US Suspends Visa Program for Tech Firms, Mideast Fighting Spurs Inflation Fears

I'M CAROL MASSAR, THIS IS STACEY VANEK SMITH, IN FOR TIM THIS WEEK. YOU GUYS GO WHERE WE GO. HOW MUCH DO YOU IN FACT, MUCH AS IT IS EVERY DAY? CAROL: YES, WE DO COME OFTENTIMES, MARKETS GET DISCUSSED AS IF THEY ARE A DIFFERENT UNIVERSE, BUT I LOVE WATCHING YOUR SHOW COME UP SO I'M VERY THRILLED TO BE HERE. CAROL: LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT. OUR NEXT GUEST WILL BE ON A LITTLE BIT LATER IN ONE OF OUR LATER HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME, GUESSTIMATE IS THERE IF THEY COME OCTOBER 8, 2026. VERY GOOD AFTERNOON, EVERYBODY VEERED ACROSS BLOOMBERG PLATFORMS, NEW YORK CITY, STOCKS PULLED BACK A LITTLE BIT. WE GOT THE RALLY IN OIL PRICES AGAIN. HIGHER OIL PRICES, MAY BE HIGHER INFLATION, AND THAT MEANS THE FED WILL HAVE TO RAISE RATES AGAIN. STACEY: YEAH. IT SEEMS LIKE THERE'S QUITE A FRAGILITY ON ANY GIVEN DAY WHEN SMALL THINGS CHANGES AND STOCKS AND BONDS GO NUTS, BUT IT REALLY FEELS LIKE THERE'S A LOT OF TENSION IN THE MARKETS. EVERYONE IS WATCHING SO CLOSELY. CAROL: YEAH. AND SOMETIMES SENSITIVE AND SOMETIMES THEY LOAD OFF, SO IT IS INTERESTING. WE WILL HAVE DR. ELLEN WALD, WE WILL TALK ENERGY MARKETS, TECH IN JUST A MOMENT, STEPPED OUT OF THE WHITE HOUSE, WALL STREET, THERE IS SO MUCH STUFF. THERE IS SO MUCH MORE WE CAN DO. STACEY: ABSOLUTELY, SHE KNOWS SO MUCH ABOUT THE FEDERAL RESERVE, HOW THE FEDERAL RESERVE'S ACTIONS CONNECT TO OUR LIVES. SHE'S A DELIGHT. CAROL: COMING FROM MIKE'S CONVERSATION, A K-SHAPED ECONOMY, WE WILL TALK ABOUT THAT. AND THEN WHO KNEW, FLAG FOOTBALL APPARENTLY HAVING A COMEBACK. WE'LL GET INTO THAT. FIRST UP, WE WANT TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT WHAT IS GOING ON WHEN IT COMES TO THIS TEXT SEEN. WE KNOW PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS BEEN CALLING IT THE NEW GOLDEN AGE SUMMIT IN WASHINGTON, GETTING DETAILS, WE ARE MONITORING THAT, I SHOULD SAY. THAT'S GET TO OUR MICHAEL SHEPARD TO SEE WHAT HE IS HEARING, AND HE'S IN THE BLOOMBERG NEWS WASHINGTON BUREAU. MIKE, GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE WITH STACEY AND ME. WE UNDERSTAND ELON MUSK IS SUPPOSED TO BE THERE, JENSEN HUANG OF NVIDIA. WHAT DO WE KNOW AT THIS POINT? MICHAEL: WELL, PRESIDENT TRUMP IS AT THE INSTITUTE OF PEACE RIGHT NOW, DELIVERING REMARKS, AND HE IS TRYING TO ONCE AGAIN PUT HIS STANCE ON TECH AND SCIENCE HERE IN THE U.S. IF YOU WERE THINKING, WAIT, DIDN'T WE JUST HAVE A GOLDEN AGE OF AMERICA EVENT HERE IN WASHINGTON? YES, WE DEDICATE IT WAS JUST LESS WE GOT THE MELON AUDITORIUM, WHERE THEY THOUGHT A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE IN PARTICULAR. THIS EVENT TODAY IS FOCUS OF THE BIT MORE ON SCIENCE AND RESEARCH, BUT WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THE SAME USUAL SUSPECTS COME AS YOU JUST MENTIONED, CAROL COME AT THIS EVENT, JENSEN HUANG WILL BE THERE, ELON MUSK, LISA SU, AND THEY WILL BE GETTING SCIENCE METALS FROM THE PRESIDENT FOR THE CONTRIBUTIONS IN THESE ROLES LEADING THESE COMPANIES, WHICH ARE REALLY AT THE CUTTING EDGE IN A LOW VOICE, WHEN IT COMES TO SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HERE IN THE U.S. AND THE COMPANIES ARE ALSO KICKING IN SOME CONTRIBUTIONS OF COMPUTING POWER TO FEDERAL GOVERNMENT INITIATIVES. I THINK A TOTAL OF ABOUT 2.4 BILLION DOLLARS IN COMMITMENTS ALTOGETHER. WE ARE ALSO SEEING THE PRESIDENT ANNOUNCING SOME OTHER INITIATIVES AIMED AT BOOSTING RESEARCH HERE IN THE U.S. SO THIS IS KIND OF A DAYLONG EVENT. TRUMP IS NOT THE ONLY FEATURED GUEST AND SPEAKER, BUT HE CERTAINLY IS THE HIGHLIGHT. STACEY: THESE ARE A LOT OF THE SAME PEOPLE WE SAW AT THE PRESIDENT'S INAUGURATION. I WONDER IF THIS CEREMONY SERVES THE SAME PURPOSE, OR IF YOU SEE A BIG DIFFERENCE? MICHAEL: WELL, THIS IS NOT ONLY LIKE THE INAUGURATION BUT LIKE A LOT OF OTHER EVENTS IN WASHINGTON, WHERE TRUMP HAS SUMMONED THE TITANS IN SILICON VALLEY TO REALLY SURROUND HIM AND BE WITH HIM. HE LIKES HAVING THAT ENTOURAGE OF BUSINESS LEADERS, AND TO REALLY GIVE A SEAL OF APPROVAL TO WHAT HIS ECONOMIC POLICIES ARE DOING. AND THEY ARE INTERTWINED, OF COURSE, WITH THE TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. THEY HAVE MADE AN ALL IN BET IN THE ADMINISTRATION ON ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, AS A DRIVER OF JOB GROWTH, INVESTMENTS HERE IN THE U.S. SO, HAVING THAT ASSOCIATION WITH THE SILICON VALLEY ELITE IS VERY IMPORTANT TO DONALD TRUMP, AND WE ALSO SAW HIM BRING A LOT OF THE SAME FIGURES TOGETHER FOR LUNCH AND JUST LAST WEEK AT THE WHITE HOUSE, WHERE THEY TALK ABOUT AI AND A ICC. CAROL: HAVING SAID THAT, JUST BEFORE WE GO, MIKE, WE WILL TALK ABOUT IT LATER ON IN THE 3:00 HOUR, BUT THE U.S. SUSPENDING A VISA PROGRAM FOR TECH FIRMS, AND THAT INCLUDES MICROSOFT, WHICH I THINK HAS HAD SOME TIME IN THE WHITE HOUSE AS WELL. SO, BIG DEAL? IT IS NOT THE FIRST TIME IT HAS BEEN TARGETED. MICHAEL: WELL, THIS PROGRAM HAS BEEN UNDER SCRUTINY, AND THIS IS AN INITIATIVE THAT ALLOWS COMPANIES WITH THE WORKERS ON H ONE B VISAS TO START MOVING THEM TOWARD PERMANENT RESIDENCY