Surveillance Pricing, Orszag’s Retirement Warning, Suburb Discount Dwindles

TOM: GOOD NOON, EVERYBODY. 25 DAYS UNTIL THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS. I'M TOM KEENE. COURSE, SCARLET FU LEADING THE CHALLENGE HERE. EVERYTHING IS OVERWHELMED ON PERSONAL FINANCE AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT. THAT CONCERN THE SENTIMENT. THAT STATISTIC THIS MORNING SPEAKS VOLUMES ABOUT THE TENSION IN AMERICA. SCARLET: PEOPLE FEEL LOUSY BECAUSE NO ONE LIKES HIGH OIL PRICES, NO ONE LIKES HIGH MORTGAGE RATES, AND NOW SOMEONE CAN DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT WHEN THEY GO TO THE POLLS. TOM: WE ARE DOING THIS EVERY FRIDAY. WE ARE TRYING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE ELITE DISCUSSION THAT WE DO EVERY DAY ON BLOOMBERG, BECAUSE MORE THAN HALF OF AMERICA WITH THAT STATISTIC IS FLAT ON OUR BACK. SCARLET: THEN YOU LOOK AT GDP NUMBERS, AND IT LOOKS LIKE EVERYTHING IS JUST FINE. CORPORATE EARNINGS NEXT WEEK ALSO JUST FINE. MORE THAN FINE. TOM: A BEAUTIFUL OCTOBER IT IS IN NEW YORK CITY. AGAIN, WE WELCOME ALL OF YOU WITH IMPORTANT CONVERSATION. PETER ORSZAG WILL JOIN US TODAY OF LAZARD, BUT HIS DEFINITIVE WORK ON AMERICAN RETIREMENT OVER THE ARC OF HIS CAREER, THRILLED TO HAVE DR. OR ZAG WITH US. SCARLET: LATER, ANASTASIA AMOROSO WILL BE SITTING DOWN WITH US. WE WILL GET HER VIEW ON HOW THE GREAT BOND SELLOFF RESETS THE TABLE FOR VALUATIONS IN STOCKS. TOM: SHE HAS BEEN WONDERFUL ABOUT THE COURAGE TO STAY IN THE MARKET AS WELL. RIGHT NOW I HAVE TO STAY IN THE MARKET. I HAVE NOT BOUGHT A FIRST SHARE YET. CASH RUNS DOING WELL THIS WEEK. I DON'T CARE ABOUT STOCKS. SOME DO. WHAT IS IMPORTANT IS THE BULL MARKET STATISTIC FOR ANASTASIA. 14.92 ON THE VIX IS A WILD STATISTIC. SCARLET: WE ARE LOOKING AT A FOURTH-STRAIGHT YEAR OF DOUBLE-DIGIT GAINS AND ALSO GAINS IN EQUITIES. LET'S SHOW YOU WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH YIELDS. THE 10-YEAR YIELD MOVING UP. THAT HAS BEEN A FAMILIAR SIGHT. THE DOLLAR UP SLIGHTLY AND OIL PRICES FOR WTI JUST BELOW $92 A BARREL. TOM: OUR ROUNDTABLE THIS MORNING. GETTING STARTED WITH GOOD CONVERSATIONS. GURA INFLICTED UPON US PHOTOGRAPHS OF CHILDREN PLAYING FOOTBALL. DAVID GURA REALLY ON TOP OF THE MIDTERM DEBATE. WITH US, JESSICA CARLE, AUTHOR OF BLOOMBERG OPINION TODAY. IT IS A HUGE SUMMATION OF ALL THAT WE ARE DOING AT BLOOMBERG OPINION. AND MATCH AFRICAN IS WITH US. -- MAX CHAFKIN IS WITHOUT. SCARLET: HE HAS WRITTEN ABOUT SOMETHING CALLED AI SURVEILLANCE PRICING, WHICH IS LIKE DYNAMIC PRICING, BUT PERSONALIZED BASED ON WHO YOU ARE AND WHAT YOU HAVE DONE BEFORE. IS THAT RIGHT? >> THIS IS THE IDEA THAT AS PRICING ALGORITHMS GET MORE SOPHISTICATED WE ALREADY HAVE THIS TO SOME EXTENT WITH SOCIAL MEDIA ADVERTISING, WHERE YOU HAVE A PAIR OF SHOES THAT FOLLOWS YOU AROUND THE INTERNET. THERE ARE GROUPS, MANY OF THEM LEFT-LEANING, ANY TRYING TO GET POPULIST RAGE GOING, WARNING ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR THESE SAME KINDS OF TECHNOLOGIES TO APPLY TO -- TO THINGS LIKE GROCERY STORES. THE IDEA -- AND THIS IS MOSTLY THEORETICAL AT THIS POINT -- THAT YOU ARE WALKING TO THE GROCERY STORE AND THE PRICE WILL CHANGE BASED ON OTHER STUFF YOU HAVE IN YOUR SHOPPING CART. FOR INSTANCE -- AND THIS CAME UP IN A STORY I JUST WROTE -- WALMART HAS A PATENT THAT SUGGESTS THEY WOULD CHANGE THE PRICE OF MAYONNAISE IF YOU ALREADY HAD TUNA IN THE CAR. WALMART RESPONDED TO THIS BY SAYING, WE ARE NOT CHANGING THE PRICE OF MAYONNAISE YET, THIS IS JUST A PATENT. WE ARE NOT DOING THIS, THEY ARE COMMITTED TO THE COMING YOU KNOW, THE SLOGAN, WHICH IS EVERYDAY LOW PRICES. BUT IT DOES SORT OF SHOW YOU THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE WITHIN THESE COMPANIES THINKING ABOUT THIS STUFF, AND WE ARE SEEING THIS IN LESS HIGH-PROFILE EXAMPLES. SCARLET: SO, THE TECHNOLOGY IS THERE BUT IT MAY NOT BE IMPLEMENTED AT THE MOMENT? THIS SEEMS LIKE SOMETHING POLITICIANS WOULD JUMP ON. DAVID: I CAN IMAGINE THEY WOULD. TOM: EVEN REPUBLICANS HAVE GOT TO LOOK AT THIS. IS IT IN PLACE NOW? IT JESSICA CARL BOOKS AN AIRPLANE TICKET AND COMES BACK SIX HOURS LATER DO THEY? THE PRICE? MAX: THE AIRPLANE ONE IS ONE WHERE IT IS PRETTY MUDDY. THE AIRLINES SAY, NO, WE DON'T DO THAT. NO ONE WHO HAS BOUGHT AN AIRLINE TICKET WILL SEE THAT THE PRICES CHANGE VERY OFTEN. THERE ARE THESE KIND OF, LIKE, ONE-OFF CASES. ONE CAME UP DURING THE HEARING IN CONGRESS. JOSH HAWLEY HAS BEEN RINGING THE BELL ON THIS. I THINK THE ISSUE IS THEY HAVE SO MANY DIFFERENT FARE CLASSES, POTENTIALLY DOZENS, EVEN HUNDREDS, WHERE