More Fed hikes on the horizon? Here’s what you need to know

THEN WHERE RATES ARE. AND IF YOU LOOK AT THE CURVE TODAY, WE'RE GREEN ACROSS IT TEN YEARS AT 525. BUT YOU'VE GOT EVERYTHING IS HIGHER TODAY. WALLER MADE NEWS YESTERDAY. THE FED GOVERNOR DID WHEN HE SAID MORE HIKES ARE LIKELY NECESSARY TO GET BACK TO 2% IN A MORE TIMELY WAY. MARKETS BETTING ON DECEMBER. NOW, ANYONE'S GUESS AS TO WHETHER OCTOBER IS 5050, MAYBE LESS. WHO KNOWS? STEVE LIESMAN MAY KNOW OR CERTAINLY HAS AN OPINION. HE'S OUR SENIOR ECONOMICS REPORTER BECAUSE NOW WE HAVE THE NEWS, STEVE, OF THAT WHITE HOUSE HEARING REGARDING LISA COOK. I WONDER WHETHER YOU KNOW, HOW THAT NEWS IS PLAYING OUT ON THE CURVE. AND THIS THIS HEARING WITH I DON'T THINK IT'S A STRETCH TO SUGGEST A HEARING WITH A PREDETERMINED OUTCOME IF THE OUTCOME IS GOING TO BE DECIDED BY THE COMMANDER IN CHIEF, WHO OBVIOUSLY WANTS LISA COOK OUT. >> YEAH. ULTIMATELY THE DECISION I BELIEVE DOES WILL REST WITH THE PRESIDENT. THERE IS A COMMITTEE MADE UP OF THE HEAD OF THE OFFICE OF GOVERNMENT ETHICS, THE HEAD OF THE EEOC, AS WELL AS KEVIN HASSETT. HASSETT, BY THE WAY, THE NSC DIRECTOR HAS ALREADY SAID THAT THE ALLEGATIONS AGAINST COOK ARE ARE SERIOUS AND SAID SHE WAS BEING PARTISAN BY NOT AGREEING TO RESIGN OR STEP ASIDE. IN HIS WORDS, IN THE FACE OF THE OF THE ALLEGATIONS AGAINST HER. THERE'S A LOT OF QUESTIONS ABOUT THIS, SCOTT. WE HAVEN'T SEEN ANYTHING LIKE THIS SINCE. WE BELIEVE THE TIME OF OF PRESIDENT HOOVER. MAYBE. SO WHAT THIS IS AND THE AND THE THE FORM IT WILL TAKE THE POWER THAT IT HAS OR ALL UNCLEAR TO US. I THE ATTORNEYS FOR COOK HAVE SAID THAT THEY DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE A LEGITIMATE HEARING, AND ELIZABETH WARREN CALLED IT A KANGAROO COURT. >> YEAH, WELL, WE'LL WATCH IT PLAY OUT AND WE'LL SEE HOW THE MARKET REACTS. I GUESS THE BOTTOM LINE IS, IS THE PRESIDENT CAN OBVIOUSLY TRY AND FIRE ANYBODY HE WANTS. AND HE'S ALREADY TRIED TO FIRE MISS COOK AT ONE POINT. IT'S NOT GOING TO CHANGE THE FACT. HOWEVER, THAT SEEMS THIS FED HAS MOVED TO BE DECIDEDLY MORE HAWKISH. WHAT WOULD YOU SAY ABOUT OCTOBER. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS ON THE TABLE IN IN LIGHT OF WHERE WE ARE ON AN INFLATION STANDPOINT, WHERE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS HAVE NOW MOVED, YOU KNOW, RELATIVE TO SOME OF THE DATA ALSO? >> WELL, I THINK THAT TWO TOP LIEUTENANTS OF KEVIN WARSH HAVE SPOKEN, AND THEY'VE USED THIS IDEA OF THE FED COULD BENEFIT FROM HAVING MORE TIME. AND THOSE, OF COURSE, ARE WILLIAMS AND JEFFERSON, THE VICE CHAIR. I THINK THAT'S PROBABLY WHERE THE CHAIR IS. I THINK AT THIS POINT, ALTHOUGH THEY'RE I THINK THEY'RE GOING TO BE MEMBERS OF THE COMMITTEE WHO MIGHT WANT TO MOVE NOW, OR MAYBE WALLER IS AMONG THEM. CERTAINLY A HAMMOCK AND PERHAPS LOGAN. THINK THE FED OUGHT TO BE DOING MORE RIGHT NOW, ESPECIALLY AS THESE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS RISE. THEY'RE DEFINITELY WORTH WATCHING. THE THE RISE IN GAS PRICES HAS REALLY INFECTED THE PUBLIC'S VIEW OF THE OUTLOOK FOR INFLATION IN A VERY NEGATIVE WAY, IN A WAY THAT COULD EVENTUALLY OR COULD BECOME WORRISOME. I WILL SAY RIGHT NOW, SCOTT, THAT THE ODDS OF A OCTOBER HIKE ARE ONLY AT 20%. THEY'VE COME WAY DOWN, AND I DON'T THINK THE FED WOULD HIKE INTO A 20% PROBABILITY OF A HIKE AT AT THIS POINT. BUT, SCOTT, YOU RAISE A BROADER POINT, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, THE PRESIDENT IS, IS IS NOT GOING TO GIVE UP HERE. HE KEEPS ATTACKING THE FEDERAL RESERVE. THIS IS SEEN AS A BY SOME AS AN ATTACK ON THE FED'S INDEPENDENCE. AND HE IS BLAMING. AND MEMBERS OF THE ADMINISTRATION HAVE BLAMED THE COMMITTEE AND NOT THE CHAIRMAN FOR THE RECENT RATE HIKE AND THE BENT TOWARDS