STATUS. IT ALLOWS THEM TO SPONSOR THEM FOR IT. BUT IT HAS BEEN TARGETED BY THE ADMINISTRATION AS SOMETHING THAT IS RIFE WITH ABUSES, AND IT ALSO DID FAVOR AMERICAN WORKERS, IF YOU HEAR THE VICE PRESIDENT JD VANCE AND HIS RESPONSE EARLIER TODAY. IT DOES CREATE A BIT OF AN AWKWARD MOMENT, CAROL, BECAUSE YES WHO WAS AT THIS GOLDEN AGE EVENT TODAY, SUCH A NADELLA, WHO WAS SET TO RECEIVE A METAL FROM THE PRESIDENT. CAROL: AWKWARD! "HERE'S A METAL COMMENDED BY THE WAY, WHILE WE ARE AT IT." WE ARE LIVING IN EXTREME TIMES. MIKE, THANK YOU. A LOT FOR YOU GUYS GOING ON, TO KEEP ON TOP OF. MICHAEL SHEPARD, HE IS THE SENIOR EDITOR FOR TECHNOLOGY AND STRATEGIC INDUSTRIES FOR BLOOMBERG. WE COULD TALK ENERGY MARKETS, DON'T YOU THINK? STACEY: YEAH. THAT'S THE BIG STORY TODAY FOR SURE. CAROL: YOU SOME FRIEND GOING ABOVE 05 A BARREL, SO THIS IS HAPPENING AS FRANKISH -- FRESH TANKER TRUCKS BY YVONNE BRATTON FLOWS IN THE MIDDLE EAST COME ADDING TO WORRIES OF A RISING INFLATION AROUND THE WORLD. INTERESTING MOVES BY SAUDI ARABIA. LET'S GET TO IT, DR. ELLEN WALD, I SAY IT A LOT, BUT IT IS TRUE, SHE'S A GO TO FOR US ON GLOBAL ENERGY MARKETS, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL, AUTHOR OF "SAUDI INC.," BACK WITH US, JOINING US ON THIS THURSDAY. ELLEN, PRICES ARE UP AGAIN. PRICES HAVE SURGED, AS YOU KNOW, AS I GLOBAL REFINERY CAPACITY REMAINS TROUBLED BY THE WAR IN IRAN, UKRAINIAN STRIKES TO RUSSIAN ADVISORS. THERE ARE THINGS GOING ON, STORMS GOING ON. IS THIS GOING TO CONTINUE, THE VOLATILITY? ARE WE GOING TO SEE SPIKES, THEN PULLBACKS, THEN SPIKES? IT IS JUST GOING TO KEEP CONTINUING? DR. WALD: I THINK RIGHT NOW WE ARE IN THE PATTERN OF SPIKES AND THEN SOME PULL BACK. IT REALLY DEPENDS ON WHAT IS GOING ON. WE SAW A SPIKE WHEN THE SAUDI PETROL MINE WAS HIT AND OFF-LINE FOR A LITTLE BIT. THIS SPIKE IS REALLY EVIDENT OF, YOU KNOW, THERE A BIG HURRICANE COMING RIGHT NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HIT THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. BUT A LOT OF PRODUCTION IN THE GOLF HAD TO BE SHUT DOWN BECAUSE THIS WEATHER EVENT HAS BEEN A TEST. WHILE THIS IS A TEMPORARY SET DOWN -- SHUT DOWN, WE ARE LOOKING AT A LOSS OF NEARLY -- AT LEAST HALF BILLION A DAY OF PRODUCTION. NOT TO MENTION SIGNIFICANT AND IMPORTANT REFINERIES THAT ARE CLOSE BY. IT LOOKS LIKE THE STORM IS NOT GOING TO ACTUALLY HIT THE REFINING CENTER IN LOUISIANA AND ALABAMA, BUT STILL, THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT ISSUE, WHEN IT IS SUCH A TIGHT SITUATION. REMEMBER, WHEN THIS CONFLICT WITH IRAN STARTED, WE WERE AT A POINT WHERE OIL STOCKS WERE HIGH. MSTR'S WERE FILLED TO THE BRIM. WE NOW DO NOT HAVE THAT CUSHION. THE BASELINE PRICE FOR OIL IS NOW HIGHER, AND THEREFORE EVERY CURRENT EVENT THAT POTENTIALLY THREATENS THE SUPPLY OR DOES THREATEN SUPPLY, EVEN TEMPORARILY, IS GOING TO CAUSE THESE PRICE HIKES TO LEVELS THAT ARE PRETTY SERIOUS, AT LEAST IN TERMS OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. STACEY: DO YOU SEE ANY PATH TOWARD OIL PRICES ACTUALLY COMING DOWN AT THIS POINT, OR ARE WE PRETTY MUCH LOCKED INTO HIGH OIL PRICES FOR THE END OF THE YEAR? A LOT OF COMPANIES SEEM TO BE PRICING THIS AND AS IF IT IS ALREADY A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. DR. WALD: SO I DO THINK WE ARE DEFINITELY LOCKED INTO A HIGHER LEVEL. WHEN WE ARE TALKING ABOUT THOUGH OIL PRICES VERSUS LIKE $60 A BARREL -- WE ARE NOT REALLY TALKING $40 A BARREL HERE, BUT, YOU KNOW, I THINK WE ARE KIND OF IN THIS RANGE. ARE WE GOING TO SEE A SPIKE, YOU KNOW, WELL ABOVE 00? IT IS ACTUALLY A POSSIBILITY, BUT I DO THINK IN A RANGE NOW, A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF TIME, THAT EVEN IF YOU DO SEE FLOWS BECOMING NORMALIZED, I KNOW THERE'S A LOT OF TALKS THAT WE ARE SEEING MORE FLOW OF OIL COMING OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND SOMEHOW THIS COULD BE, YOU KNOW, SYNONYMOUS WITH NORMALIZATION. THAT IS NOT THE CASE. IT IS STILL VERY DANGEROUS AND COSTLY TO GET OIL OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST COME OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF. JUST BECAUSE YOU HIT A PARTICULAR NUMBER FOR A CERTAIN, YOU KNOW, TIME DOES NOT MEAN THINGS ARE NORMALIZED. YOU'VE ALSO EXHAUSTED COMMERCIAL STOCKS AND SPR'S, SO FOR A WHILE AFTER, WE ARE GOING TO SEE HIGHER DEMAND AS PARTICULARLY THE STRATEGIC RESERVES NEED TO BE REFILLED. CAROL: WHEN THING I WANT TO ASK YOU, ELLEN, SAUDI ARABIA AND TALKS WITH CUSTOMERS TO OFFER OIL LOADING NEXT YEAR OUTSIDE THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ AND LONG-TERM CONFLICT SPACE SO THEY ARE FORMULATING A SYSTEM THAT THE KINGDOM HAS BEEN USING DURING THE WAR WITH IRAN, AS IT PUSHES FOR GREATER MARKET SHARE. I'M JUST WONDERING, ARE THEY SLOWLY BUT SURELY FIGURING OUT A WAY TO GET COMPLETELY AROUND THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ? DOES THAT MEAN LONGER TERM, IRAN LOSES THAT INCREDIBLE WEAPON OF KIND OF BRINGING THE WORLD TO ITS KNEES, BECAUSE EVERYONE IS FIGURING OUT OTHER ALTERNATE ROUTES? IS THAT EVEN REAL? DR. WALD: SO, I DON'T THINK WE ARE NECESSARILY TALKING ABOUT A PIPELINE