IT STARTS TO GET CLOSE TO PERSONALIZED. TOM: I GET TAKEN TO THE CLEANERS. THE REASON JESSICA CARL IS HERE, SHE IS GOOD AT SOCIAL MEDIA, UNLIKE THE REST OF US. GIVE US AN UPDATE AS WE TALKED TO MAX ABOUT THE NEW DIGITAL IMPACT ON AMERICANS THAT ARE NOT HIPSTERS AND INTO SOCIAL? IT PERMEATES OUR SOCIETY, DOESN'T IT? JESSICA: I THINK YOU HEAR A STORY LIKE THAT AND THAT STORY ABOUT TUNAFISH, THAT WOULD GO VIRAL AND THAT IS WHAT IS FEEDING INTO THE NEGATIVE CONSUMER SENTIMENT YOU ARE SEEING. EVEN IF IT IS NOT HAPPENING PEOPLE ON SOCIAL MEDIA, THERE ARE THESE RAGE BAIT STORIES THAT ARE PUSHING POLITICIANS TO ADDRESS THESE ISSUES IN A DIFFERENT WAY ON SOCIAL MEDIA. SCARLET: SPEAKING OF POLITICIANS TRYING TO ADDRESS THIS, PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS RENAMED ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE INTO SUPER INTELLIGENCE, AND THIS FOCUS ON SEMANTICS IS INTERESTING. I KNOW YOU HAVE BEEN WRITING ABOUT IT IN YOUR NEWSLETTER. JESSICA: YESTERDAY HE WANTED TO LABEL EVERYONE WHO STILL SAYS AI AS THE ENEMY. I WAS JOKING MY NAME IS NOT JESSICA, IT IS THE ENEMY NOW. WHEN CONSUMERS SEE HIM FOCUSING ON THE NAME OF AI WHEN THERE IS SO MUCH ANGER AND PESSIMISM DIRECTED AT THIS TECHNOLOGY -- PEOPLE ARE WORRIED IT IS PRICE GOUGING THEM, IT IS GOING TO ELIMINATE THEIR JOBS, SO THERE IS A LOT OF FEAR AROUND THIS AND THAT LABEL SEEMS SILLY IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS. TOM: I DON'T BUY FOR A MINUTE AI MATTERS IN THE ELECTION. DAVID GURA, YOU ARE ON TOP OF THIS. LET'S ASSUME AI DOESN'T MATTER. WHAT, THEN, DOES NOT OF THE FIRST TUESDAY IN NOVEMBER? DAVID: I THINK IT DOES MATTER. YOU ARE SEEING REFERENDA AROUND THE CONSTRUCTION OF DATA CENTERS. YOU LOOK AT THE DEBATE THAT TOOK PLACE IN MICHIGAN LAST NIGHT. BOTH CANDIDATES CAME OUT AGAINST BUILDING MORE DATA CENTERS AT THIS MOMENT. IT IS A TANGIBLE TOTEM OF WHAT AN ELECTORATE IS SEEING AS EMBLEMATIC OF DATA CENTERS RIGHT NOW. BUT IT IS AFFORDABILITY. DEMOCRATS HAVE SEIZED ON THAT AS AN ISSUE THEY WANT TO KEEP TALKING ABOUT. REPUBLICANS ARE FEARFUL OF THE FACT THAT THEY DON'T HAVE AN ANSWER TO IT. TOM: I MAKE IT UP AS I GO. YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE LITERATURE. COOK POLITICAL REPORT WITH A REDO ON THE HOUSE. DAVID: EIGHT DEMOCRATIC SEATS. 18 GROUP -- 18 DEMOCRATIC SEATS NOW IN THEIR LIST OF WHAT THEY THINK IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN THE HOUSE. DEMOCRATS HAVE TO GET TO 218. WHAT THE COOK POLITICAL REPORT IS PREDICTING NOW IS SOMETHING MORE LIKE TO HUNT A 24 OR ABOVE. -- SOMETHING MORE LIKE 224 OR ABOVE. I THINK THERE IS THIS EXPECTATION THE SENATE IS STILL GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR DEMOCRATS, BUT DEMOCRATS ARE MAKING INROADS THERE AS WELL. SCARLET: THIS IS SOMETHING CERTAIN PEOPLE HAVE JUMPED ON, AND THESE ARE PEOPLE THAT WORKED WITH ELIZABETH WARREN, THE SENATOR. IS THIS NOW A DEMOCRATIC ISSUE? MAX: THERE ARE REPUBLICANS TRYING TO CLAIM THE MANTLE ON AI AND AFFORDABILITY. I THINK THE REASON WHY THE DEMOCRATIC GROUPS I TALKED TO SEE THIS AS A GOOD ISSUE IS BECAUSE IT HITS TWO BUTTONS. IT HITS AI, I'M UPSET ABOUT AI, THERE IS A LOT OF MONEY GOING IN, THERE IS THE SENSE I PEOPLE ARE NOT BENEFITING FROM THIS. WHATEVER YOU CALL IT. AND THEN THERE IS AFFORDABILITY AND THE THEME FOR THEM THAT IS APPEALING IS THIS COMBINES BOTH. SKEPTICISM AND AFFORDABILITY. AI IS NOT JUST THIS THING THAT MIGHT TAKE AWAY HER JOB AT SOME POINT IN THEORY. IT IS ALSO DRIVING YOUR PRICES UP, WHICH WHETHER OR NOT IS HAPPENING IN GROCERY STORES IS HAPPENING FROM AN INFLATION PERSPECTIVE. SCARLET: DAVID: IT SPEAKS TO THIS NOTION THAT YOU DON'T KNOW WHAT IS HAPPENING. FEEL LIKE AI IS DEVELOPING BUT YOU DON'T HAVE A GRASP OF WHAT IT IS DOING, WHAT IT WILL DO. THIS IS ANOTHER EXAMPLE. IT RENDERS APPARENT THE ELECTORATE. I DON'T HAVE A HANDLE ON WHERE THIS TECHNOLOGY IS HEADED. SCARLET: THIS IS A COMMON THEME IN THE OPINION PIECES OUR CONTRIBUTORS WRITE ABOUT. JESSICA: THERE IS SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE ECONOMY AND AI SKEPTICISM FEEDS INTO THAT, AND I THINK YOU SEE SPENDING ON -- IT'S AREA SPENDING IS STAYING IN-LINE, BUT YOU SEE PEOPLE BECOME HESITANT TO SPEND ON BIGGER THINGS. TOM: CAN YOU GET RID OF ALL OF THE AI GARBAGE ON TWITTER? JESSICA: I WOULD LOVE TO. I THINK IF I DID I WOULDN'T BE WORKING HERE. TOM: IT IS ANOTHER WAY OF AN USABILITY -- UN-USABILITY ON TWITTER. DAVID: LEVERAGED? TOM: BELLE TUNIS IS ON THE BOARD, ERIC BELL TUNIS. BUT THE ROADSHOW, THE MERCHANDISE IS GOING TO BE BOWTIES. THE MERCHANDISE