Trade AI and Oil, Not Policy or Politics: Market Analysis

Mark. Anthropic has dominated. You'll take. It's provided a relief rally just because they've confirmed that the IPO will go ahead. Obviously there's the base case expectation, which is why the relief rally is quite tepid given the losses we've seen recently. But that is what's kind of driven, the slight bounce in sentiment. There was a bit of speculation that given the IE concern over the past week, particularly funding around the sector, that there was a, you know, the small risk the a the anthropic IPO might be delayed. So the fact that it was confirmed that's going to go ahead has brought a bit of relief rally. We're not out of the woods yet. Now this isn't a bearish take. I think this week's really going to be decided by the the big tech earnings. The backdrop is the AI CapEx spending continues unabated. You see like Korean export figures, which uh, you know, our colleague Cameron Chris outlined is a good answer. Simon White outlined how it's a good leading indicator for kind of that AI spending. They continue to really be kind of going extremely strong. And we know from all the plans announced that people are still spending freely. We've seen meta increase their their stock issues to increase their spending. So that should drive the eye trade further. Uh, now what happened is with the earnings this week, people are going to concerned about how did it how are they valuing that anthropic trade. How does that mean a kind of, uh, on their expectations for revenues versus expenses for the year ahead? So I think earnings this week decide the binary moment we're at. Either we continue to trade. I angst that the concern around the credit at the the more speculative end of the spectrum starts going into the more developed end of the spectrum and creates a cost of funding, which really threatens the anthropic IPO or big tech. Earnings are wonderful. We get momentum into the anthropic IPO that provides a year end rally and the bubble bursting as a next year. Try it again. Right. Well that's what we're watching for the earnings story guy. What are you or I should say a market. What what are you watching for the central bank story. We got the ECB the fed on deck who can move the debt. Who can move the needle forward more this week. You know, like we got a lot of meetings on deck this week. But I don't think they're the big story. If the bond story is, is about really about oil markets, because obviously we've got oil markets right at the highs right now. There's massive speculation that will get further Middle East kind of escalation after the the elections in the US next week. That's what's really driving this mark. And we know it's not just about Brent crude. It's about all the kind of the end products out there. So really central banks are very marginal to see what kind of kind of, you know, we're going to ignore them. It's weird to have such a high lineup of central banks, and we're largely ignoring them. That's partly because the eye trade is all steroids are trade in oil. They're the two big drivers, not central banks. Okay, fine. A quick question there for midterms. And next week kind of where do you sense the market is kind of post the midterms. So we get a sweep. But that frees up Trump maybe to to return to the Iran story. Yeah I think that both central banks and midterms are going to take a lot of news time over the next week or so, but they are not going to be the big drives the year. And it is still the AI theme is most important with the volatility provided. But what happens around Iran and energy prices?