SPX Equal Weight Outperforms, Crude’s Climb & Treasury Yield Headwinds Linger

change. So that's how we're lookinghis Thursda Pretty self-explanatory as we continue to do this dance with oil and yields and stocks. So let's get out to Kevin Green who joins me now for the m setup. See how he's seeing things this morning. Good morning KG. Justalk us through the levels you're watching. Morning Sam. Well we e buyers kind of stepping in here. Actually the equalt S&P 500 is outperforming the market cap weighted index because logy is pulling us to the downside here a little bit this morning. But if you're kind of looking at the levels I'm looking to the upside 7810 as you're kind of area of resistance for today's market. And if we get a further breakdown to the downside, firea support 7760 and then below that 7740. But you talked about this rotation happening in the market. You know, utilities stilling aretty decent bid. Financials are actually outperforming. And the only reason why is because of Berkshire Hathaway. It's on a six day winning streak right now as you are still seeing some of the bigger banks actually pulling back for. But that's an interesting kind of perspective when it comes to the financials general. And you still see volatility actually still relatively here given the environment that we have with energy prices moving higher, yields moving higher as well, it's just not being translated into equity vol as ofet. So overall pretty decent day, pretty decent recovery from the s session we did mark some pretty decent lows to be able to recover more for hopefully get back to that 7800 level. Yeah. I mean obv we sawt solid demand. We were talking about that yesterday for the ten year note auction. The seems to be some buyers at these levels. But obviously we did a round trip looking at the levels that we were waking up to this morning. I'm just wondering what's going on with crude. I mean, what's the move behind the upside I mean, is this something to do with the Houthis launching morak there's actually two components morning, especially if you're looking at WTI. First and foremost, from a technical standpoint, we actuad a luence os that were actually for the most part hit yesterday. We had the 50 day moving average. We also have this upward ascending chan The support level was also an area of confluence. And th we had the volume weighted average price from February was also sitting at the sam level as the 50 day moving average. So some buyers did step in a litt of a reactionary move to the upside. Here. You're kind of looking at it from hnical standpoint, that $94.25 could be your next major area of resistance. That 20 day moving average. From a new standpoint. We had two strikes on Saudi airports overnight. We also have President Trump saying that he's not really looking for a deal with Ira this point in time. There's also a report that they are looking at military preparations. The U.S. is to strike Iran even before the midterm elections, which a lot of energy traders did not ha on th radar. And then we also had some Russian refineries getting hit ght as well. So the strikes continue to happen. The disruption when it comes t logistics within the energy patch continues to accelerate, at least for now. And we are seeing a little bit of pressure when it comes to yields because of this rebound. But we'll see how this all kind of plays out here. I think you h still look at the byproducts. That's going to be the main driver of inflatoving forward. So you have diesel prices moving aggressively higher this morning as well uut 4.5%. And you have gasoline. That's up around 3%, 3.5% last time that I checked here. So a lot of pressure on that front, but we're still not back to those highs that we saw about a month and a half ago. Two months ago. Yeah for sure. Obviously keeping an eye o yields as we get more information today we've got a bit of data. I mean the FOMCes, I think the view yesterday was that that was pretty stale att poi that we got it because obviously we've been hearing vas to how they're thinking. We did get Christopher Waller in the rn, who seems to be inclined thatmoh seemingly opening the door to an October pau which isind of what the market is pricing in anyway. But what about the data this morning? I mean, claims continues to, I guess, support this Fed's narrative o you know, the labor markets hanging in there will focus on inflation. We've some wholesale inventories hitting the wires just now. What are we seeing there? Yeah. from a wholesale inventory standpoint the increase on a month overa month basis. Street, the previous print that we actually had was 0.7%. So a little bit of a revision to the dow here. Inventory levels have been kind of moving higher. That's actually going to be deflationary for the market. If we start seeing inventories starting to draw down a little e could see maybe retailers actually pushing prices a bit higher, once again, fueling that inflation narrative from an unemployment claim standpoint for the week. Last week, we saw 197,000 that were being filed. So he was looking for around 200,000. And we conti see that four week moving average moving to the downside. So the employment picture from the high frequency data still looks relatively good. And from a wle inventory number, which is only like a second tier or even a third tier da, you are seeing maybe some stabilization from what we have seen from the previous month not big headline movers when it comes to the economic data today, given the fact that the trend for unemployment claims has been relatively steady over the last two months. Yeah, hanging in there. Next one, obviously we're going to be watchings that CPI repor We've got Kashkari in Malayalam speaking today. We'll see what they have to s