IS GOING TO BE A BELIEVABLE. WE WILL SEE HOW THAT GOES. SCARLET: YOU CAN'T DO TRIPLE LEVERAGE RIGHT NOW ACCORDING TO THE SEC. TOM: THAT IS THE PROBLEM. TERRY GENSLER, WHY DID YOU LEAVE? SCARLET: THANK YOU TO ALL OF OUR PANELISTS. DAVID GURA IS COANCHOR AT BLOOMBERG "THIS WEEKEND." JESSICA KARL, AND MAX CHAFKIN. TOM: MAX ON A FRIDAY. SCARLET: WE ARE EXCITED. COMING UP, PETER ORSZAG, LAZARD CEO AND CHAIRMAN. HE IS BEHIND SOME OF THE IDEAS THAT ARE CRITICAL TO THE 401(K). THIS IS BLOOMBERG MONEY. ♪ TOM: THANK YOU. SCARLET: THAT WAS FUN. TOM: ON A PERFECT FRIDAY FROM NEW YORK CITY. "BLOOMBERG MONEY." TOM KEENE AND SCARLET FU. THAT WAS A SPIRITED CONVERSATION. THE HEART OF THE MATTER IS 25 DAYS UNTIL THE MIDTERMS. SCARLET: AI IS DOMINATING EVERYONE STOPS. CANNOT GET AWAY FROM RISING GAS PRICES, MORTGAGE RATES. TOM: FOOD PRICES. PETER ORSZAG IS WITH US, CHAIRMAN AND CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER OF LAZARD. HIS CONTRIBUTION TO MODERN RETIREMENT IN AMERICA. HE WANDERED IN AND GOT A JOB AND SAID, YOU KNOW WHAT? WHEN WE TAKE A NEW JOB WHICH SHOULD AUTOMATICALLY BE IN THE 401(K) OF THE COMPANY. AT THE TIME IT WAS ABSOLUTELY SEISMIC. HE ALSO LOOKS AT HIS ECONOMICS AT LAZARD. HERE IS A SEISMIC ESSAY FROM JANUARY THIS YEAR. THE RISK OF HIGHER U.S. INFLATION IN 2026, RESEARCH DEMONSTRATES -- THE FREQUENCY OF PURCHASES OF EGGS. INFLATION RISING ABOVE 4% AT THE END OF 2026 IS PLAUSIBLE AND A MOST LIKELY SCENARIO. YOU AND ADAM POSEN NAILED IT. PETER: THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS NOT THE VICTORY LAP BUT WHY DID WE SAY THAT? WE ARE LIVING IN A NEW SUPPLY-SIDE ERA WHERE IF YOU WANT TO UNDERSTAND INFLATION TODAY YOU NEED TO LOOK AT THE SUPPLY SHOCKS THAT HAPPENED A YEAR OR TWO AGO. I JUST READ RESEARCH SUGGESTING THAT DO NOT WORRY IN THE NEXT FEW MONTHS HE WILL SEE A TAILING OFF OF INFLATION. OK, BUT OUR OTHER POINT IS THERE WILL BE CONTINUE WILL DO SUPPLY SHOCKS. WE ARE LIVING IN THE SUPPLY-SIDE ERA 2.0 IN WHICH SHE WILL BE HIT BY THESE ON AN ONGOING BASIS. TOM: OUR "BLOOMBERG MONEY" AUDIENCE IS HIT BY IT EVERY MOMENT. RETIREMENT AND WEALTH MANAGEMENT. DOES THERE NEED TO BE A NEW SET OF A HIGHER INTEREST RATE? WHAT THE FANCY PEOPLE CALL A HIGHER ACTUARY ASSUMPTION. PETER: I THINK THE INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT IS DIFFERENT TODAY THAN IT WAS THREE OR FOUR YEARS AGO. IT IS UNFORTUNATE THAT WE DID NOT TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THAT EXTENDED MOMENT WHEN WE HAD LOW RATES TO EXTEND THE MATURITY OF TREASURIES. WE SAID WE HAVE BEEN SHORTING MATURITY. THAT IS TOO BAD. WE ARE IN A NEW ERA FOR THE BOND VIGILANTES ARE COMING BACK. TOM: WE COULD DIGRESS FOR TWO HOURS. SCARLET: GETTING BACK TO THE INFLATION STORE YOU WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT. IS AI INFLATIONARY? THERE IS THE BUILDOUT, IMPLEMENTATION. WE HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO THE MASS APPLICATION YET. PETER: ON AI, THE BUILDOUT IS MASSIVE -- 3%, 3.5% OF GDP INVESTMENT. MORE THAN RAILWAYS, ELECTRIFICATION BY A SIGNIFICANT MARGIN. THAT IS PUTTING UPWARD PRESSURE ON INTEREST RATES. I THINK WE NEED TO SEPARATE THE TECHNOLOGY AND THE BUSINESS MODEL. I'M A HUGE BELIEVER IN THE TECHNOLOGY. I HAVE 70 OR 80 AGENTS RUNNING AS WE SPEAK. I'M ASTONISHED BY HOW RAPIDLY THINGS ARE PROGRESSING. BUT BECAUSE THERE IS SO MUCH DEBT-FINANCED, THE RISK OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS IN THIS ECOSYSTEM IS HIGHER THAN PEOPLE APPRECIATE. WHEN IT IS DEBT-FINANCED, IF IT JUST DOES THAT, YOU HAVE A PROBLEM. IF IT WERE EQUITY FINANCE, IT WOULD BE DIFFERENT. THE TOKEN SPENT, GOING FROM THIS TO THAT COULD COME FROM OPEN-WEIGHT BUT ALSO FROM LOCAL COMPUTE. THAT IS THE PART PEOPLE ARE NOT APPRECIATING. THE ABILITY TO RUN THE MODELS ON A COMPUTER BASED ON LOCAL COMPUTE. TOM: A FAMILY SHOUTOUT -- MY BROTHER IS DEAD ON ON HIS LOCAL WEIGHT. LOCAL COMPUTING. SCARLET: THERE IS SO MUCH WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT HOW AI WILL WORK AND AFFECT THE ECONOMY. THE RESEARCH LED TO AUTOMATIC ENROLLMENT IN 401KS. YOUR VIEW ON THE TRUMP ACCOUNTS THAT HAD MADE CLEAR KIDS UNDER 18 WILL AUTOMATICALLY BE ENROLLED IN TRUMP ACCOUNTS. IT IS A GOOD THING? PETER: THAT PART IS A GOOD THING. THE POWER OF INERTIA AND THE POWER OF DEFAULT, IF SOMETHING IS EVEN A LITTLE DIFFICULT, OFTEN YOU DO NOT DO IT. THAT WAS THE PART ABOUT AUTOMATIC ENROLLMENT INTO RETIREMENT STATEMENT PLANTS. IF YOU ARE GOING TO SAY SOMETHING FOR KIDS, IT IS BETTER TO AUTO ENROLL. TOM: EVERYWHERE HE GOES YOU HAVE TO RUN FIVE MILES