech earnings wit micron. We've got Matthew Tuttle joining us this morning CEO of Tuttle Capital Management. And Mat you brought up a really good point. We've been talking a lot about market breadth and this bad br But you brought up that historically, there are only two other times that stand out to you that have similarities to where we currently are. So walk me through how you're comparing those other two historical instances.nd if you think that we may have a similar reaction or a similar, a similar move that we did then. Yeah. And unfortunately, the, the only two times we've had breadth this bad were kind of that 1999, 2000 area in 1973. Most of your viewers probably don't remember the 70s, lucky for you. But we do remember what happened in 2000. And, you know, it was it was pretty ugly. You've got a lot of people comparing what's going on right now, you know, in A with what was going on in the internet, you know, doesn't mean that that's what's going to happen here. But certainly yout to be prepared, watch your position sizing, have hedges in your portfolio just in And you know, I'd be, I normally I love buying dips. I'd be c on, on any AI related dips micron reports on Wednesday. And you mentioned most of the viewers ly don't remember what happened in the 70s. So I do want to dive into that because it's a fascinating setup, a little less bubble. I mean, this was this period divergence that I think many people called a stealth bear ma I mean, do you have concerns that we are in a stealth bear market that under the surface we are missing what's really happening here. to far. And once the cracks crack, we could be in big trouble. Yeah. So I think that the termet matter as much. I think w you're seeing is outside of the indices, which are not very far from a time highs. The average stock is getting crushed and bonds are getting crushed. So if you're sitting there in a 6040 portfolio something like that, you're not having a very good tght now. I think the real par to the0s is the potential of stagfl I don't think we're anywhere near that. The economicrs still look pretty strong. You know, infl isot so bad depending on what you believe. I actually believe it's ably clo. But that's a conversation for anothe day. But that's the parallel I'd worry more about from the 70s is we have a period oftagflation. What I'd worry about from the 2000 is you've got a bubble that bursts. And you know, again, most of you remember how that looked and felt. Matthew, we'ng to need another conversation to unpack that inflation. So I'm going to save that for, for our next chat. But I want to dive into that at another time. But let's talk about micron. You said you'd st of dip buying in tech until we hear from Micron on Wednesday. What specifically do you need to hear from micron to feel moreco. Yeah. I mean you've got the expectations. Then you've got the whisper numbers. I would love to see them blow away the whisper numbers. You know whatevse are we don't youknow, f attention to it because it'sgoio be. It's a binary bet. You know, they're either go make the market happy and we're going to have a rally or they're going to mak the market sad. And we're not. You can't really bet on that ahead of time unless you're a gambler. So, you know, I, I'd sit on important earnings announcement. There are a bunch of bottleneck trades we love memory is is the biggie. And you know, any weakness in my is is going to hurt. So definitely want to see them talking about stronger demand higher prices. You know, all the things that makes traders happy.nd let's dive into if we potentially saw any weakness. You said it's going to hurt ifn disappoints. If that happens, what parts of the AI trade are most vulnerable. So I mean I think they are. Unfortunately the problem is the AI trade is in many ways one trade. You know, you're not going to see memory s sell off in photonic stocks going up. You know. So I think micron has the ability to pull everything down. It's also got the ability to pull everythingwhich is why I wouldn't be you know as a trader, you know you can own the AI names. I wouldn't be trying to buy the dips like we're seeing today before see what happens with micron. All right. So Matthew, got infla depending on what metric you're looking at 3.4 or perhaps 11. We're going to unpack that another time. But you said you need to be careful in this environment. You need to hedge. So how are you hedging right now. So a lot of different ways. There are ways that you can creatively use puts to hedge. We're going to have soms coming out for that later this year. You know the other area that we really like is we think most people could use more real assets in their lif So, you know, gold, which is getting crushed today and, you know, and gold, you know, it used to be an easy hedge. It's not it's going to be weird. Every once in a while I'd be buying the dip on gold. You want to be an oil and gas. You know, this whole thing in the Middle East isn't over. So you want to be in that. The other area we like. Iean, buy the dip on that or hed. I timber names. You know, I and and then I'd a in managed futures. You know, managed futures has the ability to be long commodities. If commodities do do well, which wenk they will. It's al got the ability to be short the indices. If we see another 2000 to 2002 scenario. All right, Matthew, I'm going to make sure that we get you on the books to have that 11% inflation conversation. Of course we'll be getting PCE here, but I do want to unpack that another time. Great to h