THAT IS GOING TO OPEN. I THINK WHAT THEY ARE SEEING IS THAT DURING THE TIME PERIOD OF WHERE THE EAST-WEST PIPELINE WAS DOWN, THEY DID A LOT MORE LOADING FROM THEIR PERSIAN GULF PORTS, AND THEY WERE SUCCESSFUL AT GETTING OIL OUT TO THEIR CUSTOMERS. TYPICALLY, ASIAN BUYERS OF SAUDI OIL LOAD IN THE PERSIAN GULF AND THEN THEY MEET. A LOT OF THESE TANKERS ARE UNWILLING TO TAKE THE RISKS TO GO INTO THE PERSIAN GULF. THE INSURANCE COSTS ARE VERY HIGH. THE RISKS OF A VERY LARGE TANKER GETTING HIT ARE MUCH HIGHER, AND THE RISKS ARE MUCH GREATER. SO ESSENTIALLY WHAT ARAMCO IS SAYING IS WE WILL WORK OUT A WAY TO GET THIS OIL TO YOU, EITHER USING OUR OWN SHIPS OR THROUGH THIS VERY SUCCESSFUL KIND OF SHUTTLE SERVICE THAT IS RUNNING, WHERE SMALLER SHIPS FILLED WITH OIL, AND THEN THEY GO UNDER DARK, UNDERCOVER, WITH U.S. NAVAL SUPPORT, OUT OF THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, OUT OF THE PERSIAN GULF, AND IN THE TRANSCRIPT THAT OIL TO LARGER SHIPS THAT ARE WAITING. ESSENTIALLY WHAT ARAMCO IS SAYING IS YEAH, THIS IS A VERY RISKY THING WE DID NOT NECESSARILY WANT TO DO A LOT OF, BUT, YOU KNOW, WE THINK WE CAN PULL THIS OFF, WE CAN PROMISE SOME KIND OF, YOU KNOW, RELIABILITY TO OUR CUSTOMERS THIS WAY. AND THAT IS WHY THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT THIS. IT ALSO SENDS SIGNAL THAT ARAMCO DOES NOT NECESSARILY THINK THIS CONFLICT WILL END, YOU KNOW, IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF MONTHS. THEY ARE LOOKING AT THIS NOW IS A LONG TERM ISSUE THAT THEY NEED TO SIMPLY DEVELOP MORE SUSTAINABLE WORKAROUNDS TO. CAROL: I THOUGHT ABOUT THAT, TO, WHEN PRESIDENT TRUMP CAME OUT AND SAID THE U.S. IS NOT GOING TO ATTACK IRAN BEFORE THE MIDTERM. IT DOES NOT SOUND LIKE A PAUSE, LIKE WE MIGHT STILL DO ATTACK, BUT WE WILL PUT THAT ON HOLD UNTIL WE GET FROM THIS ELECTION. ANYWAY. DR. WALD: YEAH. CAROL: I'M WONDERING, IS THIS VERY SIGNIFICANT? STACEY: OR IS IT JUST THAT THINGS ARE SO INTENSE THAT ANYTHING WILL SPARK A LOT OF VOLATILITY? DR. WALD: YEAH. I THINK IT SPARKS A LOT OF THE VOLATILITY. I THINK THE MARKETS HAVE ALSO LEARNED TO TAKE EVERYTHING TRUMP SAYS LIKE THIS WITH A GRAIN OF SALT. SO HE COULD CHANGE HIS MIND NEXT WEEK. [LAUGHTER] CAROL: ALL RIGHT, YOU WERE REALLY QUICK. I DID NOT EXPECT THAT. WHAT DO YOU THINK THAT CAUGHT OUR ATTENTION, SAUDI TYCOONS, A BUNCH OF THEM ARE BUILDING A $9 BILLION FORTUNE OFF WATER INSTEAD OF OIL. ARE WE STILL IN BACK, WE KNOW THE MIDDLE EAST UNDERSTANDS THE FOSSIL FUELS, THEY ARE LIMITED, FOLKS, AND WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO FIGURE THINGS OUT. IS THAT STILL TRUE, ELLEN? DR. WALD: I THINK IT IS MORE THAT THEY UNDERSTAND, YES, FOSSIL FUELS ARE VERY IMPORTANT, BUT WATER IS EXTRAORDINARILY IMPORTANT RESOURCE, PARTICULARLY IN THAT REGION. AND IF YOU CAN CREATE FRESH WATER, IF YOU CAN BRING FRESHWATER, THEN YOU CAN MAKE MONEY, BECAUSE THEY NEED THAT FOR EVERYTHING, TOO. CAROL: JUST ASK IRAN, RIGHT? THAT IS CERTAINLY COME UP. ELLEN, THANK YOU SO MUCH, DR. ELLEN WALD, SENIOR FELLOW AT THE ATLANTIC COUNCIL. COMING UP NEXT, WE WILL CHECK IN WITH FRIEND OF THE FAMILY BLOOMBERG OPINION COLUMNIST, ANYTHING YOU WANT TO ASK HER, CLAUDIA SAHM. CHARLIE: IT IS 2:21 ON WALL STREET. WE DO CHECK MARKETS ALL DAY LONG HERE AT BLOOMBERG. LOOKING AT LOSSES FOR THE U.S. EQUITY MARKET, OIL PUSHING HIGHER, A SELLOFF IN CHIPMAKERS, SENDING STOCKS LOWER. IN THE NEWS REPORT ON OPENAI'S REVENUE INTENSIFIES WORRIES THAT THE AI SPENDING SPREE IS BECOMING HARDER TO JUSTIFY. THE S&P CURRENTLY DOWN 44, A DROP OF .6%. DOW INDUSTRIALS LOWER BY 69, A DROP OF .1%. THE NASDAQ 100 -- THE NASDAQ COMPOSITE A DROP OF 1.3%. THE PHILADELPHIA STOCK EXT EXCHANGE SEMICONDUCTOR INDEX DOWN 3%. 10-YEAR, 5.2 3%. THE 30-YEAR, 5.61%. SPOT GOLD MEANWHILE, UP .3%, $4124 THE OZ. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE BACK ABOVE 92 DOLLARS A BARREL. A BARREL OF BRENT BEGAN THE DAY ABOUT 04, CURRENTLY TRADING AT 04 -- ABOVE 04, CURRENTLY TRADING AT 04.56. GOLDMAN SACHS SAID TO ON RANK A BONUS, THE BIGGEST THE FIRM HAS EVER AWARDED. ABOUT 20 EXECUTIVE'S ARE IN LINE FOR EQUITY AWARDS THAT WILL BE FINALIZED LATER THIS MONTH AND EXCEED $500 MILLION OF THE CURRENT SHARE PRICE. CEO DAVID SOLOMON IS IN LINE FOR THE BIGGEST CUT, RAKING IN MORE THAN 00 MILLION OF THAT BONUS POOL. GOLDMAN SACHS TRADING LOWER TODAY, DOWN BY 1%. RECAPPING, S&P DOWN .6%, WTI UP 4.1%, $91.87 A BARREL. I'M CHARLIE PELLETT. CAROL MASSAR AND STACEY VANEK SMITH, THAT IS A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: THANK YOU SO MUCH. CLAUDIA SAHM, NO DOUBT ABOUT IT, SHE IS A GO TO EVERY TIME THERE'S JOBS DATA AND CERTAINLY WHEN THERE'S A MONTHLY'S JOBS -- A MONTHLY JOBS REPORT. SHE'S GOT THE SAHM RULE, WE FOLLOW IT, INDICATION OF A RECESSION. IT IS SUPER IMPORTANT. SHE HAS GOTTEN INCREDIBLE BACKGROUND. STACEY: OH, YEAH. A VERY HUMANS LIKE THEM EVEN THOUGH HER CAREER IS IN THE FED FROM A VERY HUMAN SIDE OF THE FAN, UNEMPLOYMENT, THE THINGS THAT IMPACT US. CAROL: THIS IS WHY WE WANT TO DO A DEEP DIVE WITH HER, BECAUSE WE TALK A LOT HERE AT "BLOOMBERG BUSINESSWEEK DAILY" ABOUT THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY. SHE IS THE FOUNDER OF SAHM CONSULTANT, REGULAR BLOOMBERG CONTRIBUTOR, SAC MENTION, SESSION CHIEF AT THE FEDERAL RESERVE, SHE ALSO WORKED FOR 10 YEARS ON THE ECONOMIC FORECAST GROUP. SHE WAS A SENIOR ECONOMIST AT THE COUNCIL OF ECONOMIC ADVISORS. THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU. I'M HONORED. I LISTEN TO YOU WHEN YOU ARE ON "SURVEILLANCE." I LOVE WHAT YOU SAY ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET. WE REALLY WANT TO DIG INTO SO MUCH MORE. WHAT IS YOUR READ RIGHT NOW ON THE U.S. LABOR MARKET? WE ARE JUST COMING OFF A MONTHLY JOBS REPORT. WE GOT WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS TODAY FEARED WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW TODAY? CLAUDIA: I THINK IT'S GREAT WHEN PEOPLE TALK ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET, THEY POINT TO STABILITY, TO BALANCE, I THINK THAT IS THE RIGHT WAY TO TALK ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET, BIG PICTURE, BUT I AM SO STRUCK AS THE REAL DIFFERENCES IN THE LABOR MARKET, AND SOME OF THEM ARE REALLY UNUSUAL. THIS LOW HIGHER, LOW FIRE ECONOMY IS GOING STRONG, RIGHT? TWO, THREE YEARS OF THIS, WHERE, AGAIN, WE SAW JOBLESS CLAIMS WERE UNDER 200,000 LAST WEEK. THAT IS VERY LOW. AND THE AVERAGE OF PAYROLL THE LAST THREE MONTHS, 50,000. THAT IS LOW HIRE. AND IT IS NOT NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WITH THE ECONOMY EXPANDING. WE WOULD NORMALLY HAVE A LOT MORE HIRING RIGHT NOW, GIVEN ALL THE CONSUMER SPENDING GROWTH FROM INVESTMENT GROWTH. SO I FIND IT PUZZLING CAN I THINK I WILL PUT IT REALLY WELL WHEN HE CALLED IT A "CURIOUS KIND OF BALANCE," CURIOUS IN THE SENSE THAT IT SHOULD RAISE A LOT OF QUESTIONS, AND WE SHOULD KEEP A REALLY CLOSE EYE ON THIS. AND REALLY, YOU KNOW, I WAS SPEAKING TO A GROUP OF COLLEGE STUDENTS IN DULUTH, MINNESOTA, IN MY HEART GOES OUT TO THOSE PEOPLE, GETTING READY TO START THEIR CAREERS WITH THE HIRING RATES SO LOW. I WORRY FOR THEM, BUT I ALSO WORRY ABOUT WHERE WE ARE 5, 10 YEARS NOW, IF WE DON'T HAVE STUDENTS COMING OUT AND GETTING INTO THEIR CAREERS RIGHT OFF THE BAT. I THINK WE COULD PAY FOR THIS STABILITY OVER THE LONG RUN, EVEN THOUGH WE ARE IN A PRETTY GOOD PLACE RIGHT NOW. CAROL: I'VE BEEN CURIOUS, GEORGE ALWAYS GOT INTO TROUBLE, SO THAT MAKES ME A LITTLE NERVOUS. ONE THING I DO WANT TO ASK, AND OUR TEAM IS PREPARING, THINKING ABOUT WHAT WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT WITH YOU, BECAUSE WE TALK SO MUCH ABOUT THE K-SHAPED ECONOMY. WHAT IS HAPPENING WITH REAL WAGES? FOLKS ARE LIKE, MARKET IS HIGH, RECORD ECONOMY, DOING WELL, CORPORATE EARNINGS DOING WELL. I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE PROBLEM IS, WEALTH IS GROWING. AND YET I KNOW FROM CONVERSATIONS IN THE NEWSROOM, A LOT OF FOLKS ARE STRUGGLING, EVEN FOLKS YOU THINK WOULD BE OK. SO COME OF WAGES, WHAT WE NEED TO KNOW, AND WHAT DO YOU FIND INTERESTING WHEN IT COMES TO WAGES? CLAUDIA: YEAH. SO, REAL WAGES ARE ONE I THINK IT'S HARD FOR PEOPLE TO IT IF A FIGHT WITH AND FOR GOOD REASON. MOST PEOPLE, THEIR JOBS COME IF THEY GET A WAGE INCREASE, IT IS MAYBE ONCE A YEAR, SOMETIMES WHEN THEY TAKE A NEW JOB, THEY WILL GET A BUMP IN THEIR WAGES. THAT WAGE PATH IS PRETTY SET. PRICES CAN GO UP AT ANY POINT IN TIME, RIGHT? GASOLINE WENT UP A LOT EARLIER THIS YEAR OUT OF NOWHERE. IT'S NOT LIKE BOSSES SHOWED UP AND SAID COME ON GOING TO RAISE YOUR WAGES TO MATCH THIS, RIGHT? THAT'S NOT HOW THE SYSTEM WORKS. IT'S ONE FEINT WHERE IT CAN TAKE TIME TO ADJUST. WE SEE IN THIS LABOR MARKET THAT IS KIND OF IN BALANCE. WORKERS DO NOT HAVE THE UPPER HAND IN THIS LABOR MARKET, NOT LIKE, YOU KNOW, COMING OUT OF THE PANDEMIC WHEN THERE WERE LABOR SHORTAGES. WE SEE BOTH WAGE GROWTH HAS MODERATED, DIFFERENT MEASURES OF SHOWING IS SLOWING, SOME KIND OF STABILIZING, BUT IT REALLY HAS NOT BEEN HEATING UP. THE THING I LIKE TO LOOK FOR TO SEE WHO HAS GOT THE UPPER HAND IN THE LABOR MARKET IS THE QUICK TRADE, THE PEOPLE WHO VOLUNTARILY LOSE A JOB, IT IS TYPICALLY FOR ANOTHER, BETTER JOB, IN THE QUICK TRADE IS LOW RIGHT NOW, TOO. THE WORKERS DO NOT HAVE THE UPPER HAND, AND THE WAY THE UPPER HAND WORKS IS YOU CAN GET A BETTER PAYCHECK. SO THAT IS JUST NOT WHAT WE ARE SEEING OVERALL. SO, YOU KNOW, BUT IT HAS REALLY BEEN THIS YEAR ON THE AFFORDABILITY, IT HAS BEEN MORE OF THE INFLATION PICKS BACK UP, LIKE, THAT HAS REALLY BEEN THE PRESSURE POINT, AND PEOPLE HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO ADJUST BY GETTING BIGGER PAYCHECKS. STACEY: WHAT ABOUT AI? WHAT KIND OF A WORLD OF DO WE SEE THAT PLAYING IN THE LABOR MARKET? YOU MENTIONED A WEIRD MOMENT, A LOT OF COMPANIES ARE INVESTING A TON OF MONEY INTO AI, AND PEOPLE ARE BLAMING THAT FOR THE LOW HIRE. HOW IMPORTANT A FACTOR DO YOU SEE THAT IN THE LOW HIGHER, LOW FIRE SITUATION? CLAUDIA: SO, IN TERMS OF AI, WE ARE VERY MUCH AT THE FRONT END OF IT AFFECTING THE LABOR MARKET. I MEAN, WE GET, YOU KNOW, NO NUMBERS ON REVENUES, OF THE FRONTIER LABS. IT IS JUST SHOWING THAT USAGE IS MOVING A LOT SLOWER THAN THE TECHNOLOGY, RIGHT? USAGE IS NOT WIDESPREAD ACROSS BUSINESSES. IF