Trump Says US had ‘productive discussions’ With Iran, US Will Pause Attacks

If the president just publicly proclaimed that the US will not be striking Iran for at least the next four weeks or so, did he just give Iran permission to do some things in the next month without risk of retaliation? >> So, first, thanks for having me. It's always great to be here. Um, it's a bit unusual for a president to either signal that he will or will not attack uh over the course of a period of weeks. And so I would I would take all of those reports to some degree with a grain of salt. Um that being said, certainly Iran continues to ratchet up the attacks on uh oil tankers in the Straight of Hormuz. Uh that continues to disrupt traffic uh which has, you know, as as you noted, largely resumed uh something approximating normal levels, but at significant cost. Um and so yes, I I I think that Iran will and has been uh continuing to use these periods of calm to rebuild their capabilities. Um that being said, I do think the the big outstanding question for the president whether before or after the midterms is what does renewed uh military conflict achieve that uh diplomacy couldn't uh better achieve in the long term? The president has said repeatedly that Iran uh Jen is trying to to leverage the United States because of the electoral process that's underway and that's why he has said he's not concerned about the midterm elections. He's focused on this war trying to compartmentalize the two. Wouldn't there be an opportunity here? And what would the US do now that the president has said no more attacks until uh after the midterms? an opportunity to strike US targets in late October, the first couple of days of November to coincide with the midterm elections. That wouldn't be a surprise, would it? >> No, not at all. Uh that's a really good point. And in fact, you know, we have repeatedly seen throughout this conflict that uh Iran has a pretty nuanced understanding uh of the United States and certainly of our election cycle. And so I would not be at all surprised uh to see Iran trying to use this this period before the election to try to improve its negotiating leverage with the expectation that any sort of deal would have to come afterwards. >> Well, Jen, what about the other component to the president's post, which is the suggestion that the US and Iran are talking and are making progress? Have you heard anything that suggests that that may be true, that there are forward steps being taken? So we know that the lines of communication have been open um pretty much throughout this conflict and we certainly saw that on the margins of the UN General Assembly two weeks ago. So yes, I do think that uh from what I understand there continue to be indirect discussions taking place and I think all of that has to be taken in the context of at the end of the day as we've been saying you know for for seven eight months now there really is no military resolution uh to this long decadesl long uh conflict that really has to come from diplomacy. And so things like military escalation or or sanctions or economic pressure are intended to set the stage ultimately for a better negotiated outcome. And so I I'm glad to see the president acknowledging that. Um and that does seem to reinforce this idea that even if the US determines that additional military strikes are necessary at some point, that can't that can't be the strategy or the endgame in and of itself. Just looking back at the posts here, Jen, as we read this together, the president wrote, "We will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the midterm elections. Does that include Israel?" >> Well, that's a great question, Joe. Uh, and we, you know, saw the reporting over the last couple of days that renewed strikes may may include Israel. Um, I suspect that there continues to be close collaboration uh between the United States and Israel over uh over this. You know, there has been a lot of speculation uh that renewed strikes would focus specifically on Pickax Mountain uh and the nuclear facilities there. We know that the nuclear program is Israel's uh biggest concern when it comes to Iran. Um and so not in a position to speak for uh the Israeli government on this. Um but that is that is a relevant point that you make. >> There is reporting in Axios uh Kaye that President Trump spoke with uh not only Benjamin Netanyahu yesterday but it was their second call in days after barely speaking for weeks and it took place after Netanyahu held a meeting with his national security team about Iran uh according to an Israeli official. Not to try to connect the dots here, but you wonder, Jen, if there's something at work, would it would it behoove the United States to step back and let Israel take the lead? I >> think that Israel's capabilities um are, you know, and this is why the United States got involved last year during the 12-day war, um and why this was a joint operation uh in in February as well. Uh, Israel does have limitations on its capabilities and we know that the Iranian regime will hold the US culpable uh for any Israeli strike that takes place. Um, and so I I don't think it's an ideal outcome for Israel to act on its own. Uh, I think the US would bear the consequences of that decision regardless of whether they're they're actively involved in the operation or not. Um, and you note the the calls with Netanyahu and the meeting of of his national security team. I would also note the reports that President Trump uh has met over recent days uh with his national security team about this issue. And so there does seem to be a lot of activity in the background. Um hard to say whether his announcement today is the conclusion of that deliberative process or um or something else. >> Well, that's how the US is working uh with one ally and strikes against Iran. The US though decidedly is not participating in Saudi Arabia's current effort along with the coalition of uh in Yemen to combat the threat from the Houthis as the Houthis continually are are uh striking not just there but in Saudi Arabia including uh firing missiles at the international airport in Riad, killing uh some people. Jen, how are you watching this? And do you expect that at some point the US may need to get more directly involved to truly eliminate the threat that Houthis currently pose? So this is a really difficult needle for the for the president to thread. Um Saudi Arabia is a close ally. They have been obviously uh an integral part of um the kind of overarching uh activity against Iran um and are absolutely central to the president's um to the president's economic agenda for his second term. Um, at the same time, you know, with reports that US stockpiles are depleted, um, and with a conflict that continues, uh, to go on with no end in sight, I think the president rightly is concerned about opening up a second front. And so, you're left with a less than ideal situation where um, this continues to expand. The strikes today on on the airports um are horrific um, and really demonstrate the success of of Houthi targeting capabilities. Um and yet uh the idea I think for the president uh particularly with a war that is already so unpopular um of you know essentially opening up a second front um that is extremely problematic I think uh for for him going into this election. So uh I think that he will continue to try to stay out of this conflict but obviously the intensity of it is is continuing to escalate. >> Jen, I'm just curious how long we can maintain this posture in the straight. President writes 22 million barrels last night alone with not one barrel coming from or going to Iran. We're escorting ships and apparently it's been quite successful based on the analysis from any number of of research firms. We're pretty close to if not back to pre-war levels. How long can we do this and at what cost? >> Well, I I think that's the right answer. I mean, people have been very focused on the volume of of oil getting through and and first of all, I think it's important to point out that that's crude getting through refined products. uh derivatives uh those are not recovered as far as uh as far as being able to get those out of the straits. So we're talking about just crude oil um and it has largely recovered. But to your point, you know, insurance costs remain extraordinarily high. Um, one Middle Eastern leader told me last week that um, although you know prices are over $100 per barrel, his country is only getting about $6162 a barrel from that because of the elevated [music] cost um, of that transit. And so this is not back to normal and this is not uh economically sustainable.