WITH PETER ORSZAG. EVERY CITY. SCARLET: THAT IS ONE WAY TO WEED PEOPLE OUT. TOM: SOCIAL SECURITY WILL FALL APART. IF I HAD TO PICK REPUBLICAN/ DEMOCRAT, YOU WOULD BE ON THE SHORT, SHORT LIST FOR THAT. HOW CLOSE ARE WE TO SOCIAL SECURITY FAILING AFTER THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2028? PETER: SOCIAL SECURITY AND MEDICARE HAVE LOOMING PROBLEMS WITH FINANCING. THEY WILL HAVE TO BE ADDRESSED. IT IS PART OF A FISCAL IMBALANCE OF 6%-7% OF GDP. HISTORY SHOWS WE DO NOT DEAL WITH THESE PROBLEMS UNTIL THEY ARE CRISES. THE LAST SOCIAL SECURITY REFORM DID NOT OCCUR UNTIL LITERALLY CHECKS WERE NOT ABOUT TO GO OUT THE DOOR. YOU NEED THAT FORCING EVENT TO FOCUS PEOPLE'S ATTENTION. SCARLET: PETER, STAY WITH US. PETER ORSZAG IS OUR GUEST RIGHT NOW. LATER ON IN "BLOOMBERG MONEY," THE KNICKS ARE IN THE PRESEASON AND YOU CHECKED OUT THE PRICE FOR A TICKET. TOM: IT IS RIDICULOUS. I'M LOOKING FOR THE LAZARD BOX MYSELF. SCARLET: I DO NOT KNOW IF THEY CAN PICK UP THE PRICE TAG. TOM: JUST ONE GAME, 76ERS. SCARLET: WE WILL TALK ABOUT HOW MUCH THAT COSTS. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG MONEY." TOM: "BLOOMBERG MONEY." THE FISH ARE ALIVE IN THE OPENING SEGMENT. PETER ORSZAG WITH US FROM LAZARD . SCARLET: I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE JUNIOR BANKERS FEARED FOR YEARS PRIME EQUITY WAS AGGRESSIVELY POACHING JUNIOR BANKERS. CITIGROUP CUT ITS ANALYST PROGRAM FROM THREE YEARS TO TW O YEARS SO THE JUNIOR BANKERS CAN ADVANCE FASTER. PETER: I AM THRILLED BY THE TALENT WE ARE ABLE TO ATTRACT TO LAZARD. THE MOST EXCITING THING FOR JUNIOR BANKERS TODAY IS THE OPPORTUNITY TO CHANGE THE WAY THAT WE WORK. WE ARE HIRING MORE MANAGING DIRECTORS SO THERE WILL BE MORE DEAL TEAMS. I REMEMBER EARLY IN MY CAREER, THE MOST EXCITING THING WAS TO BE ABLE TO ASSUME MORE RESPONSIBILITY AS RAPIDLY AS YOU CAN. WHEN YOU HAVE LARGER DEAL TEAMS, THE TECHNOLOGY WILL ENABLE US TO MAKE THE DEAL TEAMS LEANER, AND HOW THAT UPWARD TRAJECTORY. ALSO CULTIVATE AND TRAIN THE CHARACTERISTICS WE THINK WILL BE PARTICULARLY VALUABLE IN OUR BUSINESS IN THE FUTURE. THE ABILITY TO ENGENDER TRUST. SCARLET: THE SOFTER SKILLS. PETER: THE SOFTER SKILLS. THERE IS A GREAT BOOK OUT CALLED "MESSY JOBS" THAT TAKES US THROUGH THE THINGS THAT WILL BE MORE VALUED AS AI DEVELOPS. A SENIOR BANKER'S ROLE IS A ME SSY JOB. IT IS AN EXCITING MOMENT. TOM: I WOULD SUGGEST PETER ORSZAG DODGED A BULLET OF EXHAUSTION AND INVESTMENT BANKING. HOW DO YOU DEAL WITH THE STEREOTYPE OF THE YOUNG KIDS EXHAUSTED? PETER: THIS IS A CRUCIAL MOMENT FOR US TO WEED OUT ALL OF THAT INEFFICIENCY SITTING AROUND FOR NO REASON. TOM: THANK YOU. PETER: I HAVE ALWAYS BELIEVED IN WORKING REALLY HARD. WHEN YOU ARE WORKING REALLY HARD ON THINGS THAT ARE MEANINGFUL AND YOU WERE NOT JUST WASTING TIME, IT IS A MUCH DIFFERENT EXPERIENCE THAN LITERALLY SOMETHING THAT SEEMS TOTALLY INEFFICIENT. THERE IS A LOT OF OPPORTUNITY TO IMPROVE THE PROCESS. SCARLET: SOMETIMES YOU HAVE TO GO THROUGH THE PROCESS TO KNOW WHAT TO DO. PETER: TOTALLY. SCARLET: ARE WE DEPRIVING YOUNG PEOPLE OF THAT? PETER: THERE ARE A LOT OF WAYS TO TRAIN PEOPLE. HONESTLY, THE 176TH TIME YOU ARE MOVING THE BOXES AROUND ON A POWERPOINT SLIDE, YOU ARE NOT LEARNING THAT MUCH. HOW CAN WE TRAIN PEOPLE? WE HAVE GOTTEN VERY GOOD AT TRAINING AIRPLANE PILOTS, INCLUDING THROUGH SIMULATORS, NOT JUST REAL LIFE EXPERIENCES. I THINK THE NEW TECHNOLOGY IS OPENING UP OPPORTUNITIES FOR US TO CULTIVATE THE SKILL SETS WE THINK ARE VALUABLE AND MAKE SURE THERE ARE ENOUGH AT-BATS TO GIVE YOU THE EXPERIENCE YOU NEED. THAT SEEMS OFF, WE HAVE TO PUSH BACK. SCARLET: GOOD STUFF. PETER ORSZAG, CHAIRMAN AND CEO OF LAZARD. TOM: YOU DID NOT HAVE TO JOG WITH PETER ORSZAG. [LAUGHTER] SCARLET: COMING UP, HIGH EARNERS ARE BUCKING THE TREND AND NOT NECESSARILY MAXING OUT THEIR 401(K). PLUS, ANASTASIA AMOROSO JOINS US AS WELL. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG MONEY." TOM: A PERFECT FRIDAY IN NEW YORK CITY WITH A PERFECT SET OF CONVERSATIONS FOR YOUR "BLOOMBERG MONEY." WHAT HER LOVE IS THAT PETER ORSZAG WITH HIS FOUNDATION HELP IN AMERICAN RETIREMENT, HOW MUCH FURTHER WE HAVE TO GO, THE PERCENTAGE OF AMERICANS THAT ARE DISTANT FROM A SUCCESSFUL 401(K). SCARLET: THEY ARE LOOKING AT THE STOCK MARKET TO SAVE THEM. THE LAST THREE YEARS IT HAS DONE VERY WELL. TOM: ANASTASIA AMOROSO SAYS IT IS NEVER GOING DOWN AGAIN. I THINK WE NEED A STOCKMARKET CHECK TO SEE IF WE ARE STILL IN A BULL MARKET. SCARLET: WE VERY MUCH ARE. THE DOW JONES IS LEADING THE WAY AMONG THE MAJOR INDEXES. YOU HAVE GAINS OF ABOUT .5% FOR THE S&P AND NASDAQ. BOTH, RECORD HIGHS THIS WEEK. TOM: IT JUST WON'T GO DOWN. THE VIX UNDER 15%. OIL, $104 A BARREL. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE AT $91. NOT TELLING THE STORY. OVER THE WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BLOOMBERG AND OUR WONDERFUL MIDDLE EAST DESK FOR ANY NEWS OUT THERE, AND PARTICULARLY ON BRENT CRUDE. SCARLET: "BLOOMBERG MONEY" IS OUR DESTINATION FOR PERSONAL FINANCE. ONE OF THE STORIES THAT CAUGHT OUR EYES IS WHETHER TO MAXIMIZE CONTRIBUTIONS TO 401(K)S. YOU TALKED TO A 40-YEAR-OLD WHO DECIDED TO CUT HER CONTRIBUTION DOWN TO 5% FROM 20% SO SHE CAN STILL CAPTURE HER FULL EMPLOYER MATCH, BUT SHE NO LONGER WANTS TO PUT THAT OTHER AMOUNT INTO HER 401(K). SHE IS REDIRECTING IT ELSEWHERE. >> IT HAS BEEN MONTHS OF WRITING STORIES ABOUT MAXERS. I GUESS IT IS TIME TO WRITE A STORY ABOUT ANTI-MAXERS. I TALKED TO SOMEONE WHO SAID SHE WAS MAXIMIZING HER FUTURE. SHE IS LOOKING AT THE ROTH IRA, THE BROKERAGES. SHE WANTS ACCESS TO THE FUNDS EARLIER AND WANTS MORE CONTROL OVER HER INVESTMENTS. SCARLET: IF SHE WERE TO PUT IT IN HER 401(K) SHE WOULD BE PENALIZED IF SHE TOOK IT OUT EARLY. THIS IS FOR PEOPLE WHO WANT TO RETIRE EARLY? >> THIS IS ONE OF THE STORIES WHERE FINANCE HAS TO FIT AROUND YOUR PERSONAL GOALS. IF YOU ARE SOMEONE WHO MAYBE WANTS TO TAKE ON MORE RISK OR MAY RETIRE EARLY BEFORE THOSE TYPICAL RULES WITH THE TRADITIONAL 401(K), THAT IS WHEN IT MAKES SENSE TO MAX OUT -- TO NOT MAX OUT, EXCUSE ME. THE BIG QUESTION NOW IS, A LOT OF RETIREMENT PLANNERS ARE A LITTLE BIT WORRIED ABOUT IT. TOM: THE THING THAT CHANGED FROM PETER ORSZAG IN HIS LANDMARK WORK, IS I BELIEVE WE ARE LIVING LONGER? IS THAT PART OF THIS EQUATION? THAT SOME 39-YEAR-OLD ACTUALLY UNDERSTANDS IF THERE IS A COUPLE THE ACTUAL ERROR -- ACTUARIAL ABILITY TO GET TO 90 IS TANGIBLE? >> THAT IS A CONCERN FOR A LOT OF THEIR RETIREMENT EXPERTS I SPOKE WITH. NOT JUST THE FACT THE 401(K) WAS SUCCESSFUL AS A WELL-BUILDING TOOL, BUT WAS ALSO SUCCESSFUL FOR SAVING FOR RETIREMENT BECAUSE PEOPLE WERE UNABLE TO ACCESS THE MONEY. EVEN IF YOU WERE TEMPTED TO SPEND IT, YOU COULDN'T COME AND THIS IS A CONCERN HERE. IF IT IS SOMETHING YOU HAVE ACCESS TO SOONER. SCARLET: THIS 39-YEAR-OLD IS REDIRECTING HER MONEY TO WHERE? A HEALTH SAVINGS ACCOUNT, A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT? SARAH: A BROKERAGE ACCOUNT AND ROTH IRA. SHE MAXED OUT HER ROTH IRA, BUT SHE PLANS NOT TONIGHT'S CHAIR. -- PLANS NOT TO NEXT YEAR. TOM: SO MANY PEOPLE HAVE TALKED TO SAY IS -- HAVE SAID IT IS A FICTION. LOWER TAX BRACKET. NO, OOPS. SARAH: THE TAX CONSIDERATION AS PART OF IT. EVEN WITH THE ADVENT OF 401(K)S IT IS NOT HELPING PEOPLE THINK ABOUT IT. THE ORIGINAL INCENTIVE OF THE 401(K) WAS TO TAKE THE TAX BREAK , PAID IN RETIREMENT WHEN HOPEFULLY YOU ARE IN A LOWER TAX BRACKET. AS WE HAVE SEEN, TAX RATES ARE HISTORICALLY LOW. THERE IS A LOT MORE ROOM TO GO UP THEN DOWN. SCARLET: THAT IS A REALLY GOOD POINT. SARAH FOSTER WRITES FOR OUR BLOOMBERG MONEY -- TOM: IS SHE ON EVERY WEEK? I LIKE IT, IT'S GOOD. THAT IS BECAUSE THE REPORTING IS SO GOOD. SARAH, THINK YOU SO MUCH. JOINING US NOW -- AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT FOR ALL OF YOU WHO HAVE MISSED THE BULL MARKET, ANASTASIA AMOROSO, PARTNERS GROUP. HER ABILITY ALONG THE WAY TO SAY , FIND COURAGE AND STAY IN THE MARKET, HAS BEEN A LANDMARK AS WELL. ARE YOU STILL A BULL? ANASTASIA: I AM STILL ABLE. THE MARKET WILL GO DOWN AT SOME POINT. I DO ALLOW FOR THIS. IT HAS BEEN A PHENOMENAL RIDE AND I REFRESH THE LONGER-TERM DATA SET. OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS THE S&P AVERAGE SOMETHING LIKE 11 PERCENT, 12 PERCENT. IT HAS BEEN A PHENOMENAL TIME TO ACCUMULATE THAT PERSONAL WEALTH. TOM: THE MONEY, MMR RIGHT NOW, THIS IS ANASTASIA AMOROSO. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE, JOIN NOMOS QUARTER, LOOK FOR JP MORGAN. STANDARD & POOR'S, 490 THREE. THE REST EXPECTED TO DELIVER 18% GROWTH. EARNINGS REVISIONS, CONSISTENTLY POSITIVE. AND HERE IS THE MONEY LINE. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE. THAT IS THE HOPE AND PRAYER. COME ON, AT SOME POINT IT ENDS. ANASTASIA: IT ENDS IF THE FED TIGHTENS THE POLICY SO MUCH THAT IT DOESN'T SLOW THE ECONOMY. IT ENDS IF THE TECHNOLOGY HOPE WE ALL HAVE FOR SOME REASON THAT BUBBLE BURSTS. I DON'T SEE ANY ONE OF THOSE THINGS ON THE HORIZON AND A REASON WHY IT CONTINUES TO BE A BOWL IS, I THINK A LOT OF THE FEARS WE HAD FOR THE DATA ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING RESOLVED. WE ARE IN THE PROCESS OF BEING ABSORBED AND WE CAN MOVE ONTO THE NEXT THING. THE PRICE OF OIL IS HOVERING AROUND $100 A BARREL. THE FACT OF THE MATTER IS, A BIG CHUNK OF MIDDLE EAST PRODUCTION IS MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST BECAUSE OF THE REROUTING AND RESHAPING OF THAT REGION. THAT IS THE FIRST POINT. THE SECOND POINT IS, YIELDS HAVE RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT IT IS AGAINST A BACKDROP OF SOLID ECONOMIC GROWTH. AND THEY HAVE RISEN TO THE POINT WHERE IT IS ATTRACTIVE FOR INVESTORS. IT IS ATTRACTIVE FOR INVESTORS AND YOU DO NOT SEE THE END USER DEMAND STEP BACK AT THE TREASURY AUCTIONS. YOU SEE IT STRENGTHEN. 5.25% ON A 10 YEAR WILL GENERATE INVESTOR APPETITE, WHICH CAN CAP THE LEVEL OF YIELDS FROM HERE ON OUT. SCARLET: THIS GREAT BOND SELLOFF HAS REVIVED THE CASE FOR BONDS. DOES IT MEAN FOR EVALUATIONS OF EQUITIES? -- WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR EVALUATIONS OF EQUITIES? ANASTASIA: IT IS GOING TO DENT THE EVALUATIONS OF EQUITIES. WE HAVE SEEN THAT. IF YOU LOOK AT THE S&P THE BEGINNING OF THIS YEAR YOU WERE LOOKING AT A 23 TIMES MULTIPLE. TODAY IT IS 19, AND PART OF THE REASON IS WE HAD TO ABSORB THE GEOPOLITICAL UNCERTAINTY. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN THAT RESET PLAY OUT IN PRIVATE MARKETS AS WELL. BUT IF THAT IS HAPPENING AGAINST A BACKDROP OF STRONG ECONOMIC GROWTH, THAT EARNINGS GROWTH THAT I DISCUSSED, THAT IS ACCELERATING. THAT ALLOWS COMPANIES THE FREEDOM TO ABSORB THOSE HIGHER YIELDS. TOM: THIS IS A GREAT CONVERSATION FOR THE HAVES. I WANT YOU TO TALK ABOUT PERSONAL FINANCE. YOU COME TO AMERICA FROM EASTERN EUROPE, AND YOU COME OVER HERE. YOU ARE NOT IN SOME FANCY SCHOOL IN NEW YORK CITY. YOU ARE IN NEW MEXICO. THERE IS A HUGE BODY OF AMERICA THAT IS NOW PARTICIPATING IN THE CONVERSATION WE ARE HAVING HERE ABOUT EARNINGS AND FUTURE EARNINGS, TES AND FANCY RATIOS. CONSUMER SENTIMENT OUT HOURS AGO, IT IS TERRIBLE. HOW DO WE DOVETAIL OUR INVESTOR PROSPERITY INTO AN AMERICA THAT FEELS FLAT ON THEIR BACK? I DON'T UNDERSTAND HOW THOSE TWO MEAT. ANASTASIA: IT IS SUCH A HUGE DISCONNECT. EVERYWHERE YOU LOOK CONSUMERS FEEL DEPRESSED ABOUT PERSONAL FINANCES, AND I CAN UNDERSTAND WHY. EVERYWHERE YOU GO THE AVERAGE SELLING PRICES ARE MOVING HIGHER AND WHAT I HAVE SORT OF REALIZED THIS YEAR IS THAT WE ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT WHERE CONSUMER DEMAND IS ACTUALLY QUITE STRONG. WE FEEL LIKE WE ARE BREAKING EVEN AS CONSUMERS, BUT STILL DOING OK. THE DEMAND SIDE OF THE EQUATION IS FINE, BUT ALSO WE ARE CAPACITY CONSTRAINED. WHETHER IT IS THE TRAVEL INDUSTRY, LEISURE AND HOSPITALITY. AS A RESULT, CORPORATIONS HAVE PRICING POWER. THEY ARE USING THAT PRICING POWER, WHICH IS WHY WE HAVE SEEN THOSE RECORD EARNINGS. THE BOTTOM LINE, TOM, IT IS NOT A PHENOMENAL TIME TO BE A CONSUMER. IT IS A BAD TIME TO BE A CONSUMER, BUT IT IS A PHENOMENAL TIME TO BE AN INVESTOR, BECAUSE IF YOU CAN INVEST IN THE COMPANIES THAT ARE SOLVING THOSE CAPACITY BOTTLENECKS AND THEY ARE DELIVERING RECORD EARNINGS IN THE MEANTIME, THAT IS THE WAY TO EVEN OUT THE PLAYING FIELD AND HAVE THOSE CONSUMERS BECOME INVESTORS. SCARLET: ON BLOOMBERG MONEY WE LIKE TO ASK OUR GUESTS HOW YOU ARE INVESTING, HOW YOU HAVE CHANGED YOUR APPROACH TO INVESTING. WHAT WOULD SURPRISE PEOPLE ABOUT THE WAY YOU THINK ABOUT INVESTING PERSONALLY? ANASTASIA: I DON'T KNOW IF THAT IS SURPRISING NECESSARILY, BUT I DO INVEST ACROSS THE VARIOUS ASSET CLASSES. THE CORE OF THE PORTFOLIO HAS TO BE THAT S&P EXPOSURE, THE NASDAQ EXPOSURE, THE AI TRADE. SCARLET: ASSETS TOO? ANASTASIA: PRIVATE ASSETS, BUT I DON'T THINK IT WOULD BE SURPRISING GIVEN THAT I WORK FOR A PRIVATE MARKETS, AND IF I DO EXTEND THE UNIVERSE FROM PUBLIC TO PRIVATE AND THINK OF IT AS A CONTINUUM. IF YOU ARE GOING TO INVEST IN EQUITIES, MAKE IT PUBLIC EQUITIES, BUT ALSO PRIVATE. IF YOU INVEST IN FIXED INCOME, HIGH-GRADE IS GREAT, TREASURIES ARE BECOMING GREATER, BUT AT THE SAME TIME I'M QUITE ATTRACTED TO PRIVATE CREDIT AND THE FACT IS YOU HAVE THAT SUBSTANTIAL YIELD YOU CAN EARN. TOM: I WANT TO BRING UP THIS CHART. IT IS MY BILL GROSS CHART. I USED IT MANY YEARS AGO. IT IS THE 10-YEAR YIELD BEFORE ANYBODY IN THIS ROOM WAS BORN. IT IS THE GREAT MODERATION FROM THE VOLCKER YEARS DOWN. IT HAS BEEN EXTRAORDINARY. WHAT DO YOU SAY TO THE CREW ADDICTED TO PRICE UP AND LOW YIELDS THAT WE HAD FOR 5, 6, 7 YEARS? ANASTASIA: WELL, THAT IS NOT THE FUTURE. THAT IS WHAT I WOULD SAY TO THAT. BYGONE IS THE ERA OF LOWER YIELDS AND THE TERM PREMIUM THAT HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED. IF