THEY DON'T HAVE IT FIGURED OUT, HOW TO, YOU KNOW, MAKE THIS, LIKE, CREATE EFFICIENCIES, WELL THAT IT IS DEFINITELY HARDER TO LAY OFF WORKERS. I THINK IT PROBABLY IS AFFECTING HIRING ON SOME MARGINS, YOU KNOW, THERE'S A WHOLE RANGE OF STUDIES, IT'S A REAL MIXED BAG. BUT I THINK ENTRY-LEVEL WORKERS ARE UNDER PRESSURE, PARTICULARLY ONE IN AREAS WHERE THE AI TECHNOLOGY REALLY FITS INTO THE KIND OF TASKS THEY WOULD BE DOING. BUT EVEN THEY ARE, THERE ARE SOME CASES OF BUSINESSES RIGHT NOW TRYING TO FIGURE OUT AI, SO HIRING PEOPLE OUT OF COLLEGE TO MAKE IT WORK, AND THEN THE JOBS WILL GO AWAY. BUT I THINK WE ARE AT THE PLACE WHERE IT IS NOT AN AGGREGATE, BUT I DO THINK THIS LOW HIRE RERATE, THERE HAS TO BE A -- LOW HIRE RERATE, THERE HAS TO BE A PIECE OF IT THAT GOES TO UNCERTAINTY THAT BUSINESSES HAVE. EVEN IF THEY HAVE DEMAND GROWTH, SERVICES AND GOODS, THAT COULD BE BECAUSE POLITICS AND GEOPOLITICS ARE CONFUSING. IT COULD ALSO BE BECAUSE WE HAVE THIS NEW TECHNOLOGY, AND MAYBE WE’RE NOT GOING TO NEED AS MANY WORKERS, AND MOST BUSINESSES DON’T WANT TO BRING PEOPLE ON, ON BOARD THEM, TRAIN THEM, AND THEN BE LIKE, ACTUALLY WE DON’T NEED YOU, AND LET THEM GO. SO THERE PROBABLY IS A PIECE OF IT, BUT I THINK A.I. PROBABLY FITS MORE IN THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY AS OPPOSED TO A.I. HAS TAUGHT BUSINESSES HOW TO AUTOMATE AWAY WORKERS. I DON’T THINK THAT’S WHAT’S HAPPENING, AT LEAST NOT YET. STACEY: BRACE YOURSELF, I’M GOING TO ASK ABOUT THE BOND MARKET. CAROL BROUGHT UP AFFORDABILITY. I THINK THAT’S JUST ONE OF THE HUGE ISSUES WE’VE SEEN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF YEARS, ESPECIALLY WITH OIL PRICES RISING. YOU’RE TALKING ABOUT THE STRANGE HIRING ENVIRONMENT AND A.I. THE OTHER THING WE’VE BEEN HEARING ABOUT ALL YEAR IS INTEREST RATES, THE BOND MARKET, THESE KIND OF BIG, CEREBRAL CONCEPTS AND HUGE MARKETS THAT DON’T FEEL VERY PERSONAL. HOW IS THAT IMPACTING CONSUMERS? CLAUDIA: AS WITH THE LABOR MARKET, IT COMES DOWN TO WHO ARE YOU? WHAT’S IN THIS PROCESS? I DO THINK THAT THESE HIGHER INTEREST RATES, AND WE’VE SEEN RISE THIS YEAR, BUT FRANKLY, INTEREST RATES HAVE BEEN RISING SINCE WE CAME OUT OF THE PANDEMIC. SOME OF THAT IS GETTING BACK TO MORE NORMAL. REALLY LOW INTEREST RATES ARE NOT A GOOD TIME FOR AN ECONOMY. SO I DON’T THINK THE LEVEL OF INTEREST RATES THAT WE HAVE RIGHT NOW IS A CRUSHING LEVEL. THE INCREASE OVER THE PAST YEAR HAS BEEN PRETTY SWIFT. SO IN TERMS OF PEOPLE ADJUSTING, PEOPLE WHO ARE BORROWING, MAYBE THEY’RE USING THEIR CREDIT CARDS TO KIND OF MAKE IT ALL WORK, YOU KNOW, CARRYING SOME DEBT THAT WAY. THEY ARE AFFECT BY HIGHER INTEREST RATES. PEOPLE WHO WERE ON THE FENCE ABOUT, MAYBE IT’S TIME TO BUY A HOME, LIKE, THIS HAS BEEN A TOUGH PIECE. SO I THINK ONE WHERE, IF YOU’RE BORROWING, THIS REALLY DOES, YOU KNOW, HIT INTO SPENDING. WHEN FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH IS LIKE, OH, RAISING INTEREST RATES, THIS IS GOING TO BE A LOW COST, IT MAY BE LOW COST FOR THE ECONOMY AS A WHOLE, BUT IT IS DEFINITELY A COST FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE TRYING TO MAKE IT WORK BY DOING SOME BORROWING, AND THEY’RE THE ONES WHOSE DEMAND IS GOING TO GET PULLED BACK AND HOPEFULLY CONTAIN INFLATION. HIGHER INTEREST RATES CAN BE GOOD FOR PEOPLE WHO HAVE HOLDING INTEREST RATES, HOLDING INTEREST-BEARING ASSETS. IT’S NOT LIKE EVERYBODY LOSES FROM HIGHER INTEREST RATES. BUT I THINK ON NET, IN THE CONSUMER SPACE, IT PROBABLY IS STILL, IT CREATES SOME RESTRICTION, PUTS SOME DRAG ON IT, AND IT COULD PULL OVER INTO THE LABOR MARKET TO THE EXTENT IT HOLDS BACK BUSINESSES FROM HIRING. CAROL: I FEEL LIKE A HIGHER INTEREST RATE ENVIRONMENT MAKES INVESTORS A LITTLE BIT MORE DISCRETIONARY, AND COMPANIES A LITTLE BIT MORE DISCRETIONARY IN TERMS OF THEIR SPEND. ONE THING I WANT TO ASK YOU BEFORE WE GO, WE HAVE ABOUT A MINUTE AND A HALF, YOU’VE WORKED WITH KEVIN WARSH, HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING THAT PROBABLY MOST OF US DON’T. JAY POWELL TALKED A LOT ABOUT STRUGGLING AMERICANS. IS THIS A FED, IN YOUR VIEW, THAT’S LOOKING AT THE ENTIRE ECONOMY, AND WHAT DO WE NEED TO UNDERSTAND ABOUT KEVIN WARSH, WHO’S STILL NEW TO THE JOB? CLAUDIA: THE FED, AND I THINK IT’S REALLY IMPORTANT. THE FED IS MUCH MORE THAN ITS CHAIR. THERE’S THE COMMITTEE AS A WHOLE. AND EVEN INCLUDING THE CHAIR, THEY’RE GOING TO LOOK AT A REALLY WIDE RANGE OF INFORMATION ABOUT THE ECONOMY, AND WHAT SETS THE FED APART, KEEP IN MIND WE HAVE A REALLY LIMITED TOOL KIT, PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT MONETARY POLICY. THEY HAVE AN INTEREST RATE TOOL THAT REALLY IS MEANT TO SMOOTH OUT THE UPS AND DOWNS AND DEMAND. KEEP US FROM OVERHEATING. BUT I REALLY THINK, WHEN WE LOOK AT THE U.S. ECONOMY RIGHT NOW, IT’S NOT THESE FLUCTUATIONS AND DEMAND, IT’S ALL THAT’S GOING ON UNDER THE HOOD, LIKE THE SLOWING LABOR FORCE GROWTH AND THIS GENERAL PURPOSE TECHNOLOGY THAT WE’RE TRYING TO WRAP OUR HANDS AROUND. THE FED IS PAYING ATTENTION TO ALL THIS, BUT THEY HAVE PRETTY LIMITED ABILITY TO STEP IN AND CHANGE THE COURSE. SO I THINK THAT’S -- THE FED IS A LOT LIKE THE FED WAS BEFORE. KEVIN WARSH IS STILL LEARNING ON THE JOB. I THINK HE’S POINTED IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION. DEFINITELY RECEIVE SOME IMPROVEMENT. I’D LIKE TO SEE SOME BETTER COMMUNICATION. I THINK IT REALLY IS IMPORTANT, NOT JUST TO SPEAK TO FINANCIAL MARKETS, BUT TO SPEAK TO THE AMERICAN PEOPLE, TO SPEAK TO THE ONES WHO ARE ACTUALLY GOING TO BEAR THE BRUNT OF THE FED’S DECISIONS. CAROL: AMEN, SISTER. CAN I SAY THAT? CLAUDIA STAHM, THANK YOU SO MUCH. THIS IS WHAT WE WERE HOPING TO DO. THANK YOU FOR GIVING US SUCH A BIG CHUNK OF TIME. DR. CLAUDIA SAHM FROM NEWS CENTURY ADVISORS, FOUNDER OF SAHM CONSULTING AND A REGULAR CONTRIBUTOR TO BLOOMBERG OPINION. COMING UP, WHO KNEW? ANOTHER GAME, OTHER GAME OF FOOTBALL, NOT SOCCER, APPARENTLY YOU KNOW THIS GAME. WE’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT FLAG FOOTBALL. ♪ CHARLIE: IT'S 2:40 ON WALL STREET. WE CHECK MARKETS ALL DAY LONG HERE. THE DOW, S&P, NASDAQ ALL DECLINING. A SELLOFF IN CHIPMAKERS SENDING STOCKS LOWER AS A NEWS REPORT ON OPENAI’S REVENUE INTENSIFIED WORRIES THAT THE A.I. SPENDING SPREE IS BECOMING HARDER TO JUSTIFY. ALSO, WE’VE GOT OIL MOVING HIGHER. WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE UP 3.7% RIGHT NOW, $91.54 A PAYROLL. S&P DOWN 45. 77.56 WHERE WE STAND. DOW INDUSTRIALS DOWN UNDER .1%. NASDAQ DOWN 368. FOR NASDAQ, A DROP OF 1.3%. TWO-YEARAT 4.75%. 10-YEAR, 5.23%. AND THE 30-YEAR, 5.60%. GOLD, MEANWHILE, UP .3%, $4123 AN OUNCE. CRUDE UP 3.7%. BARREL OF BRENT, 104.45, UP 4.2%. EARLIER IN THE DAY WE DID SEE BRENT CRUDE TRADING ABOVE 05. CHIPOTLE SHARES ARE JUMPING AFTER THE F.T. REPORTED THAT STARBUCKS HAS WORKED WITH ADVISERS IN RECENT MONTHS ON A TAKEOVER PROPOSAL FOR THE BURRITO CHAIN. NOW, IF YOU WANT TO CONNECT THE DOTS, BRIAN NICHOL, STARBUCKS C.E.O. SINCE 2024, PREVIOUSLY WAS THE TOP EXECUTIVE AT CHIPOTLE. CHIPOTLE MEXICAN GRAIL SHARES UP 7.3%. STARBUCKS SHARES ARE LOWER BY 7.3%. CAROL AND STACEY, THAT’S A BLOOMBERG BUSINESS FLASH. CAROL: CHARLIE, THANK YOU SO MUCH. STACEY IN FOR TIM ON THIS THURSDAY. WHO KNEW, BUT FLAG FOOTBALL IS HAVING A MOMENT. STACEY: IT IS. IT’S GOING TO BE IN THE OLYMPICS. CAROL: I AM KIND OF BLOWN AWAY. YOUTH FLAG PARTICIPATION HAS SOARED IN AN IMPOSSIBLE SHORT TIME. LET’S GET RIGHT TO IT. LET’S GET TO IT WITH AMANDA MULL, SENIOR REPORTER AT BLOOMBERG BLOOMBERG WEEK. SHE’S HERE IN OUR STUDIO. WHAT IS GOING ON? AMANDA: A LOT OF GIRLS ARE PLAYING FLAG FOOTBALL. ALL THE WAY THROUGH HIGH SCHOOL. EVEN SOME COLLEGE NOW, MORE COLLEGES ARE ADDING TEAMS. IN A REALLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. GIRLS’ PARTICIPATION IN FLAG FOOTBALL HAS JUST GONE ABSOLUTELY THROUGH THE ROOF. STACEY: AND ALSO, THERE’S A LOT OF INVESTMENT MONEY COMING IN FROM PLACES THAT YOU MIGHT NOT EXPECT, LIKE THE NFL. AMANDA: THE NFL, HONESTLY, IS UNDERWRITING THIS, ALONG WITH HIS INVESTMENT PARTNERS, WHICH INCLUDES VERY BIG FIRMS LIKE SIXTH STREET AND BESS MEASURE VIN PARTNERS -- BESS HE MEASURE, YOU HAVE A LOT OF MONEY GOING INTO IT. THAT MEANS YOUTH, THAT MEANS HIGH SCHOOL, COLLEGE, AND A PRO LEAGUE THAT IS SCHEDULED TO LAUNCH IN 2027. YOU HAVE A LOT OF MONEY FLOODING INTO THE SPORT IN ORDER TO MAKE, YOU KNOW, CLUB TEAMS, MAKE REC TEAMS TO SEND KIDS OF EQUIPMENT TO LOCAL SCHOOLS SO THEY CAN PLAY FLAG IN GYM CLASS AND LEARN HOW THE RULES ARE DIFFERENT THAN TACKLE FOOTBALL. YOU HAVE THIS STRUG HIDING IN PLAIN SIGHT. CAROL: WHY WOULD THE NFL POUR MONEY INTO A GAME THAT SEEMS TO GRANT THE MOST COMMON CRITICISMS OF FLAG FOOTBALL? MONEY, IS IT MONEY TO BE MADE? EYE BALLS TO CATCH? AMANDA: A LITTLE BIT OF BOTH. SOMETHING THAT HAS BEEN FASCINATING TO ME FOR A LONG TIME IS THAT WHEN YOU LOOK AT WHO BECOMES A SPORTS FAN, IT’S ALMOST ALWAYS PEOPLE WHO PLAYED A SPORT, ANY SPORT IN CHILDHOOD. AND YOU HAVE A SITUATION RIGHT NOW ACROSS PRO SPORTS, NOT JUST THE NFL, WHERE A LOT OF KIDS ARE NOT PLAYING SPORTS THAT THEY WOULD HAVE PLAYED A GENERATION AGO. YOU HAVE A DECREASE IN PARTICIPATION, ESPECIALLY IN TEAM SPORTS. AND THEN YOU HAVE MORE YOUNG PEOPLE NOT SELF-IDENTIFYING AS SPORTS FANS. SO PROFESSIONAL LEAGUES OF ALL KINDS NEED TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO GET MORE KIDS PLAYING. AND FOR FOOTBALL IN PARTICULAR, YOU HAVE THIS INCREASE IN CONCERN ABOUT HEAD INJURIES AND ABOUT HOW PLAYING FOOTBALL MIGHT AFFECT THE HEALTH OF KIDS DOWN THE LINE. SO YOU HAVE MORE PARENTS WHO ARE LIKE, MY KID IS NOT GOING TO PLAY. HOW DO YOU TEACH KIDS ABOUT FOOTBALL, TEACH KIDS TO LOVE FOOTBALL, TEACH KIDS TO BE FUTURE FANS? THAT IS ALL VERY IMPORTANT FOR NFL. CAROL: I JUST WANTED TO -- I ACTUALLY DID PLAY FLAG FOOTBALL. DID I SOME FLAG FOOTBALL IN HIGH SCHOOL. NOW, THIS IS ME BEING A CHEERLEADER. THAT’S ME IN THE LOWER LEFT. SO I CHEERED FOR BASKETBALL AND FOOTBALL, BUT I PLAYED FLAG FOOTBALL IN FOOTBALL. LIKE, IT WAS A THING. THEY WANTED US TO UNDERSTAND THE GAME AND PLAY IT. SO I AM CURIOUS, BECAUSE YOU SAY THIS HAS BEEN LONG IN COMING. THERE’S BEEN OTHER THINGS AT PLAY THAT HAVE BROUGHT THIS TO LIGHT. AMANDA: RIGHT, WOMEN’S SPORTS IN GENERAL, WHICH IS A SUBJECT OF A BIG PACKAGE OF STORIES IN OUR NOVEMBER ISSUE OF "BUSINESS WEEK," HAS BEEN GROWING FOR A LONG TIME, SINCE TITLE IX PASSED IN 1972 WHEN SCHOOLS WERE FINDING MORE WAYS TO GET FEMALE ATHLETES ON THE FIELD IN ORDER TO BE COMPLIANCE FOR FEDERAL LAW. SO YOU HAVE THIS SORT OF LONG STORY OF WOMEN GETTING MORE INTERESTED IN PARTICIPATING IN SPORTS, PUTTING THEIR DAUGHTERS IN SPORTS. BUT THERE’S NEVER REALLY BEEN A GOOD WAY TO DO THAT TO A GRAND SCALE IN FOOTBALL, BECAUSE WOMEN GENERALLY DON’T PLAY TACKLE FOOTBALL. THERE’S NEVER BEEN A BIG PUSH TO GET THEM IN AS PARTICIPANTS. IN MOST OF THE COUNTRY THERE WASN’T ANY FLAG INFRASTRUCTURE. IT WASN’T A SANCTIONED CHAMPIONSHIP SPORT. BASICALLY ANYWHERE. SO THE NFL HAS PUT A LOT OF EFFORT INTO FUNDING DRIVES TO GET IT SANCTIONED IN STATES ACROSS THE COUNTRY, SO THAT IT CAN BE PART OF SCHOOL SPORTS. NOW THAT IT’S PLAYING OUT, WHERE THESE KIDS WANT TO GO TO COLLEGE AND PLAY SPORTS, AND, YOU KNOW, COLLEGES ALSO NEED TO BE IN COMPLIANCE WITH TITLE IX, AND THEY WANT TO INCREASE ACTIVITIES TO ATTRACT MORE STUDENTS, ESPECIALLY FOR SMALL SCHOOLS THAT ARE TUITION-DEPENDENT. SPLITTING UP THE TEAMS IS SUDDENLY IN THE BEST INTEREST OF A LOT OF DIFFERENT PLAYERS. AND THEN THE NFL ALSO I THINK WANTS A PIECE OF THE WNBA PIE. THEY WANT TO BE ABLE TO LAUNCH A WOMEN’S LEAGUE THAT CAN ATTRACT FANS IN THE SAME WAY THAT THE WNBA HAS. STACEY: AMANDA, FOR THIS STORY, YOU WENT AND VISITED A TOURNAMENT. THERE WERE PEOPLE IN FROM ALL OVER THE WORLD. WILL YOU DESCRIBE THIS? IT WAS SO CHARMING. AMANDA: I HAD SUCH A GREAT TIME. IT WAS ONE OF THOSE THINGS, YOU REALLY HAVE TO SEE THIS TO BELIEVE HOW BIG OF A FENN UNANIMOUS IT’S BECOME. I WENT IN INDIANA IN JULY TO GO TO THE NFL FLAG CHAMPIONSHIPS, WHICH IS THIS MAMMOTH TOURNAMENT WITH 350 TEAMS, BOTH GIRLS AND BOYS AND COED TEAMS, YOU KNOW, TEAMS FROM AS FAR AWAY AS NEW ZEALAND. BECAUSE FLAG HAS HAD A BIG INTERNATIONAL PICKUP. IT’S A SIMPLE GAME. YOU DON’T NEED A LOT OF EQUIPMENT. YOU DON’T NEED A ROSTER OF 53 PEOPLE. SO YOU CAN, IT’S A LOT EASIER TO SPREAD THE SPORT. AND WHAT I SAW AT THIS TOURNAMENT WAS JUST SO MANY KIDS HAVING SO MUCH FUN. STRUCTURALLY IT VARIES FROM TACKLE FOOTBALL IN THAT THE PLAYERS THAT YOU GET ARE LIKE THE PERSONALITY POSITIONS. FIVE-ON-FIVE FORMAT IS WIDE RECEIVERS, IT’S DEFENSIVE BACKS, IT’S QUARTERBACKS, IT’S PASS RUSHERS. SO YOU GET A LOT OF THE BIG, EXCITING ACTION OF TACKLE FOOTBALL, BUT DOWNFIELD PASSING, THE INTERCEPTIONS. CAROL: HAVE TO THROW A SPIRAL. AMANDA: YEAH, YOU HAVE TO SPIN IT. CAROL: WERE YOU A QUARTERBACK? AMANDA: YOU GET REALLY EXCITING, QUICK GAMES. TWO OF THE GAMES THAT I WATCHED THE FIRST PLAY FROM SCRIMMAGE WAS A LONG TOUCHDOWN PASS STRAIGHT INTO THE END ZONE. IT’S SUPER FUN TO WATCH. THESE GIRLS ARE HAVING SO MUCH FUN. THEY HAVE SO MUCH SWAGGER. IT WAS REALLY JUST LIKE A JOY TO BEHOLD THESE ATHLETES GETTING TO COMPETE LIKE THIS, IN A WAY THAT DIDN’T EXIST FIVE YEARS AGO. CAROL: FOR ANYTHING TO KIND OF GROW BIG I FEEL LIKE IN SPORTS THERE HAS TO BE BROADCAST RIGHTS. SO WHAT’S HAPPENING THERE? AMANDA: WELL, THE TOURNAMENT THAT I WATCHED, EVEN THOUGH IT WAS A YOUTH SPORTS TOURNAMENT, THE NFL, OF COURSE, HAS MEDIA PARTNERS. THEY HAVE BROADCAST PARTNERS. SO THE TOURNAMENT ITSELF WAS BROADCAST MANY OF THE GAMES, ESPECIALLY IN THE OLDER DIVISIONS ACROSS ABC, ESPN, AND THE ESPN FAMILY OF STREAMING SERVICES. THE GIRLS CHAMPIONSHIP GAME WAS THE HIGHEST RATED OF THOSE BROADCASTS. IT WAS ON ABC EARLY ON SUNDAY EVENING IN JULY, AND IT HAD MORE THAN A MILLION VIEWERS ACROSS PLATFORMS. LIKE, IT HAD A REAL AUDIENCE. IT’S FUN TO WATCH. YOU PICK IT UP QUICK IF YOU KNOW ABOUT TACKLE FOOTBALL. THE 2027 PRO LEAGUE IS STILL BEING SORT OF SPUN UP. I’VE HEARD SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER OR NOT IT’S GOING TO LAUNCH ON TIME. I DON’T HAVE ANY NEW REPORTING ON THAT. BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE NFL’S ADVOCACY IN BROADCASTING. CAROL: JUST 20 SECONDS, YOU TALK ABOUT MOMS AND THEIR DAUGHTERS, BUT THE DADS GET REALLY EMOTIONAL, JUST REALLY QUICKLY, RIGHT? AMANDA: I TALKED TO SO MANY DADS WHO NEARLY CRIED IN FRONT OF ME. I FELT LIKE I WAS GOING TO CRY SOMETIMES. THESE DADS WERE SO EXCITED TO SHARE THIS SPORT WITH THEIR DAUGHTER IN A WAY THEY NEVER THOUGHT THEY COULD. CAROL: I TOLD YOU, ANOTHER GREAT STORY. THANK YOU SO MUCH. IT’S ON THE BLOOMBERG. CHECK IT OUT. GREAT LITTLE STORIES FROM SOME OF THE DIFFERENT PLAYERS. IT’S JUST GREAT. AMANDA, SENIOR WRITER AT BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK. WHEN WE COME BACK, STACEY AND I WILL CHECK STOCKS ON THE MOVE. >> THIS IS "BLOOMBERG BUSINESS WEEK DAILY" WITH CAROL MASSAR AND TIM STENOVEC ON BLOOMBERG RADIO AND TELEVISION. CAROL: EVERYBODY, ALL RIGHT, CAROL MASSAR IS STACEY IS IN FOR TIM ON THIS THURSDAY. AND WE ARE JUST ABOUT INTO THE LAST HOUR OF TRADE ON THIS THURSDAY. INTERESTING DAY ONCE AGAIN. I FEEL LIKE IT’S A TRADE, STACEY, WE’VE SEEN MANY TIMES. YOU KIND OF SAID IT AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR. HIGHER ENERGY PRICES AND WE LEARNED MORE ABOUT WHAT THE FED IS GOING TO HAVE TO DO. STACEY: IT SEEMS LIKE THINGS ARE DOING QUITE WELL, BUT ANY SMALL MISSTEP, AND THE IMPACTS ARE SO BIG. CAROL: WE SAW THE SENSITIVITY IN THE MARKET. SO WE DO HAVE EQUITIES NEAR THEIR LOWS OF THE SESSION, DOWN ABOUT .6% ON THE S&P 500. YOU’VE GOT THE DOW, CONSIDER THAT PRETTY MUCH FLAT, 1 AND 1.5% TO THE DOWNSIDE ON THE NASDAQ 100. I’M GOING TO PULL UP A TREASURY TRADE. SHORT END, MOST SENSITIVE TO WHAT THE FED MAY OR MAY NOT DO. A YIELD OF 4.74% ON THE TWO-YEAR NOTE. LONGER END OF THE YIELD CURVE, WE’RE LOOKING AT 5.22. WE KNOW WE HAVE BEEN HIGHER THAN THAT WHEN IT COMES TO YIELDS. I’M CAROL MASSAR ALONG WITH STACEY VANEK SMITH. WITH US TO LOOK AT THE STOCKS IS MATTHEW GRIFFIN, BLOOMBERG NEWS EQUITIES REPORTER. GOOD TO HAVE YOU HERE. WE HAVE TO TALK ABOUT CHIPOTLE. WHEN THAT HEADLINE CROSSED, I WAS LIKE WHAT? TELL US WHAT’S GOING ON. MATTHEW: GREAT TO BE HERE, AND GREAT TO TALK ABOUT IT. I MEAN, JUST A REMARKABLE REPORT FROM THE "FINANCIAL TIMES" THAT HAS CHIPOTLE, CMG, UP ABOUT 6% NOW. SO THAT REPORT IS THAT STARBUCKS HAS TALKED TO ADVISORS ABOUT A POTENTIAL OFFER TO TAKE OVER THE FAST CASUAL CHAIN. I MEAN, THIS WOULD BE A BLOCKBUSTER MEGA MERGER IN THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY. THERE’S ZERO GUARANTEE THAT IT’S GOING TO COME TO PASS. BUT WE ARE SEEING CHIPOTLE POPPING TODAY. WE’RE SEEING STARBUCKS, SBUX, DOWN 2.5%. THAT’S THE TYPICAL DEAL TRADE THAT YOU GET, AND THERE ARE ALSO SOME REASONS TO THINK THIS COULD BE A POSITIVE FOR CHIPOTLE. CAROL: THERE’S TWO WORDS, BRIAN NICHOL. MATTHEW: YES, SO HE WOULD BE REUNITED, HE’S THE C.E.O. OF STARBUCKS NOW, BUT REUNITED WITH THE COMPANY WHERE HE MADE HIS NAME, A COMPANY THAT’S SEEN ITS STOCK FALL ABOUT 40% SINCE HE LEFT. AND THEN ON THE STARBUCKS SIDE, YOU’VE HEARD CONCERNS FROM ANALYSTS ABOUT WITH THEM IN THE MIDDLE OF THEIR OWN TURNAROUND EFFORT, WOULD MANAGEMENT BE ABLE TO RUN TWO LARGE BUSINESSES WELL, TWO BUSINESSES WITHOUT A TON OF OVERLAP, EVEN THOUGH THEY’RE BOTH IN THE RESTAURANT INDUSTRY BROADLY. STACEY: COFFEE AND BURRITO, I THINK THERE COULD BE SYNERGY THERE. CAROL: TOTALLY. I TOTALLY AGREE WITH YOU. GUAC AND BURRITOS? MATTHEW: IT’S ALL BEANS, DIFFERENT KINDS OF BEANS. CAROL: THAT’S REALLY FUNNY. WELL DONE. THERE’S A HEADLINE FOR YOU. MOVING ON TO CHIPOTLE, THE STOCK UP 5.7%. LEVI, EARNINGS LAST NIGHT AFTER THE CLOSE. MATTHEW: THAT STOCK HAS RECOVERED SOME LOSSES. IT’S DOWN ABOUT 2.5%. THE KEY NUMBER FOR INVESTORS HAS BEEN THE SLOWEST SALES GROWTH SINCE 2022 IN THEIR DIRECT TO CONSUMER CHANNELS. REVENUE FROM THEIR OWN STORES AND WEBSITE GREW JUST 2% IN THE MOST RECENT QUARTER. THERE WAS A MARKETING MISSTEP HERE THAT LED TO THAT. SO THEY WENT ALL IN ON BAGGY JEANS FOR THE BACK TO SCHOOL SEASON. TURNS OUT THAT LOW WASTED JEANS, LOW-RISE JEANS ARE ALL THE RAGE RIGHT NOW. SO THEY JUST DIDN’T HAVE THE MESSAGE EITHER. STACEY: I’M NOT EXCITED ABOUT LOW WASTED JEANS. PARTICIPATINGY JEANS, I CAN GET BEHIND. MATTHEW: JUST A YEAR OR TWO AGO, EVERYONE WAS RISING ABOUT IT. CAROL: THE BARREL I CAN’T GET. I TRIED THEM ON A FEW DIFFERENT. I FEEL AWKWARD. MATTHEW: I LIKE A STRAIGHT CUT. KEEP IT CLASSIC, NOTHING TOO FANCY. CAROL: I HAVE THAT RIGHT NOW AS WE SPEAK. ALREADY EVI DOWN ABOUT 2.5%. LATHAM, THEY’RE INVOLVED IN THE SWIMMING POOL BUSINESS. MATTHEW: THIS IS KIND OF A FUN SECTOR TO WATCH. OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS, THIS STOCK, TICKER IS SWIM, THEY’RE DOWN ABOUT 5%. THE NEWS TODAY IS THAT THEY GOT DOWNGRADED AT WILLIAM BLAIR TO A HOLD EQUIVALENT RATING. THAT ANALYST IS POINTING TO THE MACRO ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT. YOU HAVE HIGHER BOND YIELDS, HIGHER INTEREST RATES. THAT TENDS TO FREES UP THE HOUSING MARKET. IT MEANS IF YOU’RE NOT BUYING A HOUSE, YOU PROBABLY AREN’T BUILDING A BRAND-NEW POOL. AND EVEN IF YOU OWN A HOUSE, YOU DON’T WANT TO MAKE A BIG PURCHASE IN THIS ENVIRONMENT MUCH THIS IS NOT NEW FOR THE POOL SECTOR. ALONG WITH BUILDING PRODUCT STOCKS, THIEF BEEN UNDER A LOT OF PRESSURE IN THE POST-COVID ERA, AFTER THIS BIG BOOM IN POOL BUILDING, WHICH NOW IS LONG OVER. CAROL: I WAS JUST GOING BACK TO MAY OF 2021, THEY WERE ALMOST A $33 A SHARE STOCK. IT’S NOW ABOUT $6. YOU’RE RIGHT, PEOPLE WERE AT HOME BUYING PILLOWS AND COUCHES, BUT THEY WERE ALSO INVESTING IN SWIMMING POOLS. MATTHEW: THESE GUYS, PENTAIR, THINGS LIKE WATER FLOW EQUIPMENT, I MEAN, ALL OF THESE STOCKS HAVE BEEN SWINGING AROUND WILDLY. CAROL: AND THE TICKER ALONE IS A LOT OF FUN. GOOD STUFF. MATTHEW GRIFFIN, BLOOMBERG NEWS U.S. EQUITIES REPORTER WITH OUR STOCK MOVERS. CHECK OUT OUR PODCAST, FIVE-MINUTE EPISODES OF WINNERS AND LOSERS IN THE STOCK MARKET. FIND IT ON APPLE, SPOTIFY OR ANYWHERE YOU GET PODCASTS. FOLKS, WE ARE HEADING INTO THE LAST HOUR OF TRADING. WE’RE GOING TO TALK ABOUT THE CHIPOTLE DEAL WITH RAY BROWN. STACEY: I’M SO EXCITED IN THIS. CAROL: I FIND IT FASCINATING. BRIAN NICHOL COULD DO NO BELONG AT STARBUCKS. HE MADE SOME CHANGES AFTER COVID. WE’RE GOING TO GET INTO THAT. ALSO, WE ARE GOING TO TALK A LITTLE BIT ABOUT A BLOOMBERG REPORT, SOME ANALYSIS ON HOW LONG SHOT WAGERS ARE LOSING 98% OF THE TIME. THAT’S WHAT DOMINATES SOME OF THOSE PREDICTION MARKETS, SO