Bitcoin and gold are having the kind of year their biggest supporters usually warn everyone else about. Both are sitting at the bottom of the major investment rankings for 2026, while cash parked in short-term US Treasury bills is actually making money.
Creative Planning strategist Charlie Bilello puts Bitcoin’s loss at 7.3% and gold’s at 7.5% through October 25. He says his records have never shown the two ranking together in last place during any calendar year.
Bitcoin and gold are losing while stocks and commodities climb
The comparison gets worse when you look at what else investors could have owned. A broad commodities basket has jumped 52.5% this year. Large US stocks have gained 12.3%, and short-term Treasury bills have returned 2.9%.
That last number is particularly painful for anyone who bought Bitcoin or bullion to escape the problems of ordinary money.
Bilello tracks 21 asset classes going back to 2011. Only 57% are showing positive returns in 2026, so it hasn’t been an easy year across the board. Still, the two assets often sold as protection against inflation and economic chaos have ended up trailing even conservative investments.
Source: Charlie Bilello/X
Gold’s reversal has been especially sharp. It surged 63.7% in 2025, the strongest year in Bilello’s table, then climbed above $5,400 an ounce early in 2026. By Friday, spot prices had dropped to $3,995.81, slipping under $4,000 for the first time since July.
Bullion recovered slightly on Monday. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,008.70 by 0755 GMT, while US gold futures for December delivery advanced 0.3% to $4,021.90. That came after a 4% weekly decline, the steepest since June, and a move to the lowest spot price since mid-July.
Bitcoin hasn’t offered much comfort either. The crypto is priced at $80,472, around 35% below its record above $126,000 last October. If its losses hold, 2026 will become its second consecutive negative year, following a 6.3% decline in 2025.
That doesn’t erase its longer history. Since 2011, Bilello calculates an average yearly return of 120.6% for Bitcoin, compared with 6.3% for gold. But historical averages don’t pay this year’s bills.
Oil prices and Fed expectations are making things harder
This is the challenge facing both assets, since neither earns interest. When US interest rates are expected to go higher, bonds along with all other interest-earning investments become more attractive. Holding on to either gold or Bitcoin therefore becomes even more costly.
And there’s also oil putting additional pressure on inflation expectations. Brent crude reached $116 per barrel on Friday as tensions escalated between the US and Iran. High energy prices could increase consumer prices and give the Fed another reason to maintain tight monetary policy.
ING analysts said the precious metal couldn’t even benefit from a selloff in technology shares. Instead, they said the market:
“…appears more focused on higher oil prices and what it could mean for inflation.”
There are efforts to cool the situation. Qatari mediators were in Tehran on Sunday, coordinating with the United States to ease regional tensions.
The October 27-28 FOMC meeting is another important event to look out for. Investors expect interest rates to remain unchanged for now; however, expectations for an increase in December have increased significantly: according to one CME FedWatch estimate, the probability is currently 68%, whereas another one is as high as 79%.
Another event to keep an eye on is the PCE inflation data release scheduled for Thursday, which is one of the indicators used by the Fed in its efforts to reach 2% inflation rate target.
There is another wrinkle in Bitcoin’s story. Despite Wall Street’s growing involvement , researchers still cannot identify the owners of most coins. Galaxy’s October snapshot classified 11.1 million BTC, roughly 55% of total supply, as unattributed.
Galaxy research head Alex Thorn wrote on X:
“More than half of all BTC supply is sitting in addresses with no known attribution despite all the institutionalization and centralized ownership over the years, still a ton of bitcoin (maybe even most) is held by individuals in self-custody.”
This number is not conclusive evidence that every unknown wallet is owned by individuals. This could be institutional accounts that were unidentified by Galaxy, and also coins whose private keys were lost by their owners.
In other metals trading, silver climbed by 0.2% to reach $54, platinum declined by 0.3% to $1,546.18 and palladium declined by 0.5% to $1,038.85. There are only two months left before the end of 2026.
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