YOU DISSECT THE MOVE HIGHER IN THE 10 YEAR TREASURY YIELD SOME OF IT HAS TO DO WITH STICKY INFLATION. SOME OF IT HAS TO DO WITH ROBUST GROWTH. AND SOME OF IT HAS TO DO WITH THE FACT THAT THE BOND MARKET IS MORE UNCERTAIN ABOUT THEATER -- THE TRAJECTORY OF THE BUDGET DEFICIT AND GROWTH GLOBALLY. HAVE TO GET USED TO THE FACT THAT THE TERM PREMIUM IS GOING TO REVERT TO THE HISTORIC NORMS AND THAT MEANS THE 10 YEAR TREASURIES NOT GOING TO BE AT 2%. IT IS LIKELY TO HOVER AROUND 5%. TOM: THIS IS BEEN WONDERFUL. ANASTASIA AMOROSO, THANK YOU, AND CONGRATULATIONS THE QUALITY OF HER BULL MARKET CALLS ALONG THE WAY. SCARLET: SHE HAS BEEN CONSISTENT. TOM: I'M AFRAID. ANASTASIA: HOLD TIGHT. TOM: EARNINGS WILL BE THERE. THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR COMING IN TODAY. THIS IS GOING TO BE FASCINATING. I LOVE WHAT YOU ARE GOING TO TALK ABOUT HERE, SCARLET. SCARLET: COMING UP, THIS DISCOUNT OF LEAVING NEW YORK CITY FOR THE SUBURBS, IT IS NOT WHAT IT USED TO BE. WE HAVE GOT THE DETAILS ON THAT BECAUSE YOU MIGHT BE SURPRISED WHAT YOU ARE PAYING FOR NOW, ESPECIALLY WHEN YOU ARE SENDING KIDS TO SPORTS AND SUMMER CAMPS AND ALL OF THAT. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG MONEY." YOU IN THE SUBURBS? ANASTASIA: NO, IN THE CITY. SCARLET: MADE THE RIGHT CALL, THEN. ♪ SCARLET: "BLOOMBERG MONEY " IS YOUR NEW DESTINATION. OUR NEW DIGITAL HUB AT BLOOMBERG.COM/MONEY. WE SAW THE STORY ABOUT HOW THE NEW JERSEY DISCOUNT TO NEW YORK AND PHILADELPHIA IS GONE WITH THE COST OF LIVING IN THE SUBURBS STARTING TO OUTPACE. SHE JOINS US NOW. WHAT IS HAPPENING IN NEW JERSEY WERE COSTS ARE RISING MUCH HIGHER THAN NEW YORK CITY? >> SINCE 2021 AND DURING THE PANDEMIC WITH OUR HOUSING COSTS INCREASE. PEOPLE COULD WORK FROM ANYWHERE. THEY WANTED TO MOVE TO THE SUBURBS AND HAVE MORE SPACE UNDER COVID-19 LOCKDOWNS. WITH THE HOUSING PRICES EXPAND. EVERYONE CAME BACK, BOSSES WERE CALLING WORKERS BACK TO THE OFFICE. EVERYONE MOVED CLOSER TO THE HUDSON RIVER TO COMMUTE INTO THE CITY. OVERALL INFLATION HAS RISEN, NEW YORK CITY HAS GOTTEN MORE EXPENSIVE AND PEOPLE WHO MIGHT NOT HAVE MOVED TO THE SUBURB AND NOW COSTS WITH CHILDCARE ARE DRIVING UP THE COST OF RAISING A FAMILY IN NEW JERSEY. SCARLET: IT USED TO BE HOUSING WAS CHEAPER IN THE SUBURBS AND YOU GOT MORE BANG FOR YOUR BUCK, BUT THAT IS STARTING TO EQUALIZE. >> ESPECIALLY WITH INTEREST RATES WHERE THEY ARE AT. IF YOU COULD FIND A RENTAL IN NEW JERSEY, YOU MIGHT BE GETTING MORE SPACE BUT THE COST YOU MIGHT BE SAVING YOU ARE SPENDING ON COMMUTING BACK INTO THE CITY AND THE COST OF CHILDCARE. SCARLET: THIS CHART LOOKS COMPLICATED BUT ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW IS THE NEW JERSEY SUBURBS ARE SEEING FASTER GROWTH THAN OTHER PLACES. MOST OF THAT IS HUDSON COUNTY. TOM: I CANNOT SEE IT. [LAUGHTER] SCARLET: YOU HAVE BEEN A MANHATTAN DIEHARD. TOM: I HAVE BEEN A MANHATTAN DIEHARD THE WHOLE TIME BUT I HAVE THE LUXURY. I'M GOING TO GO TO YOUR TIME AT THE UNIVERSITY OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE BASIC IDEA OF, IS L.A. ANY DIFFERENT? I DON'T THINK SO. I THINK THIS IS NATIONWIDE. >> WE ARE SEEING IT ON A NATIONAL LEVEL. FAMILIES MOVE TO THE SUBURBS TO GET MORE SPACE AND SAVE A LITTLE BIT BUT BECAUSE THERE ARE SO MANY PEOPLE DOING THAT IT IS NOT CHEAPER ANYMORE. TOM: THE PUBLIC-SCHOOL BARGAIN IS BROKEN. >> I DO NOT KNOW IF IT IS THE PUBLIC-SCHOOL BARGAIN BUT IN NEW YORK CITY, WE ARE EXPANDING THE UNIVERSAL CHILDCARE PROGRAM. THAT HELPS WITH THE EARLY COST OF CHILDCARE. CHILDCARE IN NEW YORK CITY IS $5,000 CHEAPER THAN IT IS IN NEW JERSEY. TOM: I AM BLIND TO THE IMMENSE CHALLENGE TODAY IN PERSONAL FINANCE OF CHILDCARE. I HAD A GIFT. IT WAS WAY CHEAPER WHAT I WAS DOING IT. SCARLET: IT HAS BEEN A LONG TIME. NOT TO MENTION THE IMMIGRATION CRACKDOWN MEANS THE OPTIONS FOR CHILDCARE HAVE SLIMMED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. TOM: WHAT ELSE ARE YOU WORKING ON? THIS IS A HUGE THING YOU HAVE GOING. >> THE NEXT STORY, THINKING ABOUT, WHERE DO PEOPLE GO IF THEY WANT TO RAISE A FAMILY? IT SEEMS LIKE THERE IS NOWHERE TO HIDE. TOM: I DO NOT MEAN TO INTERRUPT BUT IT IS CRITICAL BECAUSE I HAVE SEEN 2, 3, 4 ARTICLES THIS WEEK ON THE STAGGERING DECLINE IN THE BIRTH RATE IN CHILDREN. WE ARE BECOMING LIKE ITALY. SCARLET: PEOPLE HAVE PETS INSTEAD OF KIDS. TOM: WE MAKE LIGHT OF IT BUT FROM A SOCIETAL STANDPOINT. >> FROM THE PARENTS I TALKED TO, A LOT OF PEOPLE WANT TO HAVE ONE OR TWO KIDS BUT BECAUSE PEOPLE CANNOT AFFORD IT UNTIL LATER, IT GETS PUSHED OUT. TOM: THE STORY OF MY LIFE. [LAUGHTER] LET'S MOVE ON! SCARLET: TO LIVE IN THE SUBURBS IS TO BE A SPORTS PARENT. AMONG SPORTS PARENTS, HOCKEY PARENTS ARE A UNIQUE BREED. 6:00 A.M. GAMES ON A WEEKEND, HAULING DEER TO RINKS IN MASSACHUSETTS ONLY TO REMEMBER YOU LEFT THE GLOVES AT HOME. I'M READING CONFESSIONS OF A HOCKEY PARENT. IT IS THIS MEMBER THAT FOLLOWS THE SEASON OF COMPETITIVE YOUTH. HOCKEY IN MASSACHUSETTS AND THEN YOU HAVE TRYOUTS IN APRIL. RICH RECOUNTS HOW HE LIVED VICARIOUSLY THROUGH HIS KIDS' ON ICE PERFORMANCE. TOM: I WANT TO DO THIS RIGHT NOW. BLOOMBERG NEWS HAS REPORTED RICH COHEN -- HE WROTE ONE OF THE DEFINITIVE BOATS ON THE CHICAGO BEARS -- MIKE DITKA AT 86 YEARS OLD, HE FORMED WHAT TOTH WAS FOR AN ENTIRE -- WHAT TOUGH WAS FO R AN ENTIRE GENERATION. SCARLET: HE SAID THIS IS WHAT I DO. TOM: SO MANY PEOPLE AFFECTED BY BIKE DITKA IN A WONDERFUL WAY. SCARLET: MEMORIALIZED BY "SNL" AS "DA BEARS." TOM: A SUBURB THAT IS LONG AND GONE. NO ONE WROTE ABOUT IT LIKE JOHN CHEEVER. THIS IS 1954. TWO LIFETIMES AGO AND NOBODY WROTE ABOUT -- IF YOU LOVED "MADMEN," THE EAST COAST OF "MADMEN" CAM 100% FROM THIS. SCARLET: BEAUTIFUL DEPRESSED PEOPLE LIVING IN THEIR HOMES IN THE SUBURBS. TOM: THERE WAS AN ELEMENT OF THAT TENSION, AND MAYBE IT WAS DEPRESSION, IT WAS MOSTLY THE POST-WORLD WAR II STRUGGLE. SCARLET: HE LIVED IN SCARBOROUGH ON HUDSON. AT ONE POINT HE RENTED A HOUSE PREVIOUSLY OCCUPIED BY RICHARD WHO WROTE "REVOLUTINARY ROAD." TOM: WHAT IS MAGICAL ABOUT THIS IS IT FLOWS RIGHT BACK TO "BLOOMBERG MONEY" AND FINANCE. IT WAS EASIER THEN TO BE AVERAGE OR BE ABOVE AVERAGE. NOW, WITH THE BUDGETS AND THE BILLS. SCARLET: IT IS CRAZY HARD. TOM: IT ISWAY -- IT IS WAY DIFFERENT. THANK YOU FOR JOINING US. FOR THE LATEST RECOMMENDATIONS FROM BLOOMBERG, SUBSCRIBE TO THE NEWSLETTER. COMING UP, THE KNICKS ARE PREPARING TO DEFEND THEIR CROWN AS THE PRESEASON UNFOLDS AND FANS ARE ALREADY CLAMORING FOR TICKETS. HOW MUCH ARE YOU WILLING TO PAY TO SEE THEM? SCARLET: IT IS AN EXPERIENCE. SCARLET: THERE IS JAYLAND BRUNSON. THIS IS "BLOOMBERG MONEY." TOM: "BLOOMBERG MONEY." I HAVE A NEW IPHONE. IT IS BORING. IT HAS A BORING CASE. RANDALL IS ROCKING. THAT IS A JALEN BRUNSON LOOK. RANDALL: THIS IS THE PHONE FROM LAST YEAR. SCARLET: RANDALL ALWAYS SURPRISES US. WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT JALEN BRUNSON AND THE KNICKS. FLAG FOOTBALL, DAVID SAID HIS 13-YEAR-OLD DAUGHTER PLAYS FLAG FOOTBALL. WE HAVE SEEN GROWTH OF FLIGHT FOOTBALL THAT THE NFL IS BEHIND. RANDALL: THE NFL HAS INVESTED $192 MILLION. A LOT OF THAT HAS GONE TO THE GRASSROOTS LEVEL. IT IS NO SURPRISE THAT SOME YOUNGER WOMEN ARE CHOOSING FLIGHT FOOTBALL OVER A SPORT LIKE SOFTBALL OR VOLLEYBALL. THE GATEWAY TO ENTRY IS A LOT LOWER. SCARLET: IT IS CHEAPER. RANDALL: IN REGULAR FOOTBALL YOU NEED THE PADS AND HELMET. TOM: YOU NEED A BEER IN YOUR LEFT HAND. AT LEAST THAT'S WHAT IT WAS WE WERE DOING IT. RANDALL: THE PERCEPTION OF FLIGHT FOOTBALL HAS CHANGED. I USED TO SAY WE ARE NOT PLAYING FLAG. IT IS FOR LESSER MEN. NOW THE NFL IS LEANING INTO ITS. THE WNBA IS BOOMING AND VALUATIONS ARE GROWING. CAN THE NFL BUILD AN INFRASTRUCTURE. WITH ITS ONLY GOOD AT THE GRASSROOTS LEVEL, HIGH SCHOOL AND EVENTUALLY COLLEGE FOR THIS TO BE A BOOMING BUSINESS? SCARLET: LET'S TALK ABOUT THE NBA AND JALEN BRUNSON. PEOPLE ARE GETTING EXCITED ABOUT THE FIRST GAME OF THE SEASON WHERE THE KNICKS WILL PLAY THE 76ERS. TOM HAS BEEN SCANNING THE PRICES. TOM: $33,000 DOWN CLOSE. RANDALL: IT DOES NOT SURPRISE ME. TOM: THIS IS NIRVANA. SCARLET: JALEN BRUNSON VERSUS LEBRON JAMES. RANDALL: AND EVERYONE ELSE. [LAUGHTER] THERE WAS SOME DRAMA BEHIND THE TICKETS WITH SEASON-TICKET HOLDERS AND A LOT OF PEOPLE SET THE PRICES ARE TOO HIGH. THE KNICKS REDID THE PROCESS -- $32,000 IS A LOT OF MONEY. THIS IS THE WORLD CHAMPION KNICKS. JAMES DOLAN WILL NOT GIVE US ANY DISCOUNT. TOM: I HAS EIGHT OTHER QUESTIONS. WE COULD GO FOR ANOTHER HOUR. SCARLET: I'M GRATEFUL I WENT TO SEE THE KNICKS BEFORE THEY WON AND I COULD ACTUALLY BUY THE TICKETS. TOM: ARE THEY DISTRACTED WITH THEIR SUCCESS? RANDALL: I DO NOT THINK THE PLAYERS ARE BUT JAMES DOLAN NOT PAYING SOME OF THESE PLAYERS WILL DISRUPT THE TEAM IF HE IS TRYING TO MAKE EVERYONE TAKE THE JALEN BRUNSON PAY CUT. SCARLET: THERE IS THE TENSION FOR THIS YEAR. RANDALL: THE KNICKS SAID THEY ARE PUTTING OUT UP STATEMENTS OF THEIR CUTTING OFF NEGOTIATIONS. SCARLET: I STOPPED WATCHING BECAUSE THE YANKEES ARE OUT. RANDALL WILLIAMS, THANK YOU SO MUCH. THAT DOES IT FOR "BLOOMBERG MONEY." BALANCE OF POWER IS UP. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND.